Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00The streets are holy. This. Death to the
00:00:02hypocrites.
00:00:05Hypocrites. Death to the hypocrites.
00:00:08God bless all of you. God bless all of you. Now I want to invite
00:00:12you to watch these images.
00:00:14The images speak for themselves. I will
00:00:18not talk about them at all. I just ask you,
00:00:22dear boys and girls, dear guests, that we are all
00:00:25guests of our martyr tonight. Please pay
00:00:29attention to these images, and if your eyes
00:00:33fill with tears and your heart is transformed, do
00:00:37not deprive us of your good prayers. Ya Ali Madad. Please
00:00:40watch, kids. Hello.
00:00:43Hello. How are you?
00:00:47How are you? Thank God. Please
00:00:51sit down. On the occasion of Students'
00:00:54Day, we have guests.
00:00:58Invite them. Yes, they want to
00:01:01talk to you. You all know
00:01:04them. Should I tell them to come?
00:01:07Yes, kids, be respectful.
00:01:11Kids, hello. Hello.
00:01:14Hello, hello, hello. Are you good?
00:01:17Yes, they have energy in the morning. God bless them. Yes.
00:01:20God bless them. They had their head and feet stew. On the occasion of Students'
00:01:24Day, November 4th,
00:01:26we have a question for you.
00:01:37Read it. The most
00:01:40honest sentence to the
00:01:43Supreme Leader of
00:01:46the Revolution. Yes, who volunteers?
00:01:49Come here. You come. It's
00:01:52that the Leader of the Revolution should take
00:01:55revenge for our martyred leader from America and Israel
00:01:59as soon as possible. What a beautiful sentence. I will
00:02:02fight the enemies to the death for
00:02:05Iran.
00:02:07My sentence is that he should
00:02:11take revenge for these children
00:02:14whose blood was shed, 168 children. Who should take
00:02:18revenge? To whom do you say, Mr. Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, I just want to
00:02:21tell Mr. Seyyed Mojtaba, the destruction of Israel and America.
00:02:25Why? Because we have grudges against them. Now, maybe someone will see
00:02:29it and say.
00:02:42It's true that we are children, but we see these wars and these events that happen. What do you want to
00:02:45tell Mr. Mojtaba? Protect
00:02:49yourself.
00:02:49I promise Mr. Mojtaba that
00:02:54I will fight for my country until the
00:02:58end of my life. Why do you make this promise
00:03:01to him? Because we children must
00:03:05study. Mr. Khamenei himself said, I promise to study or
00:03:09become a scientist and with the years that we build, we can defeat America and Israel.
00:03:13Well done, become a scientist. What do you want to invent? For example,
00:03:16missiles, weapons of war. What good
00:03:20will it do us to destroy
00:03:21America and Israel?
00:03:24Mr. Hadi, you tell us. Sir, I only have
00:03:28one heartfelt wish, and that is for them to pray
00:03:31for us so that we are always under the shade of the Quran.
00:03:35The most
00:03:38honest sentence to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution. Well, you
00:03:42tell us, Alireza. We have made a covenant with you
00:03:45to remain loyal to this country and this revolution until the
00:03:49end, and even to be martyred for this revolution.
00:03:52Well, Mr. Mojtaba, what do you want to say?
00:03:56I love you very much. Do you love
00:04:00them, kids? Have you ever thought
00:04:04about writing a letter to our dear
00:04:07leader?
00:04:09Yes, yes. Who has thought
00:04:12about it?
00:04:15For example, have you thought about it yourself? We wrote it and
00:04:18mailed it. What did you write in the
00:04:21letter? We wrote to the leader that
00:04:24we love him very much. Did you write it yourself?
00:04:28Yes. Why did you write
00:04:31the letter? I
00:04:35felt that it would be great
00:04:39to have a way to communicate between me and Mr. Agha. Then I saw that, for example, you can't
00:04:42call, you can't send
00:04:45voice messages, you can't send photos, because they might not reach him. I saw
00:04:49that sending a letter is better. What was the result? I don't
00:04:52know. Now, you
00:04:55know he's very busy. So, did you
00:04:59have it for him to read? Yes, and you were also
00:05:03following up to see if your letter reached him or not?
