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00:00:02Now on BBC News, the latest from New York and around the world.
00:00:05world. Business Today. MUSIC
00:00:16Live from New York at the
00:00:17opening bell. This is Business Today.
00:00:20Today. Tech stocks rebound after
00:00:22after last week's heavy losses. Oil
00:00:25Oil prices dipped despite more attacks attacks on tankers in the Gulf as
00:00:29as talks raised the prospect of a
00:00:31a diplomatic solution to the war
00:00:34war and exodus fears investors pour
00:00:37pour billions of dollars out of Binance
00:00:39Binance as the hacked crypto exchange
00:00:42exchange reopens for withdrawals.
00:00:44withdrawals. Also, price pain at
00:00:46at the ballot on the eve of the midterms.
00:00:49midterms. Despite a strong economy, economy, voters are increasingly
00:00:52increasingly frustrated at the impact
00:00:53impact of rising inflation. Welcome
00:00:59Welcome to Business Today live from from New York. I'm Michelle Fleury
00:01:02Fleury and we start here on Wall Wall Street where US stocks are staging
00:01:05staging a recovery following last last week's heavy losses as investors
00:01:09investors turn their attention to to a busy week of company earnings.
00:01:12earnings. Apple, the tech giant, giant, is due to report after the
00:01:15the closing bell today. Qualcomm Qualcomm will come out with its report
00:01:19report later this week. Markets will will also be focused on this week's
00:01:22week's midterm elections, with the the potential implications for the
00:01:25the economic and policy outlook firmly firmly on investors radar. We'll
00:01:28We'll have more on that shortly. shortly. Meanwhile, oil prices are
00:01:32are moving lower, hitting a two week
00:01:35week low after Iran's foreign ministry ministry said it is considering a
00:01:38a two day plan to reopen the Strait
00:01:40Strait of Hormuz amid indirect talks
00:01:42talks with the United States. Well, Well, for more on all of this, let's
00:01:46let's bring in our markets guest guest Joy Yang Global head of Index
00:01:49Index Product Management at MarketVector MarketVector Indexes. Joy, good to
00:01:52to see you this morning. Let's start
00:01:55start with AI. Is the mood starting starting to shift? We saw a report
00:01:59report this morning that open AI's AI's latest fundraising is coming
00:02:03coming in at less than half of its
00:02:05its original target. Our investors investors becoming more discerning
00:02:09discerning when it comes to which
00:02:10which AI stocks to invest in. I think
00:02:14think definitely and we saw that
00:02:15that last week with some of the earnings earnings announcements around the
00:02:19the big AI companies that there is
00:02:23is clearly a refocus on AI, not just
00:02:26just the positive aspects, because because all these companies had strong
00:02:29strong revenues, but now we're focusing focusing on what we're looking at,
00:02:32at, the dark side of AI, which is
00:02:34is it costs a lot of money and people
00:02:36people are looking at how our companies companies financing those costs,
00:02:40costs, but also clearly, as we saw
00:02:43saw last week, that there are vulnerabilities
00:02:46vulnerabilities around AI across across not just AI companies but
00:02:50but companies across all industries industries because, you know, we're we're looking at cybersecurity risk,
00:02:54risk, we're looking at operating operating costs, we're looking at
00:02:57at competition. If you don't adopt
00:02:58adopt AI. So all of this will feed
00:03:01feed into how people react to the the earnings that we're going to
00:03:04to see over the next couple of weeks.
00:03:07weeks. Yeah, I mean obviously Apple Apple in focus today because it reports
00:03:10reports after the market close it's it's really been a standout. I mean
00:03:13mean its share price what up more more than 25% so far this year. Why
00:03:17Why do you think it's being viewed viewed differently say to a Google
00:03:20Google whose parent company alphabet. alphabet. I mean we saw that remarkable remarkable trillion dollars being
00:03:24being wiped off its value last week.
