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00:00:04And now on BBC Persian TV, BBC
00:00:07issues
00:00:11of the day. Welcome to the special live interview exclusively on the US midterm elections.
00:00:15Simultaneously with these elections,
00:00:18an important question is what decision Donald Trump will make
00:00:22after the elections. Negotiation or
00:00:25military attack? Mohsen Milani, Professor of Political Science
00:00:29at the University of Southern California, Director
00:00:32of the Center for Strategic Research at this university, has spent years researching
00:00:36the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic and the competition between Iran and the US in the
00:00:39Middle East, and is one of the prominent experts in this field.
00:00:43He wrote the book "The Rise of Iran and its Competition with the US in the
00:00:47Middle East" last year, in which he argued that these policies
00:00:50have transformed Iran into a regional power and that Tehran's Achilles' heel
00:00:54lies within the country itself in its dealings with the Iranian people.
00:00:58He also wrote an article before the 12-day war
00:01:00in which he argued that Iran, due to its geographical
00:01:03position, would have the upper hand in any war. Mr.
00:01:07Milani now believes that this war might change the balance of power
00:01:10in the Persian Gulf. He also mentioned this in his latest article. I am
00:01:14Farnaz Ghazizadeh, and this is a special live
00:01:18interview with Mohsen
00:01:21Milani.
00:01:43Dr. Mohsen Milani, welcome to this
00:01:47special program. Can this election
00:01:50really change Donald Trump's decision about
00:01:54war, or has it only postponed his
00:01:57decisions?
00:02:01With greetings to you and the respected listeners and
00:02:05viewers of the BBC, in
00:02:08the American political system,
00:02:12regarding foreign policy, the president
00:02:14has the final say, and even
00:02:17if the US Congress is in the hands of the opposition,
00:02:21the president can pursue
00:02:25the policy he wants. The same can be said
00:02:28about the Iran issue. However, the problem that
00:02:32Mr. Trump will face is that today,
00:02:35at least according to the latest statistics I've
00:02:39seen, the polls I've seen show that at least
00:02:4270 percent of Americans believe that this war
00:02:46was a mistake, and the US should not have
00:02:50entered this war. Many Americans are also
00:02:54concerned about this war due to
00:02:57economic issues, which go back to
00:03:00the control of Iran in
00:03:03Hormuz and other issues related to
00:03:06the expenses the US has incurred.
00:03:10Usually, in America, when a war
00:03:14starts, Americans initially support
00:03:17it, but then they gradually
00:03:21become opposed to it. Regarding
00:03:25the war with Iran, regarding the war between Israel and the US against
00:03:28Iran, from the very beginning of this
00:03:32war, most Americans were against it. And more
00:03:36importantly, unlike the wars the US waged in Afghanistan
00:03:40and Iraq, which cost much more than
00:03:43the expenses the US incurred regarding Iran, there
00:03:47is a fundamental difference between these
00:03:51that answers your question.
00:03:54And this fundamental difference is that the expenses
00:03:57the US is incurring are...
00:04:00American voters feel it every day they go to fill
00:04:04up their gas. The two
00:04:07trillion dollars the US spent on Afghanistan and Iraq
00:04:10is much more than what the US spent on Iran. But this
00:04:14was over a long period, and Americans didn't
00:04:18feel it. But now, because of
00:04:21the high prices, they do feel it. The poll you
00:04:25mentioned, the latest figures I have are from the Reuters poll, which was conducted
00:04:28in mid-October a few days ago, stating that
00:04:3154% of respondents believed that the war with Iran
00:04:35was not worth its costs, and only 34%
00:04:39agreed with this attack. As you said, most Americans
00:04:42oppose this war, but what meaningful
00:04:46effect can this have on Mr. Trump's decisions?
00:04:49If the Democrats win the Congress,
00:04:52what tools do they have to change
00:04:55his decisions? Important.
00:04:59مهم.