00:05:06Yes, I was praying. What were you
00:05:09praying for? For it to reach him.
00:05:14Let's do
00:05:14something else.
00:05:18In the name of God, hello. Sir, I am Alireza
00:05:22Bakhshi. I am 10
00:05:26years old and I live in Tehran. Is that
00:05:29right? Yes, come
00:05:31on, read it. Give
00:05:33it to me, I'll hold it for you.
00:05:36Honestly, I don't know if my letter will reach you or
00:05:40not. I wish I could talk to you in person. Honestly,
00:05:43we are very
00:05:47grateful for your guidance. We are indebted
00:05:49to you. This money is also to thank
00:05:53you and to help the fighters of Islam. Your
00:05:57friends, your friends, Bakhshi, this
00:06:00color 23645.
00:06:03P.S. Happy birthday
00:06:05with research. Clap, kids.
00:06:08For.
00:06:42Don't say it until I bring the
00:06:45microphone. Keep your
00:06:47eyes closed.
00:06:50Yes, Alireza, start reading from here. No, no, open
00:06:54your eyes, I'll hold it. Read from here, I'll hold it for
00:06:57you, my dear. My dear friend, Mr. Ali.
00:07:01In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. My dear friend, Mr. Alireza
00:07:04Bakhshi, peace, mercy, and blessings of God be upon
00:07:08you. Thank you for your
00:07:11kind attention. Of course. The birthday of this servant is in the month of Esfand.
00:07:14In return, I also present a gift,
00:07:18albeit humble, in return for your generosity. Please accept
00:07:22my greetings to your family members. Seyyed Mojtaba
00:07:25Khamenei, October 19, 2024. P.S. We have a lot of readability.
00:07:48Very
00:07:49auspicious.
00:07:54You made
00:07:55us cry.
00:08:00Alireza, did you see what happened?
00:08:04It reached
00:08:05Mr. Agha.
00:08:09He's crying tears of joy, kids.
00:08:20You said your prayer was that you
00:08:22would think.
00:08:27My dear, I didn't. Happy
00:08:30birthday. So, now what do
00:08:34you want to tell Mr. Agha? I love you very
00:08:36much. Thank you for
00:08:39answering my letter. Besides this, I also sent
00:08:43a gift for you, and it will be presented
00:08:46to you, God willing. Oh, my dear. A smile
00:08:49appeared. Well, kids,
00:08:52how are you? We're good. How are you?
00:08:56Why were you
00:08:59crying? I felt how much the leader cares
00:09:03about us and especially about children
00:09:06of our age, even though he was very busy, but when the letter
00:09:09reached him.
00:09:19And Mr. Agha, with all the work he had, he was
00:09:23busy, but he sat down and read Alireza's letter. Yes.
00:09:26Well, Mr. Alireza Khanan.
00:09:30Let's go see another great person
00:09:34together. Let's go see
00:09:36him. You've become Mr. Agha's friend.
00:09:40And your letter was also noticed by him. We should also
00:09:44be acknowledged. Let's go, I've come
00:09:48to a party to see him. Look, his friends are
00:09:52following him from there.
00:09:57Hello. Hello, how are you?
00:09:59How are you? Are you well, are you healthy?
00:10:03God willing. We were with the children today and some things
00:10:06happened. Alireza, tell
00:10:09your mother yourself what happened. Tell them what happened.
00:10:12First, I had given a letter
00:10:16to Mr. Agha.
00:10:17Well, Mr. Agha answered me.
00:11:25He wrote whatever was in his heart in the letter. They told me that I was indebted
00:11:29for this letter, but to those people who I thought would deliver the letter
00:11:33to Mr. Agha, I put the travel check with that
00:11:36letter in an envelope and took it to the place where I thought that well,
00:11:39we would send other gifts for the resistance front and the office
00:11:43and so on. I gave this to them too. They also said
00:11:46hello to you and said that Alireza, please convey
00:11:49his greetings to you. Thank
00:11:52you, sir. May God protect you, God willing. Mr. Agha's
00:11:55birthday is also in Esfand. Yes, we also thought it was in Shahrivar.
