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00:00:03MUSIC
00:00:16Hello and welcome to The
00:00:17Context USA, our first in a series series of special programming from
00:00:21from our studios here in Washington, Washington, DC I'm Sumi Somaskanda.
00:00:24Somaskanda. And I'm Caitriona Perry Perry ahead this hour. It's the vote
00:00:28vote that could drastically change change the course of politics here
00:00:30here in the US and maybe around the
00:00:32the world. We're focusing on what
00:00:35what else the 2026 midterm
00:00:38elections. I'm not thinking about about myself on this election. I'm
00:00:41I'm thinking about the whole community. community. We should all be together
00:00:45together in the community as one
00:00:47one and try to vote for our best
00:00:50best interests, which is not the the current administration. As you
00:00:53you know, this is the last day before before the midterm elections. The
00:00:56The most important midterm, I believe
00:00:59believe in our lifetime. We'll discuss discuss those critical midterm elections
00:01:03elections with our panellists in in studio tonight. Joel Rubin, who
00:01:05who worked in the Obama administration administration as deputy assistant
00:01:08assistant to the Secretary of State,
00:01:10State, and Angie Wong, a Miami Republican Republican Executive Committee woman.
00:01:14woman. Welcome to you both.
00:01:26Hello and welcome to The Context USA. Well, there's only one
00:01:29one show in town here in the US this this week. It's got me and sue me
00:01:32me in the studio together. And our our panel here in real life with
00:01:35with us because just in a few hours, hours, millions of voters will head
00:01:38head to the polls in the 2026 midterm midterm elections. That's right.
00:01:42right. This week, The Context USA USA is at the heart of the story.
00:01:45story. We're going to hear from our our correspondents right across the the country, and we'll analyse it
00:01:49it here on set with our panel of of experts, the policies and politics
00:01:52politics might start here in Washington, Washington, in the Capitol, but their
00:01:55their impacts are felt all the way way out to the furthest corners of
00:01:59of this country. And this election election on Tuesday will help paint paint the picture of how Americans
00:02:03Americans feel about their country country and those who run it. At
00:02:06At stake here, of course, is who who will hold the balance of power
00:02:10power in this building we're looking looking at here on Capitol Hill,
00:02:12Hill, the US Congress, all 435 seats
00:02:15seats in the House of Representatives Representatives are up for grabs,
00:02:19grabs, and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.
00:02:23seats. Democrats look well positioned
00:02:24positioned to retake the House, but
00:02:27but opportunities in the Senate are are grabbing plenty of attention.
00:02:30attention. And plenty of that will will come from who else? This man
00:02:34man President Trump's name is not not on the ballot, but the remaining
00:02:37remaining two years of his presidency presidency could be transformed by
00:02:41by the results of this election. election. Now we're going to be crisscrossing
00:02:44crisscrossing the country this hour hour because our correspondents are
00:02:47are all in position ahead of the the big day tomorrow. But first,
00:02:50first, let's get an initial thought thought from our panellists, Joel
00:02:53Joel Rubin and Angie Wang. We're We're normally chatting down the
00:02:56the line at you, so it's lovely to to have you here in person. Lots Lots to talk about. We've lots of
00:03:00of time. But just a first quick thought thought from both of you. How do
00:03:03do you think your respective parties parties are fixed ahead of tomorrow? tomorrow? Joel the Democrats yeah.
00:03:06yeah. Catrin Nye I think we're poised poised to take the House. I think
00:03:10think there's a quite likely possibility possibility of taking the Senate.
00:03:14Senate. I hedge a little bit because because as a Democrat, we're known
00:03:17known to kind of get over get overhyped
00:03:20overhyped and overinflate our odds. odds. But I feel like the winds are
00:03:23are at our backs right now. We've
00:03:25We've seen even in the last few days,
00:03:28days, a lot of momentum, significant significant turnout in early voting,
00:03:31voting, which does matter. That means means that on election day, when
00:03:34when voters are targeted to get them them out, there are less that need
00:03:37need to be pulled out of their homes homes to go vote, which means we
00:03:40we can have a more efficient operation operation on the ground. And its
00:03:43its turnout that's going to determine determine who wins this election. election. So momentum is in a good
00:03:46good place right now for Democrats. Democrats. Not to suggest you're
00:03:49you're pulling anyone out of their their homes, not. Physically too
00:03:52too much, just knocking on the door.