00:05:13This will not happen on day one. It will
00:05:16take some time, but the party that controls
00:05:19the parliament will also control the committee that
00:05:23determines the US government's budget. Therefore,
00:05:27they can exert a lot of financial pressure on Mr. Trump.
00:05:31Second, many of these committees can start
00:05:34investigating the war, investigating the damage
00:05:38this war has inflicted on the US.
00:05:41On American bases, they can start
00:05:45investigating the expenses
00:05:48that the US government has incurred in the entire Middle East,
00:05:52and most importantly, they can start investigating
00:05:55the economic issues related to
00:05:59Mr. Trump's family. Therefore, they can have
00:06:02a significant impact, but the main
00:06:05point is that they cannot seriously change US policy
00:06:09towards Iran. Exactly.
00:06:12The main issue is what you just pointed out, and
00:06:16it's about timing. You said that the Democrats can do these things,
00:06:20but for the next 60 days, when the Congress is still the previous Congress,
00:06:24even ignoring that, the issue
00:06:27is immediate. Regarding the war with Iran, the threats
00:06:30we hear these days, there is even talk about
00:06:33the possibility of using nuclear bombs, which has greatly worried
00:06:37many. This is about
00:06:41these events possibly happening immediately. How much do you think
00:06:44Mr. Trump will immediately decide on a widespread
00:06:47military operation at the levels that are being discussed?
00:06:50Ms. Gadi, unfortunately,
00:06:54I cannot answer your question precisely because
00:06:57we are dealing with a person who wants to create problems
00:07:01for others to wonder what he will do.
00:07:05Personally, I think that
00:07:08the first war that the US started with Iran was based on a series of
00:07:12wrong calculations, and that's why most Americans are against
00:07:16this war. They also made a series of serious mistakes in the second war
00:07:20they started. For example, they thought that
00:07:23in the system of the Islamic Republic, individuals are much more important than institutions.
00:07:27They thought that if they cut off the head
00:07:31of the snake, the snake would be gone, whereas we saw that this did not
00:07:34happen. The main question for me is what
00:07:38the US wants to achieve in the third war
00:07:42that it did not achieve in the first and second wars. Therefore,
00:07:45it's very difficult, but I can tell you with
00:07:49certainty that this "neither peace nor
00:07:53war" situation cannot be sustainable because
00:07:56it is costly for the US, and it is costly for the Islamic
00:08:00Republic, and it is costly for Iran as a
00:08:04country. Therefore, we can
00:08:07see that some important changes are happening in the region,
00:08:10some changes
00:08:12in Iran's defensive doctrine are happening,
00:08:16and most importantly, some events are happening regarding
00:08:19US allies in the Persian Gulf and
00:08:23in the Middle East, regarding how much they can
00:08:26trust the US. We will definitely talk about them,
00:08:29but this issue, in fact, you have largely explained
00:08:33the situation of the US to us, which is very important considering
00:08:37today's conditions and the US elections. But the other side of the
00:08:40coin, in your opinion,
00:08:42you argued in multiple articles that Iran's geographical position,
00:08:46due to the situation, due to the Strait of Hormuz, has given it the upper hand,
00:08:50and it has been able to change the balance. But if
00:08:53a country has to use these levers to exercise its power, the levers that
00:08:57Iran has used during this period, has it really gained
00:09:00more power or has it only been able to divide the cost
00:09:04of defeat between itself
00:09:06and others?