00:11:59You had given the gift earlier, right?
00:12:03Because in social media, they said that Mr. Agha's birthday is in Shahrivar. Yes, with
00:12:06his own blessed handwriting, you can see for yourselves.
00:12:25I invite Mr. Alireza Bakhshi, along with his dear
00:12:47mother, Ms. Gribanani, to come to the
00:12:51stage. Please send that beautiful and special Salawat.
00:12:55Oh God, bless Muhammad
00:12:58and the family of Muhammad
00:13:02and hasten
00:13:03his reappearance.
00:13:11Yes, we will continue the program, "At the Time of Iran," with you.
00:13:14We will continue to review the midterm
00:13:17elections of the United States of America. Mr. Hooshmand, you were mentioning a part that has
00:13:21been done. A supplementary explanation from the beginning.
00:13:29We explained the structure, and considering that the election
00:13:32day in America is always Tuesday, and it's a working
00:13:36day, that's why, according to the law, from
00:13:39about a month and a half in some states and in some states up to
00:13:43a month, early voting or absentee
00:13:46voting takes place, and people can either
00:13:50vote earlier than the scheduled time before
00:13:54election day, at the polling stations,
00:13:57or they can send their ballot by
00:14:01mail. And according to the
00:14:04statistics published so far, about 54 million people have
00:14:08participated in the elections, and usually, it's like this:
00:14:12until the day before election day, usually half of the voters
00:14:15participate, and the other half of the voters usually participate
00:14:19on election day itself. The election has been held.
00:14:22All
00:14:25if I'm not mistaken, 10-110 million are supposed to vote. This is an estimated
00:14:29turnout if it's like previous periods. But
00:14:31probably, based on our estimates, in the
00:14:35states that have voted so far, the turnout in
00:14:39this year's elections will likely be higher.
00:14:42Yes, well, that's why, Mr. Amin, let me ask you, Mr. Abbasi, that some
00:14:46people say that multiple factors
00:14:49no longer affect the elections. Part of it is that, hey, half of the people have already
00:14:52voted in America. Yes, exactly. Now, nearly 54 million have
00:14:56voted, and a large number have decided whom to vote for. A
00:14:59PEW survey in 2024 had found
00:15:02that 95% of Americans said that they basically make their decision
00:15:06about whom to vote for a week before the election. So, effectively, 5%
00:15:10are left who haven't decided which candidate to vote
00:15:13for, and effectively, the window to influence the American elections has closed, whether
00:15:17by Democrats or Republicans. Even this last-minute withdrawal of this candidate, for example,
00:15:20who suddenly withdrew, the rival of Al-Sayyid in the primary elections for
00:15:24Nafas Khan, basically because it was 24 hours before the election, it didn't
00:15:28really affect the electoral atmosphere of Michigan. And well,
00:15:31this 24 hours now, we actually have two more,
00:15:35the House of Representatives and the Senate. Yes, what is the situation
00:15:39of these two now in terms of predictions and
00:15:42election estimates for the House of Representatives? Almost all estimates say that the Democrats
00:15:46will win the elections. That is, even Fox News, which is a Republican media outlet, the estimate
00:15:50it published in recent days, for example, says at least 2019 seats
00:15:54that they need to gain a majority will be won by the Democrats. That is, out of
00:15:57435, almost 219 of them are predicted by almost
00:16:01everyone to be in favor of the Democrats. Betting
00:16:05agencies, for example, the two famous ones, Carb.
00:16:07And then, for example, such betting agencies also now give 90-95%
00:16:11and Play Market 90-95% chance of victory to the
00:16:14Democrats. They give 5% chance, for example, now
00:16:18to the Republicans for victory. But the Senate
00:16:21is a very close race, with eight competitive states, from
00:16:25Kansas and, in a way, conservative states like Nebraska, to
00:16:28states like Maine, Texas, and Alaska.
00:16:31Well, there's a concern, a discussion
00:16:35about the Israeli elections as well. This was that
00:16:38all the polls, now that you're saying the polls
00:16:42say the House of Representatives is almost
00:16:45a question related to the Senate, which we will
00:16:49delve into now. You will certainly discuss it with statistics,
00:16:52charts, and images, but there was a discussion
00:16:56in the Israeli elections, which was that many
00:17:00or most of the polls that we saw in the Israeli elections
00:17:03were saying that, at least, they weren't saying.
