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00:00:31And now, on BBC Persian TV, the issues of
00:00:35the day.
00:00:38Welcome to the live special interview on the US midterm elections.
00:00:42Alongside the holding of these elections, a crucial question is what decision
00:00:46Donald Trump will make after the elections. Negotiation
00:00:50or military attack? Mohsen Milani,
00:00:53professor of political science at the University of South Florida, director of the Center
00:00:56for Strategic Research at this university, has for years researched
00:01:00the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic and the competition between Iran and
00:01:04the US in the Middle East, and is one of the well-known experts
00:01:07in this field. He wrote the book "The Rise of Iran's Power
00:01:11and its Competition with the US in the Middle East" last year,
00:01:14in which he argued that these policies have transformed Iran into a regional power
00:01:17and that Tehran's Achilles' heel lies within the country
00:01:21in its dealings with the Iranian people. He also wrote an article before the 12-day
00:01:25war, in which he argued that Iran, due to its
00:01:28geographical position, would have the upper hand
00:01:31in any war. Mr. Milani now believes
00:01:35that this war may change the power order in the Persian Gulf.
00:01:39He has also mentioned this in his latest article. I am Farnaz Ghazizadeh,
00:01:43and this is an exclusive live special interview with
00:01:46Mohsen Midani.
00:02:10Dr. Mohsen Milani, welcome to this
00:02:14special interview program. Will this election
00:02:17really change Donald Trump's decision
00:02:21about the war, or will it only postpone
00:02:25the implementation of his decisions?
00:02:28With greetings to you, our esteemed listeners and
00:02:32viewers of BBC. In
00:02:35the US political system,
00:02:39regarding foreign policy, the president has the final say,
00:02:41and even
00:02:44if the US Congress is in the hands of his opponents,
00:02:48the president can pursue the policy he wants.
00:02:52The same can be said regarding the issue of Iran.
00:02:55However, the problem that Mr. Trump
00:02:59will face is this: today,
00:03:03at least, according to the latest statistics I've seen,
00:03:06the poll results I've seen, at least 70%
00:03:09of Americans believe that this war was
00:03:12a mistake. The US should
00:03:15not have entered this war, and many
00:03:19Americans are also concerned about this war
00:03:23due to economic issues related to Iran's
00:03:26control of the Red
00:03:30Sea and other issues related to the expense
00:03:33the US has incurred. Usually in the US, when
00:03:37a war starts, at first,
00:03:41Americans support this war, but then
00:03:44gradually, they become opposed to it. Regarding
00:03:48the war with Iran, regarding the war between Israel and the US against
00:03:52Iran, from the very beginning of this war,
00:03:55most Americans were against it.
00:03:59And more importantly, unlike the wars that
00:04:03the US waged in Afghanistan and Iraq, which cost
00:04:07much more than the US has spent in relation to Iran,
00:04:10there is a fundamental difference between these
00:04:14that answers your question. And this fundamental
00:04:18difference is that the cost the US is incurring,
00:04:21the American voter feels it
00:04:24every day when they go to buy gas.
00:04:27They feel that the two trillion dollars the US spent
00:04:30on Afghanistan and Iraq is much more than what the US has spent
00:04:34in relation to Iran, but this
00:04:37was over a long period, and Americans
00:04:41didn't feel it, but now
00:04:45they feel it because of the high
00:04:48cost. This poll that you mentioned,
00:04:52the latest data I have is from a Reuters poll
00:04:55that was conducted in mid-October a few days ago, which says
00:04:5854% of respondents believed that the war with Iran
00:05:02was not worth its costs, and only 34%
00:05:06supported this attack. As you said, most Americans
00:05:09are against this war. But what meaningful effect
00:05:13can this have on Mr. Trump's decisions?
00:05:16If the Democrats win the Congress,
00:05:19what tools do they have to change
00:05:23his decisions?
00:05:26The most important leverage that the Democrats
00:05:30will have is that they can reduce or stop
00:05:34the funding for this war. This
00:05:38will not happen on day one.
00:05:41It will take some time, but
00:05:45the party that controls the House
00:05:48controls the committee that determines the US government's budget.