00:03:27week. Yeah, I think it comes down down to the cost of financing and
00:03:31and the CapEx that companies are are piling into this. It costs a
00:03:35a lot of money, and we're seeing seeing that there's also a differentiation
00:03:38differentiation between companies companies like Google versus Amazon
00:03:43Amazon or Microsoft. And we saw how
00:03:46how Microsoft is very disciplined disciplined about their AI CapEx
00:03:49CapEx spending. So still has positive positive cash flow. Whereas companies
00:03:53companies like Google and Amazon Amazon are now dipping into their
00:03:56their cash flows and investors are
00:04:01are they're not they're not optimistic
00:04:07optimistic about the prospects of of AI. But when will it get here
00:04:10here and how long will it take. Patience
00:04:14Patience running thin Joy Yang at
00:04:16at MarketVector index is always good
00:04:19good to chat. Now, with just 24 hours
00:04:23hours left, the final campaign rallies rallies are being held in the United
00:04:27United States ahead of tomorrow's tomorrow's midterm elections. The
00:04:30The stakes are high. Polls suggest suggest the ruling Republican Party
00:04:33Party could lose its majority in in the House of Representatives and
00:04:37and potentially even the Senate, Senate, a result that could make make it harder for President Trump
00:04:40Trump to push through his agenda agenda during the final two years
00:04:44years of his term. And for investors, investors, while the implications
00:04:48implications go far beyond Washington Washington politics, the outcome
00:04:51outcome could shape everything from from government spending and tax
00:04:54tax policy to energy markets and and the enormous investment pouring
00:04:58pouring into artificial intelligence. intelligence. All of this as voters
00:05:02voters grapple with the rising cost cost of living with inflation driven
00:05:05driven by surging oil prices from
00:05:07from the war with Iran. So what are
00:05:09are markets watching most closely, closely, and how much could the election
00:05:13election change the investment outlook? outlook? Well, let's bring in Terry
00:05:15Terry Haynes, founder of Pangaea Pangaea Policy, a consultancy that
00:05:19that advises Wall Street on US policy
00:05:22policy decisions. Terry. Let's start
00:05:24start with this. You know, how closely closely are markets paying attention
00:05:28attention to this? Are they watching watching the politics of this or
00:05:31or are they more focused on, on tech
00:05:32tech stocks? Good morning Michelle. Michelle. And you know I do think
00:05:36think they're focused on the entire
00:05:38entire gamut of this. But the market
00:05:42market implications of this are, are, I think, somewhat surprisingly
00:05:45surprisingly small. Even should Democrats
00:05:48Democrats eke out a majority in both
00:05:50both houses. The American system
00:05:53system is fundamentally different
00:05:55different from the UK system in that
00:05:57that the parliamentary party majority
00:06:00majority cannot automatically run
00:06:03run through an agenda and the President President will be there to veto it.
00:06:07it. Number one. Number two, the major major things from foreign policy
00:06:10policy to AI spending and support
00:06:12support are things that frankly,
00:06:14frankly, are going to be beyond Congress.
00:06:18Congress. So the likelihood of fundamental
00:06:21fundamental change is very small. small. The Democrats are not going
00:06:24going to be able to roll back tax tax policy. President would veto
00:06:28veto that. And they're not going
00:06:30going to be able to meaningfully meaningfully change the behaviour
00:06:34behaviour of regulatory agencies, agencies, which now assume a great
00:06:37great deal of importance in completing
00:06:38completing the Trump agenda. What
00:06:42What about if you see Democrats make
00:06:44make big gains and they start to
00:06:46to take over more of the chairs of of committees, would that make a
00:06:50a difference in terms of that power? power? It really doesn't make much
00:06:53much of a difference because the
00:06:55the committees are in charge of essentially
00:06:59essentially developing policy and and legislation for the floor, for
00:07:03for legislative action. Those legislative
00:07:05legislative actions will end up being
00:07:07being vetoed by the president almost
00:07:10almost regardless of what they are. are. Number one. Number two, the the majorities the Democrats will
00:07:14will have on a good night are so so small that they'll be have a hard
00:07:18hard time holding themselves together. together. I mean, we've already seen
00:07:22seen the President saying he's calling
00:07:23calling himself Mr Veto. The cost
00:07:26cost of living has been top of the
00:07:30the agenda for many voters. Do you you think we're going to see any
00:07:33any shift after the election in terms terms of inflation, in terms of the
00:07:37the Fed's path on interest rates, rates, sort of how much does the
00:07:40the midterm kind of impact any of
00:07:42of that? Well, the it does impact impact some, but the administration
00:07:45administration the administration administration is focused on the
00:07:48the Iran war as a transitory thing.