00:17:37And a point about the polls themselves, for example,
00:17:40Netanyahu's coalition was at 51, now it's 54,
00:17:44which means a difference of 3. The biggest party,
00:17:48meaning Netanyahu, won the most votes in most
00:17:51polls. How many? 27, if
00:17:55yes, but the Yasha party
00:17:58in the polls got more votes.
00:18:01But if we look at the overall polls,
00:18:04it was almost correct in what way in Israel? Because
00:18:08they have a threshold issue. If you get less than one percent
00:18:11of the votes, you don't get in. If you remember, in that program we had,
00:18:15we were talking about that if they don't get enough votes, some of
00:18:19those votes are wasted, some go to others through a process whose
00:18:22explanation is beyond this. And because it was divided, it went to the Arabs.
00:18:26For example, according to the polls, if turnout reaches a certain
00:18:30percentage, which we also said in the program, Arabs can get 18 seats,
00:18:33and they got 19 seats. And this is the point: when polls
00:18:37are very close, sometimes the margin of error,
00:18:41the difference, reaches, for example, 3%, 4%,
00:18:435%. Good polls have a 4% margin of error.
00:18:47When it says 4% in America, it's about
00:18:5039%, meaning that the poll itself,
00:18:54what it's predicting, is within its margin of error. So, basically,
00:18:57in these places where the races are very close,
00:19:00this error naturally occurs.
00:19:04So, let's get into all aspects. Now, Mr. Hooshmand,
00:19:09yes, the analyses that are done and the prediction
00:19:12models based on polls exist. Well, in
00:19:16America, we have various companies and institutions that
00:19:20conduct polls. The important point is that
00:19:23when looking at which institution conducted
00:19:27this poll and what its rating is, the higher their rating,
00:19:30the more credible it is. But usually, this margin
00:19:33of error that polls have is, for example, between
00:19:372 and 14 percent. This is when the election is
00:19:40close, meaning for example, if
00:19:43in the state of Maine, we see that in the average of polls, Mr.
00:19:47Troy Jackson is, for example, about 2 percent ahead.
00:19:51This shows that in
00:19:54yes, yes, he's competing with Susan Collins. This shows us that this is within
00:19:58the margin of error of the polls. When
00:20:01can we say that a candidate is leading and their victory can
00:20:05be serious? When, for example, the difference between two candidates
00:20:09is above 45, it becomes a safe margin.
00:20:13Now, for example, in states like Georgia and North Carolina, we know
00:20:17that Mr. Jon Ossoff in Georgia is more than
00:20:208% ahead, and Mr. Roy Cooper in North Carolina
00:20:23is more than 9%. We are sure that these two Democrats will definitely
00:20:27win in these two duels. Here, the polls show us this.
00:20:30If the difference is more than 45% in the polls, then
00:20:34we can say with a higher degree of confidence that the situation has gone
00:20:38in favor of one side. The probability is higher, it's not
00:20:41definite. One point is about
00:20:44the average of the polls. That is, now, for example, in some states, the average is still
00:20:473.5%, but well, some states.
00:21:26it makes a difference with what margin the Democrats win in the House of Representatives.
00:21:29Does it make a difference, for example, if they get 220 seats or
00:21:33260 seats? If it's very close, similar to what the
00:21:36Republicans currently have, 218 to 217, approximately, then
00:21:39if, for example, two Republicans
00:21:43align with the Democrats, the Republicans cannot carry out their legislation.
00:21:47If it's very close, this risk exists for the party.
00:21:50But if the difference is significant, this risk decreases, and the political message
00:21:54that is naturally being conveyed is that well, an "blue tsunami" has
00:21:57come, meaning the Democrats have been able to achieve a decisive victory, and
00:22:01well, this is very important for Trump and his government. How is it now? Now, I want to wait one
00:22:05minute for the representatives, and then we'll get to the Senate. Regarding the representatives,
00:22:08can we also give an opinion on the margin of victory
00:22:12for the Democrats according to the predictions? Yes, look, for the Democrats to
00:22:15be able to win the majority of the House of Representatives, they need to win 218 seats.