00:05:52Therefore, they can exert significant financial pressure
00:05:56on Mr. Trump. Second, many of these committees
00:06:00can start investigating the war,
00:06:03investigating the damage that this war has inflicted on the US,
00:06:07on American bases. They can start
00:06:11investigating the expenses that the US
00:06:15government has incurred throughout
00:06:18the Middle East. And then, most importantly, they can start
00:06:21investigating the economic issues
00:06:25related to Mr. Trump's family. Therefore, they can
00:06:28have a significant impact, but
00:06:32the main point is that they cannot fundamentally change
00:06:35US policy regarding Iran. Exactly,
00:06:39the major issue is what you just mentioned. And the timing
00:06:43also matters. You said that the Democrats can do these things,
00:06:46but for the next 60 days, the Congress is still the previous Congress.
00:06:50Even if we pass that, the issue is immediate.
00:06:53Regarding the war with Iran, the threats we hear these days,
00:06:57there is even talk about the possibility
00:07:01of using an atomic bomb, which has caused much concern.
00:07:04This is related to the possibility of these events
00:07:08happening immediately. How much do you think Mr. Trump
00:07:11will immediately decide on a large-scale military operation
00:07:14at the levels that are being discussed?
00:07:17Ms. Qadi, unfortunately,
00:07:21I cannot give you an exact answer,
00:07:24because we are dealing with a person who likes
00:07:28to create problems for others to guess what he will
00:07:32do. I personally think that
00:07:35the first war the US started with Iran was based on a series
00:07:38of wrong calculations, and that's why most Americans
00:07:42are against this war. The second war they started, they made
00:07:46some serious mistakes. For example, they thought
00:07:49that in the system of the Islamic Republic, individuals
00:07:53were much more important than institutions. They thought that if they came
00:07:57and cut off the snake's head, the snake would die,
00:08:00but we saw that this did not happen. The main question for me is
00:08:04what the US wants to achieve in the third war
00:08:08that it did not achieve in the first and second wars. Therefore,
00:08:12it's very difficult, but I can tell you with
00:08:16certainty that this issue of neither peace nor
00:08:19war cannot be sustainable, because
00:08:23it is expensive for the US, and it is expensive for the Islamic
00:08:27Republic, and it is expensive for Iran as a
00:08:31country. Therefore, we can see
00:08:34that some important changes are happening in the region,
00:08:37some important changes are happening in the policies
00:08:41of this defense doctrine, and most importantly,
00:08:44some events are happening regarding the US allies in
00:08:48the Persian Gulf and in the Middle East, regarding
00:08:52how much they can trust the US. We will certainly talk
00:08:55about them, but this issue, in fact, you mostly explained
00:08:59the situation of the US to us, which is very important given
00:09:03today's conditions and the US elections. But the other issue is the opposing
00:09:07side. In your opinion, you argued in multiple
00:09:10articles that Iran's geographical position, due to its situation,
00:09:14due to the Strait of Hormuz, has given it the upper hand and has managed
00:09:18to change the balance. But if a country has to use
00:09:21these levers to exert its power, the levers that Iran has used
00:09:25during this period, has it really gained more power, or has it only
00:09:29managed to distribute the cost of failure
00:09:33between itself and others?
00:09:35Certainly, the situation of Iran in the region
00:09:39today is not as good as before October 7,
00:09:43when Hamas attacked Israel. Because Hezbollah
00:09:46does not have its previous power, this is clear to everyone.
00:09:50More importantly, the most important Arab ally
00:09:53of Iran, Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted from
00:09:57power. Even the Iraqi Shiite groups do not have the power
00:10:00they used to have, and the prime minister
00:10:04who is governing Iraq today does not have a very good
00:10:08relationship with Iran. But there are two important
00:10:11points that I must
00:10:14mention here. First of all, Ms. Ghazizadeh,
00:10:17what happened in Iran in this last year is perhaps unprecedented
00:10:21in the contemporary history of Iran, and even in the history
00:10:25of the Middle East. Look, two nuclear
00:10:28countries, one of them spends
00:10:31one
00:10:33trillion dollars annually
00:10:37on military expenses. Israel also spends
00:10:41something between 40 to 50 billion dollars.
00:10:44The Islamic Republic's maximum military expenditure
00:10:48is between 10 to 20 million dollars.
00:10:52How is it that the Islamic Republic, after at least
00:10:5550 of its most important leaders were killed
00:10:58and all infrastructure,
00:11:02well, not all, but many of Iran's military infrastructure
00:11:05were destroyed, this system is still not destroyed?
00:11:08Tell us what happened, in your opinion. In my opinion, what happened
00:11:12was that, first, the US relied
00:11:15more on individuals than it should have,
00:11:18and this goes back to the Pahlavi era.