00:09:10Certainly, the situation in Iran today
00:09:13is not as good as before October
00:09:167, when Hamas attacked Israel, because
00:09:20Hezbollah does not have its previous power. This is clear
00:09:23to everyone. More importantly,
00:09:26Iran's most important Arab ally, Bashar al-Assad,
00:09:30was overthrown from power. Even
00:09:33Iraqi Shiite groups do not have the power they
00:09:37had before, and the Prime Minister who rules
00:09:41in Iraq today does not have a good
00:09:44relationship with Iran. However, there are two important
00:09:47points to mention here. First of all,
00:09:51Ms. Ghazizadeh, what happened in Iran in the past
00:09:54year is perhaps unprecedented in Iran's contemporary history,
00:09:58and even in the history of the Middle East. Look, two nuclear
00:10:01countries. One of them spends
00:10:04one
00:10:06trillion dollars on military
00:10:10expenses annually. Israel also spends somewhere
00:10:14between 40 and 50 billion dollars.
00:10:17The Islamic Republic's maximum military expenditure
00:10:21is between 10 and 20 million dollars.
00:10:25What happened that the Islamic Republic, after
00:10:27at least 50 of its most important leaders were killed,
00:10:31destroyed almost all, no, many of
00:10:35Iran's military infrastructure, this system has not
00:10:38yet been destroyed. Tell us what happened in your opinion.
00:10:42What happened? In my opinion, what happened
00:10:45was, first, that the US relied too much on
00:10:49individuals, and this goes back to the Pahlavi
00:10:53era. You see, during the Pahlavi
00:10:57era, when Mohammad Reza Shah left Iran,
00:11:00after a while, the entire system he had
00:11:04built, the fifth largest military
00:11:07power in the world, Mohammad Reza Shah had created
00:11:11in Iran. This was destroyed in less than two
00:11:15months because in that system, individuals were much more important than
00:11:18institutions. This is not true for the Islamic Republic.
00:11:22This is true for most revolutions as well.
00:11:26Revolutions usually create institutions. When you create
00:11:29an institution, even if you kill the individual, the system
00:11:33does not collapse. This is one. Second, Americans were suspicious
00:11:37because many of our people
00:11:40are dissatisfied with the government of the Islamic Republic, and
00:11:43they have the right to be dissatisfied. The figures I saw
00:11:47indicate that about 80 to 85 percent of the people are dissatisfied.
00:11:50But the mistake Americans made was to think that this
00:11:53dissatisfaction meant that the people would remain silent
00:11:57or even support it when their country
00:12:00was attacked. This did not happen either.
00:12:03Third, and most importantly,
00:12:07the Islamic Republic showed that it has
00:12:10the power and is willing to use what it
00:12:14has to close the Strait of Hormuz. Americans thought
00:12:18Iran was bluffing because they thought if
00:12:21it closed the Strait of Hormuz,
00:12:25its own economic situation would be destroyed.
00:12:29And finally, the last issue that Americans, in
00:12:32my opinion, and Israelis did not pay serious
00:12:35attention to is that it is true that Iran's defensive system was very
00:12:39weak, but Iran's offensive system was not as
00:12:43weak as Americans thought. In the same article you
00:12:47are referring to, this is the point I made two weeks before the first
00:12:51war started. I said that if Iran is attacked,
00:12:55you will face a new
00:12:58system that is willing to do anything to
00:13:02gain power. Therefore, when you put
00:13:06all these together, it means that Americans did not
00:13:09think that Iran would attack Arab countries,
00:13:12target the infrastructure of Arab countries, and
00:13:16do it with such precision. Approximately 12
00:13:19of US military bases in the Persian
00:13:23Gulf or almost
00:13:35it shows how these bases have been weakened. Therefore,
00:13:38when you put all these together,
00:13:41I understand your points, but just recently, Mr.
00:13:44Araghchi said in a TV interview that during this time, he went to
00:13:48many countries in the region and, according to him,
00:13:51spoke to them in a way that scared and threatened them.
00:13:55The important issue is that Iran has clearly had power in that
00:13:59region, and it is clear that with the operations
00:14:03it has carried out in the past few months, it has scared the countries in the region.
00:14:06But in the long run, can Iran sustain this in a region
00:14:10where it has an enemy like Israel above it, the US above it, and
00:14:14the regional countries only deal with it out of fear, not
00:14:18because they really want to cooperate with it?