00:22:19The higher this number goes, meaning
00:22:22if it's around 220
00:22:26or a little more than 220, then it's a close victory.
00:22:29But if a "blue wave" is to happen, it should be between
00:22:33220 and 230. If it's above
00:22:36240, then a "blue tsunami"
00:22:39has practically happened, similar to what happened in
00:22:432018 in the midterm elections of Trump's first administration, and
00:22:46the Democrats had 241 seats. Why? Because
00:22:52in some areas, we see that conservative
00:22:56Democrats sometimes disagree with some issues of the Democratic
00:23:00Party. They oppose it. In these cases,
00:23:03they vote with the Republicans. So, it's in the best interest of the Democratic
00:23:07Party for its peace of mind in passing legislation and advancing
00:23:11matters to be able to have a majority of over 230.
00:23:14CNN's current estimate is
00:23:17232. Election expert
00:23:41we said that in the electoral districts, the Republicans intentionally
00:23:44drew the state maps in such a way that they would win more seats
00:23:47in some states. Well, this was met with resistance, and now
00:23:51the estimates are that the Democrats can win more than 230 seats.
00:23:55Now, there was a concern, Wahid, do you remember, that in the American elections, Trump
00:23:59might, for example, bring in, what do I know, the ICE police? The same thing that was being
00:24:02said about Netanyahu. Can you say now, in
00:24:06these, what do I know, 54 million people who
00:24:09voted, have there been any reports of this issue,
00:24:12that there were pressures or not? This is not very serious.
00:24:16We had a few reports that the government had tried
00:24:20to do these things, and even close some
00:24:23polling stations. But for example, in
00:24:26Alaska, a judge stopped the implementation of this order.
00:24:30That is, the government has made its effort, and it will
00:24:33make this effort on election day as well. But there are some legal obstacles
00:24:37that can prevent these. But this really shows
00:24:41itself when the election is very close. For example, in
00:24:45the state of Texas, where the governor of the state is also a Republican,
00:24:48they made this effort. For example, in areas
00:24:51and districts where there was competition and the Democrats
00:24:55had the majority, meaning the population of that city was composed
00:24:59of Democrats, they had closed about 90 polling
00:25:02stations. Then the Democrats are forced to leave their
00:25:06own county and go, for example, to the
00:25:09county seat, and since this distance is far,
00:25:13some people hope that, for example, they will not participate in the next
00:25:16election. That is, there are some actions of this kind that
00:25:20show themselves on election day. Sometimes we might not have had
00:25:24an example or a sign before, but the government
00:25:27tries to lower Democratic participation with these actions.
00:25:31But if a blue wave has happened,
00:25:34then these hundreds of thousands of votes no longer have an effect.
00:25:38This Alaska case that you mentioned is also very interesting. It will probably
00:25:41be one of the states that will cause a lot of controversy after the election,
00:25:45and Trump will probably complain. There are two candidates with the same
00:25:49name, Dan Sullivan. One is independent, one is
00:25:52Republican. Then the Democratic candidate is Ms. Mary Peltola. She is now ahead
00:25:56in the polls. But a large number of people go to the polls and mistakenly,
00:25:59for example, confuse these Sullivans. And Trump brought
00:26:05this independent candidate so that many people at the polls would make such a mistake. This will probably
00:26:09be one of the states that will cause controversy. You talked about the law regarding
00:26:12independents. What role do independents play in this game? How many
00:26:16are there? Are they significant or not? Look, when
00:26:19we say a senator, a politician in America
00:26:23is independent, they were usually previously a member of one of the parties,
00:26:27meaning they were either Republican or Democrat.
00:26:30They had differences on some issues.
00:26:32Or they see that their constituency and district's
00:26:36people have become inclined to another party. Here, they become, so to speak,
00:26:39independent and have a state of independence from
00:26:43that party. Now, in the Senate, we have two independent
00:26:46senators: Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Senator
00:26:50Angus King. So, out of 100, we have two independents. The other 98
00:26:54are divided. These two are practically Democrats because
00:26:58all alliances are with Democrats, and everyone knows that these two are Democrats.