00:03:54door. Angie, what about the Republicans? Republicans? Yeah, we were feeling feeling really confident about a
00:03:58a week ago and then just having some some phone conversations with leadership.
00:04:01leadership. It looks as though the the House may be lost to Republicans.
00:04:05Republicans. And already President President Trump is already sounding sounding a little defeatist over
00:04:09over the weekend. He's saying he's he's going to be Mister Veto. He's
00:04:11He's reminding everyone that he can can veto anything. He's still president
00:04:15president for the next two years. years. So even if we lose control
00:04:18control of the House, we still might might have the Senate. I think that's
00:04:21that's still in play. One of the the things that I'm looking forward
00:04:24forward to seeing how the independent independent vote has changed. We
00:04:27We were very, very confident in Florida Florida that we were our plus everything
00:04:30everything and almost every single single district. But then you have
00:04:34have this 22 to 24% independent vote vote that could swing it really both
00:04:37both ways. So I think you're going going to see that in multiple states states tomorrow. OK. Great. First
00:04:40First thoughts there, Angie and Joel, Joel, much more to talk about with
00:04:43with both of you. But as we said, said, midterms are often a referendum
00:04:47referendum on the President. And And President Trump has been speaking speaking today. Here's what he's
00:04:51he's been saying in just the last
00:04:52last few moments. And you want to
00:04:56to this was the. The joints that
00:05:01that were here that we took out, out, they were put in there a long
00:05:03long time ago and we took that out
00:05:07out and Obama and Biden put in much
00:05:09much of it. But it was all very defective defective material. And that's one
00:05:13one of the reasons it leaked so badly.
00:05:14badly. So we removed all of this.
00:05:17this. This was put in it was not
00:05:19not very high quality material wouldn't
00:05:22wouldn't last very long. OK, Angie,
00:05:25Angie, I have to ask, is that the the closing message you wanted to to hear from the President? It's
00:05:29It's clear the President does not not want to talk about the midterms. midterms. He wants to talk about
00:05:32about pool construction. I would would not lead with that, especially especially when the whole entire
00:05:36entire world is watching your closing closing message. But he wants to
00:05:39to talk about construction and leaks
00:05:42leaks and the leaks. It's not the the right message. He should really really close with a strong closure,
00:05:46closure, which I've always seen him him do, and maybe he'll do it later
00:05:49later on. But this whole weekend weekend has been a mess. It really
00:05:52really he's kind of in and out of of campaigns, not campaigns, rallies,
00:05:56rallies, not rallies. I think the the President is really preparing preparing for November 4th, what
00:06:00what he's going to be doing the day
00:06:02day after. Joel. Yeah. Look, I mean, mean, when the President does not
00:06:05not want to talk about the election, election, it means he's looking at at his internal polls and realises
00:06:09realises it is a bad election for for him. And quite frankly, the American
00:06:12American people, they don't want want to hear about the President
00:06:15President spending money on reflecting
00:06:17reflecting pools or arches or ballrooms. ballrooms. And that feeds into the
00:06:20the narrative that Democrats have have been constructing this cycle,
00:06:23cycle, which is that there is a sort
00:06:26sort of a corruption and a distraction distraction in the White House, and
00:06:29and they're not focused on the issues issues that matter to the American
00:06:32American people, like affordability, affordability, like health care. care. And those are issues that Democrats
00:06:35Democrats are running on quite strongly. strongly. I do want to add also on
00:06:38on Angie's good point about independence
00:06:40independence in 2020 for Latino voters voters and young voters went towards
00:06:44towards President Trump and they they are flipping in this election.