00:14:21The answer is certainly no. You are absolutely
00:14:25right. And in the same book that, if you remember, we talked
00:14:29about it in London a little over a year ago,
00:14:32you had a program, and in that book, before
00:14:36this war started, my main conclusion was that
00:14:40Iran cannot sustain the power it has gained.
00:14:43It must make fundamental changes
00:14:47in its foreign policy, and the important point I made
00:14:51then, I repeat today, is that we have
00:14:55historically exaggerated Iran's power
00:14:58and underestimated the power of others.
00:15:02The Islamic Republic of Iran,
00:15:05whatever government comes after this,
00:15:08cannot fight with Israel,
00:15:11with America, and with Saudi Arabia
00:15:14simultaneously. It cannot.
00:15:18That is, even if it lasts for a while,
00:15:21it is not sustainable in the long run. And most importantly,
00:15:25our country's economic situation is getting worse every
00:15:28day. That's why I've been making this point for 30
00:15:32years, that until Iran's relationship with the US
00:15:35becomes normal, the relationship
00:15:44between Iran and the US will not lead to a real
00:15:48agreement. In 2015,
00:15:50you were very happy with the previous agreement and said it could be
00:15:54the main and initial step. We saw where it led.
00:15:58The next issue is that in the last year or two, every
00:16:01time Iran has gone to the negotiating table, that negotiating
00:16:05table has been blown up by the US. The negotiations have essentially
00:16:09led to war, even. How can
00:16:12one essentially trust negotiations in these
00:16:15circumstances? How can the Islamic Republic trust negotiations and go to the negotiating
00:16:19table? You see,
00:16:22the main problem with the JCPOA, the problem
00:16:25that many of us who supported it did not
00:16:29notice carefully, was that the Americans
00:16:32took cash and gave credit. This time,
00:16:36the Islamic Republic is not going to make this mistake.
00:16:40That is, in my opinion, the sequencing issue,
00:16:43that is, who should take the first step,
00:16:47will be very important. In any case, what you are saying
00:16:50is completely true. It was the US that withdrew from the JCPOA, and
00:16:54twice the US attacked precisely at the time it was negotiating
00:16:58with Iran. But the Americans themselves are slowly coming to the conclusion
00:17:02that Iran's nuclear issue, which is an important
00:17:05issue, is not the only important issue. Iran's nuclear
00:17:09issue and the future of Hormuz
00:17:13do not have a political solution. They do not
00:17:15have a military solution. They have a political solution, and as long
00:17:19as the US tries to come
00:17:22and turn negotiations into
00:17:25"you must do it,
00:17:28and then I will decide what to do," well, this
00:17:32will not lead anywhere. This war will continue
00:17:35and will be to the detriment
00:18:11Look at the Mecca agreement, look at the reason. It's because Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that the US cannot
00:18:15unilaterally protect Saudi
00:18:18Arabia's interests. They saw that regarding the attack
00:18:22on Saudi Arabia, they can, because now
00:18:25in any case, Saudi Arabia has been attacked repeatedly in the past few
00:18:29weeks by the Houthis, who are considered Iran's partners in a way
00:18:33and have a very close relationship with Iran.
00:18:37From...
00:18:53Changing foreign policy on political issues is like changing the direction of a very large ship, which you
00:18:57see this change of direction
00:19:00in one or two days, it takes time. You see, the fact that Saudi
00:19:03Arabia has requested from Turkey and requested
00:19:07from Pakistan
00:19:10to enter the Persian Gulf is very important. In addition,
00:19:13you see that every day
00:19:15the economic and political power
00:19:19of China is increasing in the Persian Gulf.
00:19:23It is taking America's place. Mr. Milani,
00:19:26China cannot take America's place, but China can
00:19:30take some of America's power, which until the war
00:19:34between Iran and the US, in my article for Chatham House,
00:19:37my whole argument was that until the Iran-US war,
00:19:41America's power
00:19:45was not challenged in the
00:19:48Persian Gulf, meaning it was Pax Americana. But after
00:19:52this, that power is slowly being challenged.
