Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00Yes, uh, some questions that
00:00:03were conveyed online.
00:00:07The first question
00:00:11is government consumption
00:00:14reached
00:00:168.95%
00:00:18year-on-year in Q3 of 2026.
00:00:21What specific
00:00:25programs
00:00:29developments and the triggered high government spending this quarter? So,
00:00:31for Q3, if we look at
00:00:34the government consumption component, government spending
00:00:38is quite high,
00:00:408.95%,
00:00:43mainly driven by an increase
00:00:45in spending, salaries, and allowances for ASN,
00:00:49especially P3K.
00:00:52The number of P3K in Q3 2026
00:00:56increased significantly
00:00:58compared to Q3 2025.
00:01:03real consumer side, So, there was an additional
00:01:05P3K for this year, because as I recall,
00:01:09the addition was at the end of
00:01:122025, so now it has increased a lot.
00:01:16Then, the second is still the
00:01:20impact of the free nutritious
00:01:23meal program, which also experienced acceleration if we
00:01:26compare it with the same period
00:01:30in Q3 2025.
00:01:322025
00:01:35It might be necessary to inform all of you
00:01:38that the free meal program
00:01:40is
00:01:43disbursed in the form of goods to
00:01:47the community and is recorded as
00:01:50part of government consumption
00:01:53expenditure. So, MBG in the form of food
00:01:56delivered to the community is part of government
00:02:00expenditure and is recorded in the GDP from the expenditure
00:02:04side, so the acceleration of this program also
00:02:07contributes
00:02:09Meanwhile, significantly to the growth of government consumption
00:02:13in Q3 2026.
00:02:16Now, the
00:02:20second, the second question is quarterly,
00:02:23or Q-to-Q economic
00:02:26growth in Q3 2026 was only
00:02:301.59%.
00:02:34Is this an early sign of economic
00:02:37weakening in the second half of this year? So,
00:02:41if we look at the Q3 achievement
00:02:44on a Q-to-Q
00:02:47ICLS, which basis, it does show a slowdown in economic growth momentum, but
00:02:49it is not strong enough to conclude that there is
00:02:54is more than 3,000 an economic slowdown. From the Q-to-Q side, its growth
00:02:58is lower compared to Q2. Indeed, 2026
00:03:02is also indeed indicates that economic activity
00:03:05is no longer as strong as the previous quarter, but
00:03:09it still grew compared to Q2. This means
00:03:12that when Q2 grew more, and then
00:03:16Q3 still grew Q-to-Q, it means the economy
00:03:19continues to move better,
00:03:22more than the previous Q2. We also
00:03:26need to consider seasonal
00:03:30factors, because these seasonal patterns
00:03:33also, especially the high Q2 base effect
00:03:36due to several celebrations,
00:03:40in this quarter, even though like Eid al-Fitr and school holidays in Q2.
00:03:43libur sekolah di triwulan 2
00:03:46Meanwhile, year-on-year
00:03:50in Q3, it increased from 5.29 to
00:03:55the economic growth 5.47, even higher than
00:03:58Q3 last year, which was 5.04. This means that overall,
00:04:02annually,
00:04:04the economic capacity still shows
00:04:08expansion and has not shown any real
00:04:11weakness. Then,
00:04:15the question online,
00:04:18online,
00:04:21sorry, the processing industry
00:04:24is still the largest contributor and source of growth.
00:04:281.20% amidst
00:04:32the issue of deindustrialization,
00:04:35which subsector actually supports our manufacturing
00:04:39the most? The subsector that
00:04:42most supports the manufacturing industry is the
00:04:45food and beverage industry with a growth source
00:04:49of approximately 0.50%.