00:11:21Look, during the Pahlavi era, when
00:11:24Mohammad Reza Shah left Iran, after
00:11:27a while, the entire system he had built,
00:11:31the fifth largest military power
00:11:34in the world, which Mohammad Reza Shah had created in Iran,
00:11:37was destroyed in less than two months. Because
00:11:40in that system, individuals were much more
00:11:43important than institutions. This is not true for the Islamic
00:11:47Republic. This is true for most revolutions as well, that
00:11:51revolutions usually create institutions. When you create an institution,
00:11:56even if you kill the individual, the system does not die.
00:12:00This is one thing. Second, Americans thought that
00:12:03because many of our people
00:12:07are dissatisfied with the government of the Islamic Republic,
00:12:10and they have the right to be dissatisfied. The figures I saw are around
00:12:1480 to 85% of the people are dissatisfied.
00:12:18But the mistake Americans made was thinking that this
00:12:20dissatisfaction meant that the people would remain silent
00:12:24or even support it when
00:12:27their country is attacked. This also did not happen.
00:12:31Third, and most importantly, the Islamic Republic
00:12:35showed that it has the power
00:12:39and is willing to use what it has,
00:12:42which is to close the Strait of Hormuz. Americans thought Iran was bluffing
00:12:46because they thought that if it closed the Strait of
00:12:50Hormuz, its own economy
00:12:54would collapse. And finally,
00:12:57the last issue that I believe Americans and Israelis did not pay
00:13:01serious attention to is that, while Iran's defensive
00:13:04system was very weak, Iran's offensive
00:13:08system was not as weak as Americans
00:13:11thought. In this very article you referred to,
00:13:15this is the point I made two weeks before the first war
00:13:18started. I said, if Iran is attacked,
00:13:22you will face a new
00:13:25system that is willing to do
00:13:29anything to gain power. Therefore, when we put
00:13:33all these together, it means that
00:13:35Americans did not think that Iran would attack Arab countries,
00:13:39attack the infrastructure of Arab countries, and
00:13:43attack with such precision. Around 12
00:13:46of the US military bases in the Persian
00:13:50Gulf are either almost destroyed or severely
00:13:53damaged. Mr. Murphy, the US Senator,
00:13:56just a week or two ago went to the
00:13:59Middle East and showed how these bases
00:14:03have been weakened. Therefore, when you put all these
00:14:12said in a television interview that he had visited many
00:14:15countries in the region, and, as he put it,
00:14:18he spoke to them in a way that he scared them,
00:14:21he threatened them. The important issue is that Iran
00:14:25has clearly had power in that region, and it is clear that with
00:14:29these operations that it has carried out in the past few months,
00:14:32it has scared the countries of the region. But in the long run, is this sustainable
00:14:36for Iran in a region where an enemy like Israel
00:14:40is above it, the US is above it, and the countries of the region only deal
00:14:43with it out of fear, and not because they really
00:14:46want to cooperate with it? Certainly,
00:14:50the answer is no. You are absolutely right, and in that book
00:14:53that, if you remember, we talked about a little over a year ago
00:14:57in London, on your program, the main conclusion I drew
00:15:01in that book before this war started was
00:15:04that Iran cannot maintain this power it has gained.
00:15:08It must make fundamental changes
00:15:11in its foreign policy.
00:15:15And the important point I made then, I repeat
00:15:18today, is that in our contemporary
00:15:22history, we have usually overestimated Iran's power
00:15:25and underestimated the power of others.
00:15:28The Islamic Republic of Iran, or any government that comes after it,
00:15:32cannot fight both Israel
00:15:36and the US
00:15:39and Saudi Arabia. It cannot. Even if it remains
00:15:42stable for a while, it is not sustainable
00:15:46in the long run. And most importantly,
00:15:49our country's economic situation is getting worse
00:15:53every day. That's why for 30 years, I've been pointing
00:15:56out that until Iran's relationship with
00:16:00the US normalizes, the Islamic Republic, economically
00:16:04and politically, etc.,
00:16:37how can we trust negotiations in such
00:16:41circumstances? How can the Islamic Republic trust negotiations and go to the negotiating
00:16:44table?
00:16:46Look, the main problem with the JCPOA,
00:16:50the problem that many of us who supported it
00:16:54did not see carefully, was that the Americans
00:16:57received cash and gave credit.