00:27:01So, there is not much credibility to the term "independent." A miracle
00:27:05might happen. Of course, it's really a miracle that in the state of Nebraska,
00:27:08the candidate who is currently leading in the polls is an independent candidate. Why? Because
00:27:12the Democratic candidate withdrew in favor of this Don Osborne, who is an independent in the state of Nebraska.
00:27:16Nebraska is a conservative and Republican state. There is a very high probability that
00:27:20Republicans will win. But if he wins, and he is a couple of percent
00:27:23behind, then this will become the first truly independent
00:27:27senator to win. Okay, let's go to the Senate
00:27:31and the swing states. Now, regarding the Senate, what
00:27:34do the polls say? What is the situation? Well, the states that are
00:27:38not decisive and are, after all, predictable and can be decided,
00:27:42and those states that are actually decisive and are swing states,
00:27:45so to speak. Yes. Our picture
00:27:48in the Senate is that out of the 35 seats that are up
00:27:52for election, we can practically say that we have 7
00:27:55important competitive seats where the difference and competition
00:27:59between the two candidates is very close.
00:28:09which are important and we should monitor them on election day to see
00:28:13which party will win these states and be able to gain the majority.
00:28:17We also had the two states of Georgia and North Carolina,
00:28:20but the Democrats have distanced themselves so much that they are practically
00:28:24not considered competitive states. The state of Kansas has also recently
00:28:28been added to these competitive states because
00:28:31the gap that the Democratic candidate there, Mr.
00:28:35Adam Hamilton, has opened up against the current senator of this state, Mr. Roger Marshall,
00:28:39has managed to get 2.5% ahead in the average of polls.
00:28:43The discussion about polls shows itself here.
00:28:46In the state of Kansas, we had a Washington Post poll
00:28:50that showed Mr. Hamilton 10% ahead in this state.
00:28:53The CNN poll was 3%. This shows us that the
00:28:57CNN poll is more accurate. That 3% is within the margin
00:29:01of error of the polls, but 10% is really
00:29:04unexpected. That is, if the Democrats are really 10% ahead
00:29:07in a conservative and Republican state like Kansas,
00:29:11it means that they are in a very good situation
00:29:14and should even get, for example, 54 or 55 seats.
00:29:17But probably the Washington Post poll
00:29:20has a high margin of error,
00:29:24and again, in the estimate and average
00:29:27of polls, the Democrat is currently ahead, but because it's 2.5%,
00:29:31there is a possibility that Republicans will win Kansas. This
00:29:35is the total of competitive Senate states. Each state has two
00:29:38Senate representatives, right? It has senators. According to its population,
00:29:42it has a number of representatives in the House of Representatives. The total number of representatives is 435.
00:29:46Senators are 50 states, each with two, exactly 100. This is another
00:29:50state regardless of the state's population, it has two Senate
00:29:53seats to send to the thing.
00:29:56And I want to say it this
00:29:59way, for example, it's possible that one Democrat goes and one
00:30:03Republican goes from the state, two of them like this. Well, in this
00:30:06year's elections, we don't have any state that has
00:30:10two simultaneous elections this year. These are their
00:30:13midterm elections. Yes, but we do have states where, yes, those
00:30:17states that have close competitions are usually swing states.
00:30:21They usually have both a Democratic and a Republican senator. For example,
00:30:24the state of Pennsylvania currently has one Democratic senator
00:30:28and one Republican senator. Well, so if I understood correctly, because now out of 100,
00:30:3235 Senate seats are now up for election,
00:30:36and 6 states are swing states, then 12 out of 35 are still
00:30:40undecided. Am I right? These 12 out of 35 are decisive. Almost 10-11
00:30:43of these 35, we can say that their situation is not clear. They
00:30:47call it a toss-up in America. A toss-up is like
00:30:50flipping a coin, heads or tails. Meaning it's so fifty-fifty,
00:30:53the polls are so close that you can't say whether the Republican candidate
00:30:57or the Democrat will win. Now, almost 10-11 states are like this.