00:04:52This subsector has consistently continued
00:04:56to be a source of Indonesia's growth, a source of
00:05:00manufacturing growth in Indonesia. In addition,
00:05:04the next subsector is the chemical,
00:05:07pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industry with a growth source
00:05:10of 0.16%, and also followed by
00:05:14the subsector or basic
00:05:17metal industry with a growth source
00:05:20of 0.14%. So, the breakdown
00:05:23earlier, the 1.2% growth source
00:05:27for the processing industry
00:05:30got 0.5 from the food
00:05:33and beverage industry, then 0.16
00:05:37from the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional
00:05:40medicine industries, and 0.14
00:05:43from the basic metal industry. So, overall,
00:05:46about 0.8 of
00:05:49the 1.20
00:05:51industry is contributed by these three
00:05:54subsectors. Then, ladies and gentlemen,
00:05:58semua
00:06:01regarding
00:06:04the open unemployment
00:06:07rate, TPT in August
00:06:102026 decreased to
00:06:134.75%
00:06:15compared to August last year. However,
00:06:19the public often questions why the unemployment rate in
00:06:23August is usually always higher compared to the
00:06:27February or May releases in the same
00:06:30year. How does BPS explain
00:06:34this phenomenon?
00:06:37Ladies and gentlemen, there is a seasonal influence,
00:06:41where in August, usually,
00:06:44there are many new job
00:06:48seekers from those who have just completed
00:06:51their education, as an additional
00:06:54supply to the workforce. So, usually, graduates
00:06:56of both secondary education and
00:07:00higher education usually graduate in the middle
00:07:04of the year, around June or July. So, when
00:07:07they graduate, they become a supply to
00:07:11our labor market. Therefore, in August,
00:07:15usually, the labor supply,
00:07:18the workforce supply, increases. This can
00:07:21cause an increase in TPT in
00:07:24August 2026 compared to February
00:07:28and May 2026.
00:07:31In addition, in February and May,
00:07:34there are planting and harvesting seasons, which cause
00:07:38an increase in the number of people working, especially
00:07:41in the agricultural sector, in February-May
00:07:452026 compared to August
00:07:472026. The
00:07:51second
00:07:53is the unemployment rate. TPT decreased
00:07:56to
00:07:584.75%.
00:08:00However, are the jobs created of good quality, or
00:08:04are we just creating informal
00:08:08workers? Indeed, TPT has decreased, but the percentage
00:08:12of informal workers has increased from
00:08:1657.80% in August
00:08:202025 to
00:08:2457.93% in August
00:08:272026. In addition, there was
00:08:31an increase in the underemployment rate, or those
00:08:34who work less than 35
00:08:38hours per week and are still looking
00:08:41for work, from 7.91%
00:08:44in August
00:08:482025 to 8.68% in
00:08:51August
00:08:522026.
00:08:55The next question online
00:08:58is related to the HDI issue. Our
00:09:02life expectancy increased to
00:09:0574.68
00:09:07years. What health policies had the
00:09:10most direct impact on the increase
00:09:14in life expectancy for Indonesian citizens in
00:09:172026? So, the UHH in
00:09:212026 indeed became
00:09:2474.68 years, mainly
00:09:27due to programs in the
00:09:30health sector,
00:09:34such as free health check-up programs,
00:09:38then consortium policies,
00:09:42the first 100-day
00:09:45consortium, then the construction
00:09:48of health facilities focused on early
00:09:52disease detection, stunting prevention, and more
00:09:55equitable basic health services.
00:09:57The better the access to health care and
00:10:01the quality of health services, the risk of
00:10:05premature death, infant and under-five mortality
00:10:08decreases. So, indeed, the most important factor
00:10:11when we want to increase life expectancy
00:10:15is how we
00:10:18handle or reduce
00:10:21infant and under-five mortality rates. So, health
00:10:25programs related to
00:10:28handling infant and under-five mortality
00:10:31will certainly have a big impact on
00:10:34life expectancy. Then, ladies and gentlemen,
00:10:37semua,
00:10:40there is a question from Mr.
00:10:44Adin from Berita 1 via
00:10:46Zoom,
00:10:49to clarify how the method
00:10:52for calculating the working population works.
00:10:55Is
00:10:57someone who works at least 1 hour a week
00:11:01already categorized as a working
00:11:03person? That's the first one. Then,
00:11:07the second question:
00:11:10if there is a worker who is laid
00:11:13off,
00:11:16wait
00:11:21it disappeared from the screen, wait a moment.
00:11:26Sorry, sorry.
00:11:37If there is a worker who is laid
00:11:39off
00:11:42from a company and then switches to being an
00:11:45informal worker or works fewer hours,
00:11:48is that person still
00:11:51counted as a working person?