00:17:00This time, the Islamic Republic is not willing to make
00:17:04this mistake. That is, in my opinion,
00:17:08the issue of sequencing, that is, who
00:17:12should take the first step, will be very important. In any case,
00:17:16what you are saying is absolutely true. It was the US that withdrew
00:17:19from the JCPOA, and twice the US, right
00:17:23when it was negotiating with Iran, attacked. But the Americans themselves
00:17:26are gradually coming to the conclusion that the issue of Iran's nuclear
00:17:30program, which is an important issue, is not the only important
00:17:34issue. The issue of Iran's nuclear
00:17:37program, the future of Hormuz, has no political
00:17:40solution. It has no military solution,
00:17:44it has a political solution, and as long as the US tries
00:17:47to come and turn negotiations
00:17:51into "you must do this,
00:17:55then I will decide what to do," well, this will lead
00:17:59nowhere. This war will continue
00:18:02and will harm US interests
00:18:06and the interests of the Islamic Republic. But there
00:18:09is a difference today compared to 2015. A major difference is that
00:18:13Arab countries, important Arab
00:18:16countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have realized
00:18:19that they must have a defense
00:18:22system, their military
00:18:26defense system should be more
00:18:29than just an alliance with the US. That is, if you look at
00:18:33this Mecca program, look at the Mecca agreement, what is the reason?
00:18:37Because Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion
00:18:41that the US cannot alone protect
00:18:44Saudi Arabia's interests. They saw that regarding
00:18:48Iran's attack, but can Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
00:18:51because now, in any case, Saudi Arabia has been attacked
00:18:55several times in the past few weeks by the Houthis, who are, in a way,
00:18:58Iran's partners and have a very close relationship
00:19:02with Iran. It has asked for help from the US,
00:19:05but has not received any. It is clear that
00:19:07it has also asked for help from its other partners
00:19:10but has not received any.
00:19:12Yes, look, regarding political issues,
00:19:16changing foreign policy is like
00:19:19changing the direction of a very large ship.
00:19:22You don't see this change
00:19:25in direction in a day or two, it takes time.
00:19:28Look, the very fact that Saudi Arabia
00:19:31has asked Turkey, has asked
00:19:35Pakistan to enter
00:19:38the Persian Gulf is very important. In addition, if you look, you will see that
00:19:42every day,
00:19:44China's economic and political power
00:19:48in the Persian Gulf is increasing. Is China replacing
00:19:51the US, Mr. Milani?
00:19:53China cannot replace the US, but China can take
00:19:57some of the US's power that until the Iran-US
00:20:01war, in this Chatham House article, my entire argument was that
00:20:04until the Iran-US war, US power
00:20:08was not challenged in
00:20:12the Persian Gulf. That is, it was Pax Americana,
00:20:15but after this, that power is gradually
00:20:19being challenged. It cannot change
00:20:22the US. The importance of the US will remain
00:20:26in its place, but other countries
00:20:29like China or even the Islamic Republic itself
00:20:32can play a greater role in the Persian Gulf.
00:20:36And therefore,
00:20:40the order that will exist in the Middle East will be an order
00:20:44that will be very different from today. We just had
00:20:48elections in the Israeli Knesset
00:20:51a few days ago, which showed that Mr. Netanyahu will remain as caretaker for now.
00:20:55My question is, if he has to step aside
00:20:59now with another election, with conditions that will become clearer
00:21:03in the coming days and weeks, for example, if Mr. Eisenkot comes in his place,
00:21:06will we see a major change? Because we constantly
00:21:10hear that they say Mr. Netanyahu has dragged Mr. Trump along
00:21:13here.
00:21:16Yes, I think that if Mr. Netanyahu
00:21:20is not elected, that is, if he cannot remain in power,
00:21:23which is possible, Israel's policies
00:21:26regarding Iran will change somewhat.
00:21:30If you look at the statements that Mr. Eisenkot himself
00:21:34has made, he has clearly
00:21:37announced that he does not pursue
00:21:41the policy of regime change, whereas Mr. Netanyahu
00:21:45wants to pursue this policy.
00:21:48Not that
00:21:50if Israel pursues this policy, it will succeed, but in
00:21:54any case, when a powerful country announces that
00:21:58it wants to overthrow the regime of another country,
00:22:01this is a very important issue. Therefore, Mr.