00:06:48election. That could be very determinative determinative of who wins both chambers. chambers. OK, we're going to talk
00:06:52talk about all of those points because because we've got a correspondents correspondents in position across
00:06:55across the country. We'll be hearing hearing exactly what voters are thinking.
00:06:58thinking. So do stay with us for for that. Around the world and across across the
00:08:01in our bio data. Join me. Paul Carter Carter for tech for Japan. From east
00:08:05east to West on BBC News. Welcome
00:08:13Welcome back to The Context USA now
00:08:15now the cost of living is the key key issue ahead of Tuesday's vote,
00:08:19vote, and it's been impacted by decisions decisions taken far from America's
00:08:22America's shores. Indeed, for voters voters in Ohio and Iowa, the war
00:08:25war in Iran and Donald Trump's tariffs tariffs are hitting close to home
00:08:28home as they are in many other parts parts of the country. Higher fuel
00:08:32fuel bills are squeezing household household budgets. Taxes on imports,
00:08:35imports, push up equipment costs costs for farmers and trade disputes
00:08:39disputes threaten their overseas overseas sales. Let's get a sense
00:08:41sense of how all of this is playing playing out in various different
00:08:44different corners of the US our correspondent correspondent Tom Bateman is in Ohio
00:08:47Ohio for us and our correspondent
00:08:49correspondent Samira Hussain is with
00:08:52with voters in Iowa. All right, let's
00:08:55let's start first in Ohio with Tom
00:08:58Tom Bateman there. Tom, just tell tell us about how the cost of living
00:09:01living question has been playing
00:09:02playing there, where you are. Well,
00:09:06Well, remember, Sumi, that Ohio has
00:09:08has been a Republican dominated state state throughout the entire Trump
00:09:12Trump era. Pretty much. You know,
00:09:15know, the party holds the two US
00:09:17US Senate seats nearly all the seats
00:09:19seats in the House of Representatives Representatives representatives and
00:09:23and the governor's mansion. But what what we're increasingly seeing here,
00:09:26here, if the opinion polls are to to be believed, if the sense of momentum
00:09:29momentum that the Democrats think think they have with them here is
00:09:31is that they think they can break break that monopoly tomorrow and
00:09:35and take a Senate seat and help to
00:09:37to try and flip the House of Representatives
00:09:40Representatives and even the race race for the governor. Now, here
00:09:43here in the city of Columbus, this
00:09:45this is Franklin County. It's a heavily
00:09:48heavily Democratic voting part of of town. We were out for just before
00:09:52before the deadline, actually to to early in-person voting just to
00:09:55to get a sense of how people are
00:09:58are feeling in what has been, say,
00:10:01say, officials, a really big surge
00:10:03surge in early voting. People are
00:10:05are dying. People are starving. They're
00:10:08They're starving. You don't know know whether to buy gas or get a
00:10:12a piece of Bologna, a slice of bread.
00:10:16bread. I've just been waiting maybe maybe like a little over an hour.
00:10:19hour. Why was it important for you you to come and vote today? Change,
00:10:22Change, change. I'm so sick of what's what's going on right now. It's insane.
00:10:26insane. Prices have not gone down.
00:10:27down. Wars have not stopped. They've
00:10:32They've continued and we just have have to. We have to work on taking
00:10:36taking first steps to get back to
00:10:39to what we you know, we just need need to change. This is not the right
00:10:43right direction. Senate seat here here between the incumbent Republican.