00:07:52thing. Whether that's true or not, not, we can all debate, but that's
00:07:55that's the way they look at it. And And they look at the economic numbers
00:07:58numbers that have come out most recently
00:08:02recently as confirmation that once
00:08:04once the Iran matter is settled there
00:08:07there can continue to be downward downward pressure on inflation. They
00:08:11They don't Pooh Pooh this, but they
00:08:12they do see it as transitory. Terry
00:08:16Terry Haynes, thank you very much.
00:08:18much. From Pangaea Policy, a consultancy consultancy that advises businesses
00:08:22businesses on Washington. Thank you.
00:08:25you. Now there have been fears of of a bank run on the cryptocurrency
00:08:29cryptocurrency exchange Binance after after it suffered the biggest ever
00:08:33ever crypto heist. Last week, Binance Binance reopened for withdrawals
00:08:36withdrawals for a few hours on Sunday Sunday and has admitted that billions
00:08:39billions of dollars have been taken taken out by customers. But the scale
00:08:43scale of that is still becoming clear. clear. So let's just show you the
00:08:45the numbers that we have so far.
00:08:47far. Binance says it suffered a net
00:08:50net outflow of $3.6 billion on Sunday, Sunday, but according to the Financial
00:08:54Financial Times, that figure is already already higher $5 billion based on
00:08:58on crypto analytics firm DeFi llama.
00:09:00llama. Either way, it's still a fraction fraction of the total funds held
00:09:04held by Binance, which it claims
00:09:08claims is $171 billion. Binance has, has, of course, pledged to cover
00:09:11cover any investor losses, but how how much long-term damage has been
00:09:15been done to Binance and to cryptocurrency cryptocurrency in general by last
00:09:19last week's security breach. Here's Here's the view of one expert. Look,
00:09:22Look, it's a big problem. Binance Binance is the world's largest crypto
00:09:25crypto exchange, so a place where where private individuals or businesses
00:09:29businesses or institutions can buy buy and sell crypto and a range of
00:09:32of other activities such as sending sending crypto earning interest by
00:09:35by market share. Binance is the largest largest organisation in the world
00:09:38world of its type by a significant significant margin. That's in terms
00:09:41terms of the assets it's holding holding and also those daily traded traded volumes. And of course it
00:09:45it is the largest hack in history. history. It's roughly four times
00:09:48times the size of the largest previous previous hack, which was an exchange
00:09:52exchange called Bybit in February
00:09:53February last year. So, you know, know, Reputationally, it is big,
00:09:57big, but in terms of sort of relative relative size, what was stolen in
00:10:00in the hack is a relatively small
00:10:02small proportion of what a huge asset
00:10:04asset class for over 2 trillion USD. USD. That's all the crypto in the
00:10:07the world together. So it's if you you phrase it another way, it's about
00:10:11about £1 worth of crypto for every
00:10:15every £400 worth in the world. So So bad news sort of reputationally
00:10:19reputationally bad news if you hold
00:10:20hold crypto. There was a $100 billion
00:10:23billion sell off as a result. But
00:10:26But equally, you know, the crypto
00:10:28crypto industry as a whole has a
00:10:31a number of other historical occasions occasions where bad news has come
00:10:33come out, whether it was the FTX FTX exchange collapsing or sort of
00:10:37of bad news related to regulation, regulation, and often that bad news
00:10:40news can be shrugged off. And some
00:10:42some of what's been lost in terms
00:10:44terms of value, I'd expect to see
00:10:47see come back. Yeah. Right now the the main cryptocurrencies Binance
00:10:50Binance and Tether both trading higher higher now to something that more
00:10:53more and more of us may be feeling feeling in the workplace amid our
00:10:56our fast changing technological world, world, as well as the challenges
00:11:00challenges that it brings. That is is stress left unaddressed, stress
00:11:03stress can affect your health and
00:11:05and wellbeing. Increasing sickness sickness absence and impacting workplace
00:11:09workplace performance. Nick Propper Propper is a human performance expert expert who's trained people working
00:11:13working in some of the most high high pressure environments in the
00:11:16the world, from the US Air Force Force to the sales floor at Goldman
00:11:19Goldman Sachs, he took us through through some of the advice he gives
00:11:22gives to help. Stress in and of itself
00:11:25itself actually is is not the issue. issue. And the avoidance of stress
00:11:29stress certainly isn't the answer. answer. But stress in the absence
00:11:31absence of recovery does become problematic.