00:22:05Eisenkot, from the fact
00:22:07that he believes Iran's nuclear program
00:22:11and Iran's missile program are a very, very serious threat,
00:22:15he is like Mr. Netanyahu, but the way he wants
00:22:18to deal with Iran
00:22:21is different. In addition, a very important
00:22:24point I must mention about Mr. Netanyahu is this:
00:22:28individuals can play a very important
00:22:31role in foreign policy issues, even in democratic
00:22:35countries. Mr. Netanyahu has been in power for years
00:22:39and has created a very powerful network
00:22:41of supporters and fans, and he has a type
00:22:45of personality that can handle many
00:22:49issues. Therefore, if he leaves,
00:22:52it will take a long time for Mr. Eisenkot
00:22:55to be able to have the same influence
00:22:59that Mr. Netanyahu had. But unlike
00:23:02many who think that there will be no change
00:23:05in Israel's policy, I think that
00:23:08if Eisenkot wins the elections,
00:23:11and if Eisenkot is asked
00:23:14to form a government and can form a government,
00:23:18and if Arab groups
00:23:21in Israel's foreign policy regarding Iran,
00:23:25we will see some good changes.
00:23:28Iran's government, you yourself mentioned
00:23:31it in this interview, is a government that a large part
00:23:35of the people currently have issues with, criticize it.
00:23:38They are interested in overthrowing it. You yourself have repeatedly said
00:23:41that you are against revolution, you believe
00:23:45that revolution does not yield the necessary result, and war apparently
00:23:48has not yielded the result that at least some people wanted.
00:23:52What do you think the solution can be for the Iranian people?
00:23:55Look, you are absolutely right. Revolutions usually,
00:23:58if you look at all these revolutions in the world, from the French Revolution
00:24:02to Russia to China and other revolutions,
00:24:05revolution is for people who think they can achieve very rapid progress,
00:24:09meaning, as they say, they can find a shortcut,
00:24:13and this usually does not happen. War
00:24:15is the same. War usually changes the nature of governments.
00:24:19The Iran-Iraq War changed the nature of the Islamic Republic.
00:24:23I think that what needs to happen in Iran,
00:24:26I don't know how much will happen, but
00:24:30for me, this is the most fundamental issue that Iran is facing.
00:24:34These policies of the Islamic Republic
00:24:37in these last 45 years, 50 years, have not
00:24:40reached where they wanted to. Therefore, there must be a kind
00:24:44of reconsideration, and this reconsideration must have three
00:24:47pillars. The first is that Iran's power
00:24:51and Iran's deterrence power must be increased.
00:24:54Second, the issue of development and the economic
00:24:58situation of the people must be the second
00:25:01pillar, and third, democracy. Ms. Ghazizadeh,
00:25:05for 150 years, from before
00:25:08the Constitutional Revolution until today, we have talked
00:25:11about modernity, we have talked about development.
00:25:14These three pillars that I mentioned, power
00:25:17and development and improved welfare,
00:25:20and democracy, all three must move forward
00:25:24together. And unfortunately, we have not moved this forward. Two years ago,
00:25:27around these days, I think it was, that Mr. Pezeshkian first came
00:25:31to New York, to that meeting where many prominent Iranian
00:25:35experts were present, and you were also there.
00:25:38Did you tell him these things? Did you give him such suggestions? What
00:25:42did he say? What did Iranian officials say in response to these words to people like
00:25:46you? Well, this meeting that took place,
00:25:50it was a meeting with about 12 or 13 Iranian
00:25:54professors, and each of us
00:25:57had no more than three or four minutes.
00:26:00We said very general things. To tell you the truth,
00:26:04I didn't take notes, but I'm sure if I said anything,
00:26:07it was about the fact that the issue of relations with
00:26:11the US must be normalized somehow, because
00:26:15this is my main theme. Because I believe that as long
00:26:18as Iran does not normalize its relations with the US
00:26:21or try to learn how to manage
00:26:25their differences, their differences
00:26:29economically.
00:26:53This war, these two wars woke
00:26:57up our nation, and now it will take
00:27:00some years, it may take some time to see what
00:27:04the positive changes will be. But the example
00:27:07I gave you, the ship of politics
00:27:11in Iran is gradually changing direction.
00:27:15Thank you very much. Thank you for this hopeful ending. Mohsen
00:27:18Milani, Professor of International Relations, thank you for being with us.
00:28:30videos like this over social media,
00:28:34easily produced, high volume, and often very
00:28:37weird. AI is making it easier to scam us. It was
00:28:41my voice, it was my phone number. on that day I hadn't
00:28:45spoken to her. In the age of artificial
00:28:48intelligence, Panorama asks, is
00:28:52seeing still
00:28:53believing?
00:30:36and now on BBC Persian TV,
00:30:39a documentary.
00:30:42What does a mobile phone do in the hands of small children? What effect
00:30:46does watching TV, computers, and mobile phones
00:30:49have on the psyche of children? Can you give a child a mobile phone
00:30:53whenever they cry to keep them entertained?
00:30:57In a world where screens are
00:31:00everywhere.