00:10:47Republican. Now the race for the the Senate here between the incumbent
00:10:51incumbent Republican Jon Husted and and his Democratic challenger Sherrod
00:10:54Sherrod Brown. That's been a pretty
00:10:57pretty acrimonious race in different different ways. It gives you a sense
00:10:59sense really, of how bitterly fought fought things here are. And I think
00:11:03think one of the reasons why President President Trump has been to Ohio
00:11:06Ohio three times already during this
00:11:08this campaign and also the Vice President President closing the campaign for
00:11:11for the Republicans here with a rally rally in the state just in the last
00:11:14last few hours. And, Tom, just quickly
00:11:16quickly before we let you go, how how much are voters there who you've
00:11:20you've been speaking to linking that that cost of living question to some
00:11:24some of the foreign policy decisions
00:11:25decisions like the war in Iran? Yeah,
00:11:29Yeah, I think it's absolutely fundamental. fundamental. I mean, that first woman woman you heard from there at the
00:11:33the polling place who was talking talking about, you know, having to
00:11:36to choose between buying gas or buying
00:11:39buying bread, said after that that that this was fundamentally about,
00:11:42about, in her view, not sending people people to war because it costs money
00:11:45money to do that. And we've heard heard that repeatedly. Really, I
00:11:48I was just talking to a corn farmer
00:11:52farmer out just outside Columbus Columbus here in rural Ohio, who
00:11:55who said she voted for Donald Trump
00:11:57Trump three times in all three presidential presidential elections that he ran.
00:12:00ran. But she was undecided now how how to vote tomorrow, largely because,
00:12:04because, she says of that soaring soaring cost of diesel, but also
00:12:06also because actually of another another really significant issue
00:12:09issue here that is playing out in in the election, which is data centres.
00:12:13centres. This state has had a huge huge proliferation of them, as you you know, some you've been talking
00:12:17talking to people here as well. That
00:12:19That feels like it's also increasingly increasingly an issue in this midterm
00:12:23midterm election. OK. Tom will of of course be following all your reporting
00:12:27reporting through polling day itself. itself. Tom Bateman there in Ohio.
00:12:29Ohio. Well, let's get on our campaign
00:12:31campaign bus and head from Ohio over
00:12:33over to Iowa and we can speak to
00:12:36to our correspondent there. Samira Samira Hussain Samara, this issue
00:12:39issue of cost of living, the working working poor as they're known people
00:12:42people who have jobs but are still still struggling to put food on their
00:12:46their tables, petrol in their cars. cars. Are you seeing that play out
00:12:48out in Iowa as well? I mean, the
00:12:52the cost of living is certainly a
00:12:55a massive issue for voters here in
00:12:57in this state. And specifically I'm
00:12:59I'm in Dubuque, Iowa at a food pantry. pantry. And of course, people here
00:13:03here have been discussing the cost cost of living and just how much
00:13:07much more expensive groceries are. are. You know, the director of the
00:13:10the food pantry here talked about
00:13:13about how she has seen an increase
00:13:16increase of 20% in the last year year of people coming here. And for
00:13:19for many of them, it is in fact first
00:13:22first time clients, you know, being
00:13:24being forced here because they can't
00:13:26can't make ends meet. And especially
00:13:29especially for seniors where they're they're on fixed incomes, any kind
00:13:32kind of increase to the price of of gasoline, to the price of energy
00:13:36energy bills, to the price of food
00:13:38food has a real huge impact on those those that are living on a fixed
00:13:42fixed income. And smear. Those impacts
00:13:46impacts are magnified as well. When When you look at the farming community
00:13:49community in Iowa, in other states states nearby like Kansas and so
00:13:52so on, farmers facing all of the the challenges you've described,
00:13:55described, plus extra issues around around the markets they can sell
00:13:58sell into farm machinery, diesel.
00:14:03diesel. It's a huge issue. You know,
00:14:05know, you might see the cost of living
00:14:08living here in a very immediate kind
00:14:10kind of way. And for farmers it is
00:14:13is an on a much larger scale. So
00:14:15So I was actually at a farm just just outside of Dubuque, about half
00:14:19half an hour away from here. And And I was speaking with two farmers
00:14:22farmers and they both grow some corn
00:14:24corn and soybean, but their big money-maker
00:14:27money-maker is really cattle. And And one farmer was talking about
00:14:30about President Trump's decision
00:14:32decision to allow imports of beef
00:14:34beef from Argentina. And just how how much of an impact that had on
00:14:38on his bottom line that has him quite
00:14:41quite angry. And he's certainly looking
00:14:43looking to see some kind of change change in government. We happen to
00:14:46to be on the farm of his cousin,
00:14:49cousin, who also raises cattle, and
00:14:51and he says that, look, I have always always been a conservative. That
00:14:55That is, you know, the way that I
00:14:57I have voted. But he really was not
00:15:00not happy with the tone of this election.
