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00:00:31After the US midterm elections, what kind of disagreements have emerged within
00:00:35the US regarding the follow-up actions on the Iran issue? Does
00:00:39the risk of escalating US-Iran conflict still exist? Top Iranian officials warn
00:00:42against abandoning illusions about the US and strengthening preparedness for war. Is the diplomatic
00:00:46window between the two sides narrowing again? Israel's cabinet formation is surging
00:00:50with undercurrents. The opposition accuses Netanyahu's administration of harming US-Israel relations.
00:00:54How will Netanyahu's domestic and external predicament affect his
00:00:58decision-making on Iran? Please watch Global
00:01:11Global Vision, live on the news channel. I'm Huang Feng.
00:01:15The midterm elections have just concluded. What changes have occurred within the US regarding
00:01:19the direction of Iran policy? What new variables have emerged in the
00:01:23US-Iran game of talk and fight? The results of the Israeli parliamentary elections have been officially announced,
00:01:26but undercurrents are surging in the cabinet formation.
00:01:49First, let's watch a short video to learn about the latest developments between the US and Iran. After the US
00:01:52Congressional midterm elections, how to proceed with the next steps
00:01:56on the Iran issue has become a major focus of external attention. On the 4th,
00:02:30US Vice President Pence posted a long article on social media, stating frankly
00:02:33that the root cause of the Republican Party's failure was the Iran war. Pence
00:02:37admitted that he had a bad feeling before the midterm elections, and
00:02:41cited the views of poll experts to propose four tasks to bring voters back to the Republican
00:02:45Party: ending the Iran war, addressing the cost of
00:02:49living and inflation issues, insisting on America First, and changing
00:02:53US-Israel relations. US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer
00:02:57said on the 4th that the Iran war must be...
00:03:30Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on US military bases in the
00:03:34region, and other actions are responses to US aggression.
00:03:38If aggression occurs again, the scale of the response will
00:03:42be greatly expanded. Just on the 3rd, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
00:03:46Corps released a video. The representative of Iran's Supreme Leader inspected
00:03:50Iran's southern naval missile tunnel. The tunnel contains a large
00:03:53number of anti-ship missiles and suicide drones. The video also
00:03:57showed images of anti-ship missiles hitting targets.
00:04:01For us, defensive power in this region creates
00:04:04deterrence and a decisive response to terrorist
00:04:07aggression.
00:04:08Local time on the 5th, the Revolutionary Guard stated that its naval unmanned submarine unit
00:04:16had shot down a US MQ-9 drone in the eastern airspace of the Strait of Hormuz two days ago.
00:04:22However, the US was also conducting exercises. On the 3rd, a senior US official
00:04:24不過美商也在進行3號原一名高級官
00:05:12American voters do not like this war and hope to end it
00:05:16as soon as possible. From President Trump's remarks in the
00:05:20past two days, to Vice President Pence's remarks, to the Democratic
00:05:24Party leader's remarks, all indicate that the President,
00:05:28Vice President, and Democrats have all received this signal and hope to end the
00:05:31war as soon as possible. This is actually nothing
00:05:35new. Just a few days after the war started on February
00:05:3928th, the US already realized that this war could not be won in the end.
00:05:42Since then, the US has always wanted to end the war as soon as possible.
00:05:46But its problem and difficulty is that there is no good
00:05:50way to end the war. So this was the problem before
00:05:54the election, and it is still the problem after the election. If you want to end the war,
00:05:58the US has no good choices. The US's choices are bad
00:06:01choices, worse choices, and the worst choices.
00:06:05It depends on what the US wants from these three choices. So far,
00:06:09the US is unwilling to make a clear choice. Every time it says,
00:06:13"I might have to fight soon," but I haven't made the final
00:06:17choice. It's difficult for it to make a choice. Bad,
00:06:21worse, worst, it's unwilling to choose any of them. So far,
00:06:24there are still three options. That is, an agreement can be reached through negotiation,
00:06:28then Iran can be attacked again, and the war can also drag on.
00:06:32These three choices are all very unfavorable for the United States.
00:06:36To negotiate means to make concessions to Iran, or even surrender
00:06:40to Iran, which the United States is unwilling to do.
00:06:52So the difficulties before and the difficulties now are basically the same.
00:08:12On the other hand, it has nearly 200 transport flights transporting
00:08:16a large amount of such ammunition to the Middle East.
00:08:20So this process actually shows that from the White House's perspective, it
00:08:24is not only preparing for war, but also possibly
00:08:27preparing for such frequent, multiple wars.