00:11:55How does BPS view the changes in the condition
00:11:59and quality
00:12:00of that
00:12:08job? So, it's true, the first one was about
00:12:11the concept of the working population.
00:12:15Someone who performs work
00:12:19to earn or help earn
00:12:22income.
00:12:25A minimum of 1 hour a week is categorized
00:12:29as a working person. You also mentioned
00:12:32it, so if someone works at
00:12:35least 1 hour a week, this concept also applies
00:12:39internationally. The basic concept
00:12:42from ILO is 1 hour a week of
00:12:46work, then they fall into the category of
00:12:49working people to earn or
00:12:52help earn income.
00:12:55A minimum of 1 hour. So, the concept is still
00:12:58the same. We refer to a concept
00:13:02that refers to international standard
00:13:05international conference of labor, uh, what is
00:13:09it, statistician
00:13:12is organized by ILO. That concept
00:13:16is an international standard that
00:13:19has been adopted by BPS since the
00:13:22beginning of Sakernas.
00:13:25And the 1-hour concept is still
00:13:29used by ILO until now,
00:13:32and this also answers
00:13:35the question from Ms. Risa from
00:13:38Bloomberg. The second one is, if there
00:13:42was a worker who was laid
00:13:45off from a company and then switched to being
00:13:48informal or working fewer hours, is that
00:13:52person still counted as a working
00:13:55person? How does BPS view the changes in
00:13:58the condition and quality of that job?
00:14:02In labor data,
00:14:05workers who are laid off from a company
00:14:09and then switch to being informal or working fewer
00:14:12hours, as long as they meet the
00:14:15minimum limit of 1 hour
00:14:18of work per week, they are
00:14:21still counted as workers.
00:14:25Now, as a result of the layoff,
00:14:28the worker remains in the worker group,
00:14:32but experiences a change from originally working in a
00:14:35formal sector company, then
00:14:39switching to the informal sector, or previously
00:14:42being a full-time worker,
00:14:4635 hours or more, they
00:14:49could then change to being a part-time
00:14:53worker or underemployed.
00:14:55pengangguran,
00:14:58Then from Ms. Tasha
00:15:01from Tempo, household consumption is still
00:15:04the largest contributor, even though the
00:15:08consumer confidence index continued
00:15:12to weaken in Q3. How does BPS
00:15:15explain this? The consumer
00:15:19confidence index in Q3 2026
00:15:22was still at an optimistic
00:15:26level,
00:15:27which is 117.8.
00:15:31This optimism occurred both
00:15:34in the economic consumption index
00:15:37of 108.27
00:15:40currently, and in the consumer
00:15:43expectations
00:15:44index of 127.33,
00:15:48which is part of the consumer
00:15:50confidence index.
00:15:53These two things show
00:15:56that there is optimism that encourages household
00:15:59consumption. Structurally, households
00:16:03that have the largest share in GDP
00:16:07expenditure will give the largest SOG.
00:16:10So, the consumer confidence index in
00:16:13Q3 is still in the optimistic zone,
00:16:17so 117. Its components were
00:16:20economic conditions at 108.27 and consumer expectations
00:16:24at 127.33.
00:16:28The growth figure, second, the growth figure
00:16:31of 5.47% far exceeded projections from
00:16:35several institutions. Even a number of
00:16:38institutions predicted that the Q3 economy would slow
00:16:42down, while BPS data showed the economy
00:16:45growing faster than Q2. How does
00:16:49BPS explain this
00:16:52matter? So, BPS
00:16:55calculates economic growth based on
00:16:59statistical methodology that is already
00:17:02internationally standardized. We
00:17:05use a manual called the System of
00:17:09National Accounts 2008,
00:17:12and we also use a manual called
00:17:16Quarterly National Accounts by
00:17:19utilizing various actual data
00:17:22sources, both those conducted by
00:17:25BPS internally and recordings
00:17:29from external data administration outside
00:17:32BPS from various ministries
00:17:36and institutions. State-owned enterprises,
00:17:39we also utilize big data and other
00:17:43relevant data sources.