00:15:02election. And for him, the big issue
00:15:05issue was the size of America's national national debt. And he lamented the
00:15:09the fact that no one on the campaign campaign trail, be it Republican
00:15:13Republican or Democrat, are talking talking about just how much debt
00:15:16debt the United States is carrying. carrying. Remember, that's a sensitive
00:15:19sensitive issue for farmers. For For farmers, they need to balance
00:15:22balance their books all the time.
00:15:24time. And so the idea that their
00:15:27their country is carrying on with with this enormous amount of debt
00:15:30debt has them very concerned. OK.
00:15:33OK. Thank you very much. That's Samira Samira Hussain in Iowa. Earlier we
00:15:37we heard from Tom in Ohio. We'll We'll hear from more of our correspondents correspondents a little bit later
00:15:41later in the programme. Let's bring bring our panel back in then. Angie
00:15:43Angie and Joel. Angie, I'll start start with you. What Katrina and
00:15:47and I have also seen on the road road is voters connecting the tariff
00:15:51tariff of President Trump and also also the war in Iran to some of those
00:15:54those higher costs that our correspondents correspondents are reporting on.
00:15:57on. How have you seen Republicans Republicans trying to take on the
00:16:00the messaging around this ahead of of these midterms? I think when we we do the autopsy for the midterm
00:16:04midterm elections, we're going to to see that the Trump administration
00:16:07administration has done a terrible terrible job at actually telling
00:16:10telling us what's going on with Iran. Iran. We've got no objectives. We
00:16:13We don't have an end game. It's just just all Americans see are just higher
00:16:17higher gas prices everywhere. So So I think if it was communicated
00:16:21communicated better, people, Americans Americans would take that on. If If they understood that there was
00:16:24was an end game in three, 4 or 5
00:16:275 months' time. You know, right now
00:16:28now they're being asked to take on on an economic hardship with no end
00:16:32end date. And I think we're going going to see a referendum on that
00:16:35that tomorrow. But hasn't President President Trump told Americans from from the outset and most recently
00:16:39recently in the last few weeks that, that, you know, there are higher
00:16:42higher fuel prices? You know, he he said famously, I don't care about
00:16:46about the midterms. I care about about making sure that Iran doesn't
00:16:48doesn't have a nuclear weapon. So So he's kind of linked those himself.
00:16:52himself. And there are some Americans Americans who can take that on, right.
00:16:56right. For a couple of cents more more in the gas pump and some that that can't. I think the ones that
00:17:00that can't are really voting and and really showing how they're going
00:17:02going to be voting in this election. election. You know, right now the
00:17:06the hardship if it was short-term, short-term, we would certainly take take it on in trade for national
00:17:10national security. But we just don't don't know when this ends. Joel,
00:17:13Joel, I want to put that to you. you. Do Democrats actually have an
00:17:16an answer to any of these issues? issues? We have heard the very clear
00:17:19clear message President Trump has has made the cost of your life higher.
00:17:22higher. But Democrats certainly will will have to if they win control control of the House and perhaps
00:17:26perhaps the Senate have some sort sort of agenda to deliver to those
00:17:30those voters. Democrats will have
00:17:32have an agenda, but ultimately it's it's still going to be the President's
00:17:36President's call. So I think what what Democrats are arguing here is
00:17:38is that first and foremost, do not not trust the policies that he's
00:17:41he's enacting, be it on tariffs,
00:17:43tariffs, be it on the war with Iran.
00:17:45Iran. Those are increasing your prices prices at the pump diesel fertiliser.
00:17:49fertiliser. And by the way, we should should mention that the people who
00:17:52who are getting hurt hardest in the the heartland are his voters. And
00:17:56And these are now many districts districts where Democrats could pick
00:17:59pick up red Senate seats that Donald Donald Trump won just two years ago.