00:08:31Therefore, when so many military resources are already present
00:08:35in the Middle East, then whether to launch such
00:08:38a war, I think its possibility, in fact, we cannot
00:08:42easily rule out any direction. In addition,
00:08:46in fact, what we just talked about is the subjective aspect. From an objective perspective,
00:08:50once the war starts, whether the United States can
00:08:54control the scale and duration of the war is actually a very big
00:08:57problem. In fact, as early as February 28th this year, when the United States
00:09:01first launched this war against Iran, it was obvious
00:09:05that the United States wanted a lightning war, hoping
00:09:08to end this war very quickly, but when the war started...
00:10:12It has now been proven that this war against the Iranian regime, the war
00:10:16against Iran, did not overthrow the Iranian regime, but it overthrew
00:10:20half of the US regime. So the Congress can be said to have overthrown half
00:10:24of the regime. In the United States, those who are now opposed to
00:10:27the Iran war, actually won this time.
00:10:31Because the Democratic Party opposed the Iran war from the beginning. The Democratic Party now controls
00:10:35the Senate and the House of Representatives. Then, within the Republican Party and
00:10:39within the White House, Pence and many other senators
00:10:43and representatives opposed the war from the beginning, but they did not
00:10:47dare to speak out. Because at that time, the President's power was relatively great.
00:10:50Now some people dare to openly speak out, so they oppose
00:10:54the war.
00:12:25He opposes this war, but he does not oppose
00:12:29putting greater pressure on Iran. So we can see that
00:12:32among the conditions put forward by Iran,
00:12:36there are quite a few, such as lifting sanctions on Iran,
00:12:40unfreezing related assets. All these issues require
00:12:44Congress to give a green light. But it is very obvious that under
00:12:48the background of the Democratic Party governing Congress, it is difficult to reach
00:12:52such an agreement. Whether
00:13:07it is due to US domestic political considerations or the overall US policy towards Iran, it is unlikely. So, negotiations have become a very difficult matter. The US and Iran may maintain relevant political contact, but reaching a comprehensive
00:13:11agreement will be very difficult. At the same time, we can
00:13:15also see that Iran is currently facing great internal
00:13:19pressure. So, although we say that the Supreme Leader has given the
00:13:22government a certain authorization, the phrase "certain authorization" itself also
00:13:26means that this authorization has boundaries and does not mean
00:13:30that the government can completely make concessions on a series of
00:13:34issues without any restrictions. Therefore, future
00:13:38political negotiations between the US and Iran may fall into a stalemate
00:13:41and deadlock. Okay, we just focused on the US midterm elections. Another
00:13:45election that just concluded is the Israeli parliamentary election. The results
00:13:49have been officially announced, and the cabinet formation process has begun.
00:13:53So, against this background, what choice will Netanyahu, who has always wanted to push for
00:13:57another strike against Iran, make? Let's watch another short video.
00:14:01After the chairman of the Israeli Central
00:14:05Election Committee, Supreme Court Justice Solberg, officially submitted the results
00:14:08of the Israeli parliamentary elections to President Herzog, from the evening of the
00:14:124th to the 5th, Herzog began consultations with various parties,
00:14:16listening to recommendations from all sides for cabinet formation candidates. This
00:14:20means that the process of forming Israel's new government has officially begun.
00:14:23According to the parliament.
00:14:39The Arab Joint List, which does not belong to any camp but opposes the current government, won a total of 19 seats.
00:14:43Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the 5th published an article attacking
00:14:46the domestic Arab Joint List and called for the formation of a government led
00:14:50by the Likud bloc. Former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense
00:14:54Forces, political party.
00:15:20At the same time, major US mainstream media predicted that the US Democratic Party
00:15:24would win Congress in the midterm elections.
00:15:46military action, US military action against Iran, etc., US public support for Israel has generally declined, and there are increasing voices within both parties criticizing Israel and questioning US aid to Israel. Just on the day of the US midterm elections,
00:15:50US President Trump suddenly announced
00:15:54that the approximately $4 billion in aid the US provides to Israel annually
00:15:58would end at the end of this year,
00:16:01and claimed that this idea was proposed by Netanyahu.
00:16:05However, as of now,
00:16:11Netanyahu's office has not yet made an official response. According to Israeli media reports, core officials from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, military, and Ministry of Finance were shocked
00:16:15when they heard the news, as if they had fallen out of their chairs.
00:16:19Some Ministry of Finance officials privately complained, "Although we knew
00:16:22there was an intention to cut funding, we were caught off guard by the immediate
00:16:26implementation." Eisenkot even stated on the 3rd that Israel
00:16:30only learned through media reports that the framework of US-Israel strategic relations
00:16:34had changed.