00:17:47projections made by a number
00:17:49of research
00:17:52institutions, we don't know exactly, but perhaps
00:17:55that research uses a modeling and
00:17:59estimation approach based on assumptions
00:18:03and available indicators. Therefore,
00:18:05it could be due to
00:18:09the difference in figures that we at BPS
00:18:12use data that we have already
00:18:15obtained in very large
00:18:19quantities for one quarter. In fact,
00:18:23the data used for calculating the type of
00:18:26data used for calculating GDP nationally
00:18:32types of data used, and we use
00:18:36a manual that
00:18:39applicable worldwide and used by
00:18:43NSOs worldwide, namely National
00:18:45Statistical Office.
00:18:48Then, a question from Ms. Anisha
00:18:51from Detik.com, this
00:18:53is also via Zoom.
00:18:57The first question: Indonesia's economic
00:19:00growth figure is quite good.
00:19:03On the other hand, the perception
00:19:06still arises that growth have not
00:19:09been felt equally by the public.
00:19:13How does BPS portray this phenomenon through statistical
00:19:16indicators? Is the economic growth
00:19:19that has occurred reflected in the increase in
00:19:23real purchasing power, real income, purchasing power,
00:19:26and public welfare, especially for low-income
00:19:29groups? So,
00:19:32presented in this release is
00:19:35macroeconomic
00:19:37economic growth. If we want to look
00:19:41in more detail at the micro-level,
00:19:44especially regarding purchasing power for certain
00:19:48groups, especially low-income groups,
00:19:51further study is needed. So, the GDP was
00:19:55macroeconomic, but if we want more
00:19:59detail on whether purchasing power and
00:20:02so on are felt by certain groups,
00:20:05we certainly need more in-depth study to be
00:20:09able to know for sure. But this
00:20:12time, we are indeed presenting macroeconomic
00:20:15growth data. The second question from Ms.
00:20:19Anisa: economic growth often goes hand in hand with
00:20:22rising prices of goods and services.
00:20:26In such conditions, the public can experience
00:20:30purchasing power pressure even though the economy
00:20:33grows in aggregate. How does BPS
00:20:36explain the relationship between GDP
00:20:39growth calculation and inflation
00:20:42measurement? To what extent do these
00:20:45indicators accurately describe the real conditions faced by
00:20:50households, especially low-income
00:20:53groups? Well, Ms. Nisa from
00:20:56Detik, economic growth and inflation are
00:20:59indeed two indicators that complement
00:21:02each other in
00:21:04describing economic conditions. GDP measures
00:21:08the growth of economic activity in
00:21:11real terms by removing price
00:21:14effects, while inflation measures price
00:21:19prices of goods and services consumed
00:21:22by the public. The economic growth
00:21:26created varies across sectors and
00:21:29from the expenditure side, also varies
00:21:32in terms of which one
00:21:35has a different
00:21:36impact.
00:21:40Inflation from the producer side, whose sector
00:21:44is largely
00:21:46from the middleman wholesaler or large
00:21:50trader, and on the
00:21:53the inflation felt by low-income groups,
00:21:56so we also need to
00:21:59not only use these two indicators,
00:22:02but also need
00:22:06to read it along with other
00:22:09indicators. In GDP calculation,
00:22:12we actually
00:22:14calculate inflation at the producer level. So,
00:22:18at the producer
00:22:20level, there is inflation and also
00:22:24inflation at the consumer level,
00:22:27which is usually
00:22:30released. Then, from
00:22:33Mr. Stefano earlier,
00:22:36on slide 14, of all expenditure
00:22:40items, the GDP expenditure component
00:22:43experienced a decrease in growth
00:22:46source, except for other items.
00:22:50What are those other items? In
00:22:53the previous SOG slide,
00:22:56the other expenditure component
00:22:59is the expenditure component of NPISH
00:23:02and change in inventories.
00:23:05These components still contributed positively
00:23:09to economic growth. So, if we break down
00:23:12the 5.47%,
00:23:16from household consumption it was
00:23:192.62%, as stated in the
00:23:23slide. Then, gross
00:23:26fixed capital formation was 1.91%,
00:23:29government consumption was 0.62%,
00:23:33exports were 1.16%,
00:23:36but there was an SOG of imports
00:23:39that reduced it by 1.44%.