00:18:03ago. So I think Democrats are going going to make the argument. Maybe Maybe they'll put bills forward about
00:18:07about ending the war in Iran, about about cutting prices, ending tariffs.
00:18:10tariffs. It's still going to be Donald Donald Trump's decision on whether
00:18:13whether or not to follow that. But But there will be a counter and a
00:18:17a contrast made. I've been in Kansas,
00:18:19Kansas, spoken to some of these farmers farmers who are Republicans who are
00:18:22are solid Donald Trump voters, and and maybe they're toying with not
00:18:26not voting for him this time around, around, Joe, but can Democrats hang
00:18:28hang on to them beyond this kind
00:18:31kind of reaction to what you're talking talking about? Angie, of the pain
00:18:35pain at the prices. I mean, this this is the always the push and pull
00:18:38pull within the Democratic the Democratic Democratic Party and democracy in
00:18:41in general, which is to be a majority. majority. One has to get to the moderate
00:18:45moderate voters. And so now they're they're going to be moderate voters voters in the party. We have already
00:18:49already seen we've seen this for
00:18:51for the last year very rise of a
00:18:53a very strong far left in blue districts. districts. So there's going to be
00:18:56be a major competition on Capitol Capitol Hill about the direction
00:18:59direction of the party, the policies policies we're going to pursue. So
00:19:01So it's an open question about holding holding on to those voters, because because you're going to see a lot
00:19:05lot of battles internally. What lessons lessons do you think Angie can be
00:19:09be learned from Republicans from from this election? Because we've
00:19:11we've already seen some Republican Republican candidates, let's say,
00:19:14say, distance themselves a bit from from President Trump and their messaging messaging saying, I think the Iran
00:19:18Iran war should end today or tomorrow. tomorrow. I think that we should
00:19:21should look at these tariffs against against Canada, for example. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're going to have
00:19:25have to do a lot of soul searching searching the day after. And I think
00:19:29think that President Trump understands understands that he's even come out
00:19:31out on AP to say he's done a terrible
00:19:34terrible job messaging on the economy. economy. He's talked about stock
00:19:38stock prices and how great the stock stock market is doing. That's not
00:19:40not going to help a 23-year-old voter
00:19:42voter or someone who has a farm because because they just care that their
00:19:45their credit cards are maxed out out and that they don't have, you
00:19:48you know, a huge debt. And how are are they going to pay their mortgages mortgages and how are they going
00:19:52going to pay just general basic costs costs of living? President Trump
00:19:56Trump and and some Republicans have have not really addressed those issues
00:19:59issues to the point where they really really feel authentic. I think that,
00:20:02that, you know, we're going to have have to really kind of go back to
00:20:05to the whiteboard and see how we're we're going to address that for
00:20:092018. And if I can give you an immediate immediate example, it's going to to happen, is that we're going to
00:20:11to see a spike in health care premiums premiums by 13% under the Affordable
00:20:15Affordable Care Act early next year. year. So Democrats are certainly certainly going to put bills for
00:20:19for it to end that spike and to try try to subsidise, again, Americans
00:20:22Americans health care. And if they they get that through the Congress Congress and they put it on the President's
00:20:26President's desk, he's going to have have to decide is he going to veto veto that and risk the ire of the
00:20:30the voter, or is he going to follow follow the Democrats lead where they they get a political win? But the
00:20:33the American people ultimately get get a win at the pocketbook? What
00:20:36What do you see happening in that that scenario, Angie? I know President President Trump has been speaking
00:20:39speaking about I'll be the veto, veto, veto, veto president, but will
00:20:43will he have an eye on what happens happens to the party in 28 when he's
00:20:46he's not there? Oh he must. I mean, mean, we're looking at Ohio right
00:20:48right now. We have to win Ohio. Otherwise Otherwise JD Vance may not have a
00:20:51a clean pathway to winning in 28.