00:19:55It cannot change America. America's importance
00:19:59will remain in its place, but
00:20:02other countries such as China or even
00:20:05the Islamic Republic itself can play a greater role
00:20:09in the Persian Gulf, and
00:20:13therefore, the order in the Middle East
00:20:17will be very different from today. We just had
00:20:21elections for the Israeli Knesset a few
00:20:24days ago, and it was announced that Mr. Netanyahu will remain as
00:20:28caretaker for now. My question is, if he, now he has to face
00:20:32another election with conditions that will become clearer
00:20:36in the coming days and weeks, if someone like Mr. Eizenkot
00:20:39replaces him, will we see a major change? Because we constantly
00:20:43hear that Mr. Netanyahu has dragged Mr. Trump into this
00:20:47war.
00:20:49Yes, I think that if Mr. Netanyahu
00:20:53is not elected, meaning he cannot stay in power,
00:20:56which is possible, Israel's policy
00:20:59regarding Iran will change somewhat.
00:21:03If you look at what Mr. Eizenkot himself
00:21:07has said, he
00:21:10has very clearly stated that
00:21:13he does not pursue a regime change policy,
00:21:17whereas Mr. Netanyahu wants to
00:21:20pursue this policy, not that if
00:21:24Israel pursues this policy, it will succeed, but in
00:21:27any case, when a powerful country announces that it
00:21:31wants to overthrow the regime of another country,
00:21:34this is a very important issue. Therefore, Mr.
00:21:38Eizenkot, despite believing
00:21:40that Iran's nuclear program and Iran's missile
00:21:44program are a very serious threat, agrees
00:21:48with Mr. Netanyahu. But
00:22:04in foreign policy matters, even in democratic
00:22:07countries, they play an important role. Mr. Netanyahu
00:22:10has been in power for years, and he has built a very powerful
00:22:14network of friends and supporters,
00:22:18and he has a kind of personality that can solve many
00:22:22problems. Therefore, if he leaves, it will take
00:22:26a long time for Mr. Eizenkot to
00:22:29make up for the impact that
00:22:33Mr. Netanyahu has had. But unlike
00:22:37what many people think, that there will be no change
00:22:40in Israel's policy, I think
00:22:43that if Eizenkot wins the election,
00:22:46if Eizenkot is asked to
00:22:50form a government and can form a government with Arab
00:22:53groups, in Israel's foreign
00:22:57policy regarding Iran, we will see some good
00:23:01changes. The government of Iran, you yourself mentioned
00:23:05in this interview, is a government that a large segment of the people currently have problems
00:23:08with, are critical of it.
00:23:11They are interested in overthrowing it. You yourself have repeatedly said that you are against revolution
00:23:15and believe that revolution does not yield the desired
00:23:18results. War also, apparently, has not given the results that some
00:23:22of the people, at least, wanted. In your opinion, what can be the solution
00:23:26for the Iranian people now? You are absolutely right. Revolutions,
00:23:30usually, if you look at all these revolutions around the world, from
00:23:33the French Revolution to Russia to China and
00:23:37other revolutions, revolution is for people who think they can
00:23:40achieve very rapid progress, meaning, as they say,
00:23:44they can find a shortcut, and this usually doesn't
00:23:47happen. War is the same. War usually
00:23:50changes the nature of governments. The Iran-Iraq War
00:23:53changed the nature of the Islamic Republic. I think
00:23:57what needs to happen in Iran, I don't know how much
00:24:00will happen, but for
00:24:04me, this is the most fundamental issue that Iran is facing.