00:16:52rekindling war with Iran will help Netanyahu, who is currently struggling to form a government,
00:16:56to form an emergency government. Facing the risk of a renewed
00:17:00war, the Gulf countries' tensions are being raised. Many
00:17:04Gulf countries are on the one hand promoting diplomatic de-escalation.
00:17:37The camp's seats in parliament, with the support of the Arab Joint
00:17:41List, can pass the majority. On the other hand, we see how the Associated Press
00:17:45reported on Netanyahu's intention to push for a new round of strikes between the US
00:17:49and Iran. It said, if a full-scale war breaks out with Iran,
00:17:53it might help Netanyahu form an emergency government.
00:17:57。
00:18:00Given the US's unclear attitude towards restarting the Iran war,
00:18:04what do you think is the current situation for the incumbent government?
00:18:38most likely to form a government, and then who will be appointed
00:18:41to form it? Now, the two Arab parties both say they support
00:18:45Eisenkot's formation. But if Eisenkot wants to unite with
00:18:49these two Arab parties, Eisenkot's current 48 seats
00:18:53in the Jewish camp will split, because these 48 seats
00:18:57are composed of the most right-wing parties, the most right-wing
00:19:01parties. The most right-wing party told Eisenkot,
00:19:05"If you unite with the Arabs, then we will not be with you."
00:19:09So, at least for now, even if Eisenkot tries to form
00:19:12a government, in the current situation, he still cannot form
00:19:16one. But for Netanyahu, the bad news is that Netanyahu's
00:19:20Likud bloc originally won the position of the largest
00:19:24party in the election, and then Netanyahu's bloc was also the largest
00:19:28bloc. But in this situation, two Arab parties
00:19:31support Eisenkot, and then within Netanyahu's bloc,
00:19:35the far-right religious parties told the president that they are currently
00:19:39not expressing support for Netanyahu to form a government. So, on the issue
00:19:43of forming a government, Eisenkot has the advantage. He can form
00:19:47a government first.
00:19:49。
00:19:52In the future, he can launch a war, he can, that is,
00:19:56sabotage the opposition party's government formation. In this situation,
00:20:00although he cannot form a government, if the opposition party also fails to form one,
00:20:03he can remain in power as a caretaker.
00:21:20Under his leadership, Israel has become a military power that can achieve
00:21:23housing self-sufficiency. This is the big background
00:21:27of Netanyahu's proposal at that time to supposedly cut off US military
00:21:31aid to Israel. And Trump's statement this time,
00:21:35and the immediate implementation, actually points to
00:21:39responding to the current dissatisfaction of the American public
00:21:42with this situation or with the Republican Party's
00:21:46related issues, which includes the war.
00:22:50Especially the deterioration of US-Israel political relations is not a recent matter. Over
00:22:54the past decade or so, US-Israel political relations have become increasingly estranged.
00:22:57A very important reason is that Israeli politics
00:23:01has been moving to the right for the past 20 years. This has led many Democrats
00:23:05in the US to believe that Israel and the US have
00:23:09experienced significant differences in values. Many Americans believe
00:23:12that Israel is no longer a democracy that the US identifies with.
00:23:16So they began to distance themselves from Israel. Of course. In the past three
00:23:20years, the whole world has opposed Israel, including many who believe that
00:23:24Israel has gone too far. But the Trump administration has unilaterally
00:23:28supported Israel, which has also led many Americans to be dissatisfied with the Trump
00:23:32administration and with Israel. So in this election,
00:23:35the Israeli issue became a very important issue in the US
00:23:39election. In particular, Michigan elected a senator who clearly opposes
00:23:43Israel, which is unprecedented in history. So in the future,
00:23:47for a considerable period of time, Israel and the United States may
00:24:20The country's current situation is relatively awkward. On the one hand,
00:24:24the Gulf countries are trying to persuade the US not to use force against Iran,
00:24:27to avoid being affected. But at the same time, the Gulf countries must express
00:24:31so-called support for the US, in order to bind
00:24:35their defense cooperation with the US, hoping to continue to obtain
00:24:39relevant defense protection from the US. However,
00:24:43in this situation, we can actually see that the US's so-called protection
00:24:47of regional countries is becoming increasingly weak.
00:24:50On the one hand, we are saying that this protection itself is constantly being
00:24:54attacked. We have seen that in the past six months, a series of US
00:24:58bases in the Middle East have been attacked, and personnel have also
00:25:02withdrawn. At the same time, in fact, the US's
00:25:06commitment to regional countries is also becoming less credible.
00:25:10And the US's will to defend regional countries is also
00:25:13decreasing. So all these defenses have become a transaction.
00:25:17This also makes regional countries feel helpless. .
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