00:20:5428. So I think that is the President President going to compromise on
00:20:57on things. I think his team has to to go back and really look, if the
00:21:00the health care plan makes sense sense for all Americans, sure. But
00:21:03But he's already doing his Trump Trump RX and he's doing all other
00:21:06other things to bring down the cost cost of living. You know, people
00:21:08people don't see the long-term mechanisms mechanisms of what the Trump administration
00:21:12administration has done. They want want quick fixes. And maybe that
00:21:15that could be something that he might might have to give in to. That's That's really interesting point you
00:21:18you make there about JD Vance because because of course, the seat that's
00:21:21that's up in Ohio is a special election election for his seat. If that's
00:21:25that's lost, does that put his possible
00:21:27possible candidacy under threat then? I certainly think so. If he he can't win in his own home state,
00:21:31state, that's going to be a really, really, really big mess. And we you
00:21:35you know, the Republicans may have have to kind of rethink what who's
00:21:38who's going to be on that ticket? ticket? Wow. Fascinating. Well great great thoughts. We're going to come
00:21:41come back to both of you in just just a moment. Now, we touched on
00:21:45on early voting at the top of the the show. And indeed, Angie and Joel
00:21:48Joel have both mentioned it. So let's let's have a quick look at some of
00:21:51of the numbers. Already 57 million
00:21:55million Americans have cast their their ballots. That's according to
00:21:58to the University of Florida's election election lab. They keep track of
00:22:01of all the data. That is more than
00:22:05than 45.9 million of the early votes
00:22:08votes in the 2022 midterms. And of of those who have cast their votes
00:22:11votes early this year, 43% are registered
00:22:15registered Democrats and just under under 32% are Republicans. Now that's that's how they're registered. We
00:22:19We don't know if that's how they they actually cast their votes. We
00:22:22We don't have access to that kind kind of data until the votes are
00:22:25are counted. But in several key states, states, the share of registered Democrats
00:22:29Democrats has increased in the early early vote in comparison to previous
00:22:32previous elections. Now in Kansas,
00:22:34Kansas, for instance, 41% of early early voters are registered with
00:22:38with the Democratic Party. That's
00:22:41That's compared to 32% in the 2024 2024 general election. In Texas,
00:22:45Texas, we've seen a record 7.7 million
00:22:48million people voting early in 2022.
00:22:502022. For comparison, that number
00:22:52number was just under 5.5 million. million. So let's come back to the
00:22:56the panel because we were just talking talking about, let's say, voter enthusiasm
00:23:00enthusiasm and these record numbers numbers for early voting. And I want want to start with you because Florida,
00:23:04Florida, where you are based, has has also seen some really interesting interesting early voting numbers.
00:23:07numbers. What are those numbers telling telling you? Historic numbers. People
00:23:10People are voting like it's a presidential presidential election. We're seeing
00:23:13seeing both sides really drum out out the votes, and I'm happy to see
00:23:16see it. We're usually Democrats like
00:23:19like to front load and we see a lot lot of mail in ballots and early
00:23:21early voting. Republicans have kind kind of taken over that as well that
00:23:25that whole game. Will we still have have enough Republicans on election election day? We'll see. But what
00:23:29what I'm really, really worried about
00:23:31about is the unaffiliated, the independent
00:23:34independent votes because we're talking talking 22 to 24% who are registered
00:23:38registered independents now and who
00:23:40who are they? A lot of Jewish voters
00:23:42voters that were once Democrats moved moved into the independent column,
00:23:46column, a lot of Hispanics that were
00:23:47were once Republicans moved into into the independents. And that's
00:23:51that's I'm talking mainly for Florida. Florida. We don't know how they're
00:23:54they're going to vote. It could be
00:23:55be a split ticket. I'm hearing from
00:23:58from various state committee people people that it is a split ticket.
00:24:02ticket. So Florida, I thought it it was a red wall. We might have
00:24:05have some surprises tomorrow. Wow. Wow. Watch it here. First. The days
00:24:08days of when it was a swing state, state, which wasn't that long ago.