00:24:07These policies of the Islamic Republic in the last
00:24:1045 years, 50 years, have not reached where
00:24:14they wanted to. Therefore, there needs to be a kind of review,
00:24:18and this review must have three pillars:
00:24:21First, they must enhance Iran's power
00:24:24and Iran's deterrent power. Second, the issue
00:24:28of development and the economic situation of the people
00:24:31must be the second pillar. And third, democracy.
00:24:34Ms. Ghazizadeh, for 150
00:24:38years, from before the Constitutional
00:24:41Revolution until today, we have talked about
00:24:44modernity, we have talked about development. These
00:24:47three pillars that I mentioned:
00:24:50power, development, and improvement of the people's situation, and
00:24:53democracy, all three must go
00:24:56hand in hand.
00:24:58We have not moved this forward. Two years ago, around these very days, I think,
00:25:02was the first time Mr. Pezeshkian came to New York at that meeting
00:25:05where many prominent Iranian experts were present, and you were
00:25:09also there. You told Mr. Pezeshkian these very things. Did
00:25:13you give him such proposals? What did he say? What do Iranian
00:25:16officials say in response to these words to people like you? Well,
00:25:20this meeting that took place, this meeting was with about
00:25:2412 or 13 Iranian
00:25:27professors, and each of
00:25:30us had no more than 3 or 4 minutes.
00:25:33We said very general things. To be honest,
00:25:37I didn't take notes, but I'm sure if I said
00:25:40anything, it was about normalizing the relationship
00:25:44with the US, because this is my main theme.
00:25:48Because I believe that as long as Iran does not normalize its relationship
00:25:52with the US or does not try to
00:25:55learn how to deal with each other's
00:25:59opposition, their opposition
00:26:52Mohsen Milani, Professor of International Relations. Thank you for
00:26:54joining
00:26:56us.
00:27:02You were with us.
00:27:13An old American politician has a famous quote. He says that all
00:27:17politics is local, meaning before reaching the streets
00:27:21of Washington, those who want to enter Congress must pay attention
00:27:25to the demands of the local people who are going to choose only
00:27:40videos like this are all over social media,
00:27:44easily produced, high volume, and often very
00:27:47weird. AI is making it easier to scam us. It was
00:27:51my voice, it was my phone number. On that day,
00:27:54I hadn't spoken to her. In the
00:27:57age of artificial intelligence, panorama asks, is
00:28:01seeing?
00:28:11a few months ago, meaning the internet was reconnected, but in practice, many VPNs
00:28:15still work with difficulty or are frequently disconnected. Well, the reality is
00:28:18that the internet in Iran has not yet returned to its state before the massacre and war.
00:28:22So, what is its state? Observer groups say that users in Iran still
00:28:26have a fragile and debilitating connection to the internet,
00:28:29but that so-called national internet, or
00:28:33the Iranian government, is encouraging or forcing people to use
00:28:36it. After all these restrictions and increased costs,
00:28:40it still hasn't been able to replace the internet for many people.
00:28:43A poll conducted by ISPA tells us that still
00:28:4671% of users are using foreign social networks.
00:28:50Of course, the dominant pattern is that they usually have an account on at least
00:28:54one of the domestic platforms or domestic messengers, and also use
00:28:57foreign social networks. The reason for their use of these
00:29:01domestic platforms is, I think, clear, because from approximately last winter
00:29:05to this spring, we had no access to international internet for almost half
00:29:08of this period. We faced various types of filtering, restrictions
00:29:12were tightened, and in addition to that, we still cannot call
00:29:16this an optional alley to a domestic platform because many
00:29:19users are still forced to use these domestic platforms or messengers
00:29:23for various administrative, educational, and medical services.
00:29:26There are a few other interesting data that show
00:29:30the actual status of platforms.
00:29:52We should, that these ISPA poll data tells us that
00:29:55internet blackout policies, filtering, and all of these have not yet been able
00:29:59to discourage users or push them
00:30:02towards using domestic
00:30:04platforms.
00:30:11And now on BBC Persian TV, science.