00:11:34problematic. So the main message message is we need the stress that
00:11:37that actually creates the opportunity opportunity to optimise performance. performance. The opportunity for
00:11:41for us to grow as humans. But we
00:11:43we also have to pay attention to
00:11:46to where the growth happens and the the growth happens in the recovery
00:11:49recovery phase when we talk about about these stressors. So that's
00:11:53that's an important word. The stressor stressor is the thing that's delivering
00:11:56delivering the stress to the individual. individual. We often talk about them
00:11:59them in very big kind of macro descriptions descriptions like what's happening
00:12:03happening in Middle East, what's what's happening in my company, the
00:12:06the brain fundamentally doesn't like like that because it feels like it
00:12:10it has no control. We're just reacting reacting to whatever this thing is
00:12:13is going to do to us. So so for example, example, what we need to do in those
00:12:17those situations is start to pay
00:12:18pay attention to what we can control.
00:12:21control. And that shifts the focus focus from external to internal.
00:12:25internal. Now I'm going to decide decide how I interact with this situation,
00:12:29situation, however big, however complex, complex, I'm going to do it on my
00:12:32my terms and that calms the psychology psychology down. And that then in
00:12:36in turn calms our physiology down, down, which is very important in
00:12:39in our ability to sustain our performance performance without getting exhausted,
00:12:43exhausted, overwhelmed, or burning
00:12:45burning out. Meanwhile, just before
00:12:47before we go. Anthropic has released
00:12:49released an amendment to its IPO
00:12:52IPO filing to its stock market listing
00:12:54listing saying that it generated
00:12:57generated a $33 billion in revenue revenue for the nine months to September.
00:13:01September. It also reported a loss loss of $104 billion during that
00:13:04that same period. We'll have more more on that as we get it. And of of course, you can find much more
00:13:08more on the midterm elections here here on the BBC. But for now, that's
00:13:12that's it from Business Today. MUSIC
00:14:31with us on BBC News and we'll bring
00:14:33bring you the latest. MUSIC
00:14:49Being able to inspire someone
00:14:51is always the greatest joy. I saw
00:14:54saw Souza one time at the Grammys Grammys and she said that she studied studied some of my songs for their
00:14:58their songwriting, and I thought thought that that was the biggest
00:15:00biggest compliment ever. My support
00:15:02support for Ukraine is unwavering.
00:15:05unwavering. It is 100% when. The
00:15:07The big names talk, they talk to
00:15:11to us.
00:15:22Welcome back. Iran has seen a
00:15:24year of turbulence with widespread widespread street protests. That
00:15:27That brutal crackdown by the authorities. authorities. And of course, the start
00:15:30start of US Israeli war on the country. country. Now BBC Panorama has secured
00:15:34secured rare access to people inside inside Iran whose lives have been
00:15:38been changed forever by those events. events. Among them is a mother who
00:15:41who was forced to flee the country country after her daughter was killed
00:15:44killed during anti-government protests. protests. We're going to hear from from the producer and director of
00:15:48of this documentary in a moment. moment. But first, let's get a flavour
00:15:52flavour of it. Hey, I'm sorry to
00:15:57to contact you so late. Please