00:24:11ago. But even in Texas, the early early vote that's been cast there,
00:24:14there, Joel, is 90% of the total total turnout in the last set of
00:24:18of midterm elections. Are you reading reading that as a good day for Democrats?
00:24:21Democrats? Well, Texas is the white white whale for the Democratic Party.
00:24:25Party. We really, really believe believe we can get it this time.
00:24:27time. This time, this time this might might be the time Talarico has been
00:24:30been ahead. The whole the whole season. season. And even Beto O'Rourke about
00:24:34about I guess eight years ago when
00:24:36when he ran, he came close a few few points behind, but he was never
00:24:40never ahead in the polls, Talarico Talarico said. In the polls, tremendous
00:24:43tremendous fundraising. Paxton is is not popular in the Republican
00:24:46Republican Party. We've seen a lot lot of splits there. Karl Rove, George
00:24:49George W Bush's top adviser, is voting
00:24:51voting for Talarico. So that could could be a win. And again, what I
00:24:55I said earlier, the Latino vote, vote, especially in South Texas,
00:24:58Texas, I mean, that is going Democratic Democratic now in a way that it did
00:25:02did not two years ago. Well, just just quickly on that, we just have
00:25:04have about a minute left. If you
00:25:08you look at that enthusiasm, Democrats Democrats do tend to turn out for
00:25:11for early voting. So are you convinced convinced that that early voting
00:25:14voting advantage, perhaps an advantage advantage against we don't know how how people cast their ballots, will
00:25:17will stand up on election day. This
00:25:21This is the hedge that I have, but but also the opportunity, which is
00:25:24is if we can get enough early votes votes in. That means that when you
00:25:28you look at who are the less frequent frequent voters on election day,
00:25:31day, then the Democratic turnout turnout machine can go to them and and not have to worry about those
00:25:35those who are higher propensity voters voters and try to get them out to
00:25:38to the polls rather than seeing us us cannibalising our vote for the
00:25:41the early vote. I think this is the the year where the enthusiasm opportunity
00:25:45opportunity is real, and that means means that tomorrow people are going
00:25:48going to have to get out to the polls polls and there's going to be a lot
00:25:51lot of mobilisation on the ground. And Andy, just very briefly, briefly, are you worried about Republicans
00:25:54Republicans staying home entirely? entirely? No, no. I think Republicans Republicans are coming out. I think
00:25:58think we keep Texas. I'm going to to go against Joel on this one. We'll
00:26:01We'll battle it out. It's a dollar dollar on us. Alamo there. Yeah,
00:26:05Yeah, well we'll talk about lots
00:26:06lots of other parts of the US in
00:26:09in just a moment. So do stay with with us. And Joy Yang and Joel Rubin
00:26:13Rubin and you at home do stay with
00:26:15with us here on The Context USA on on BBC News. We'll be hearing from
00:26:18from many other parts of the country, country, including Michigan, where
00:26:22where there is a very, very hot Senate Senate race playing out there between
00:26:25between the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed
00:26:28El-Sayed and the Republican challenger, challenger, Congressman Mike Rogers,
00:26:32Rogers, and the cat that was said said amongst the pigeons yesterday yesterday as well. That's right.
00:26:35right. Real controversy on the Democrat Democrat side of the aisle, which
00:26:38which we're going to be talking about about here, of course, with Joel
00:26:41Joel and with Angie, with Congresswoman Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsing
00:26:45endorsing the Republican Mike Rogers Rogers instead of her fellow Democrat.
00:26:48Democrat. There's a lot to unpack unpack there, but certainly Michigan Michigan is going to be one of those
00:26:52those states to watch in the Senate. Senate. As we look at Congress there,
00:26:56there, it's all about who will control
00:26:58control that building there in Congress Congress after the election. So we'll
00:27:01we'll be right back in just a few few moments. Stay with us here on on The Context
00:30:39gains. Follow our coverage right
00:30:41right here on BBC News. MUSIC
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