00:23:42So, if exports minus imports, the
00:23:46net SOG from net exports was
00:23:50only minus 0.28%. The other
00:23:53items I mentioned were
00:23:55the SOG from nonprofit institution
00:23:59consumption, 0.06%,
00:24:02and the SOG from change
00:24:05in inventories,
00:24:060.47%.
00:24:10The second question is about
00:24:13forest and land fires becoming
00:24:17worse. Does BPS record the economic
00:24:20impact on economic growth
00:24:23from the production side, from the
00:24:26business sector? The impact of forest
00:24:30and land fires on economic growth
00:24:34can be directly observed through the
00:24:38growth of the forestry subsector.
00:24:41In Q3, this
00:24:44subsector contracted by 2.52%, a
00:24:48significant drop compared
00:24:50to Q2, which grew by 6%.
00:24:54So, in Q2 2026, it grew
00:24:57by about 6.02%. In Q3,
00:25:00its growth
00:25:02was negative (2.52%) for the forestry
00:25:06subsector, which is part of
00:25:09the agricultural sector. Forest and land
00:25:12fires also had an impact on
00:25:14the decline in
00:25:17some economic activities, especially in the
00:25:20affected provinces. The economic
00:25:23impact can be
00:25:25seen from
00:25:29the slowdown in those provinces, but
00:25:32nationally, the impact is not very
00:25:36visible. Some provinces
00:25:39that were affected, so to speak,
00:25:41if we look at their growth,
00:25:45it was somewhat stunted, especially
00:25:48in Kalimantan, like Central Kalimantan. Their
00:25:52growth was somewhat affected. There were
00:25:55some sectors there whose growth was
00:25:59very small compared to last year.
00:26:03That's probably the general
00:26:06impact of forest and land
00:26:08fires. Besides that,
00:26:11the impact of forest and
00:26:15land fires and other disasters was
00:26:18marked by the strengthening of NPISH
00:26:22growth. So, nonprofit institutions year-on-year
00:26:25in Q3 were mainly driven by
00:26:29the massive activities of social and
00:26:32humanitarian organizations in responding to
00:26:36various natural disasters such as the
00:26:40surge in forest and land fires,
00:26:43then there were also the Flores
00:26:46earthquake and Solok floods.
00:26:49So, NPISH
00:26:51grew by 5.02%
00:26:55year-on-year in Q3, higher
00:26:58than last year.
00:27:01Then from Ms. Barrisa from
00:27:04Bloomberg, TPT was informed to
00:27:08have dropped. How exactly is it calculated,
00:27:11for example, work in the
00:27:14gig economy or working only a
00:27:17few hours a week, is it
00:27:20counted as TPT? That was actually
00:27:24answered earlier about
00:27:26the calculation method.
00:27:30Then from Kris from
00:27:34Suara, regarding expenditure
00:27:37sources, even though the investment
00:27:41component's growth decreased from
00:27:456.87 to So, in Q3
00:27:47of this year, 2021 for example,
00:27:50PMTB experienced a slowdown, but its contribution
00:27:54was 30%. This means that although
00:27:57PMTB activity, the formation of fixed capital, experienced
00:28:00a decline. So the slowdown means it's not
00:28:04a contraction, it's a slowdown, but structurally
00:28:07PMTB still contributes more than 30%, which means
00:28:11we must distinguish between decline
00:28:14and slowdown, so if a decline is
00:28:17characterized by a negative value, negative growth or
00:28:21contraction, but if it's a slowdown, it still
00:28:24grows, but the magnitude of growth could be
00:28:28smaller compared to the previous period.
00:28:32Yes, that's from then
00:28:35from massurya from Bisnis Indonesia earlier,
00:28:38yes, the expenditure component of household expenditure contributed
00:28:4151.97%
00:28:4251,97%
00:28:45and experienced a decline compared to the previous
00:28:48quarter, can you explain the reason for the decline
00:28:52and when it was the lowest since?
00:28:55So the share of PKRT in GDP
00:28:58shows the share of consumption value which is.
00:29:02In effect, it was recorded that the lowest distribution value
00:29:06was 30 in Q3
00:29:09of 2022, which only reached
00:29:1250.62%.
00:29:16So if
00:29:18it experienced a decline in the previous quarter, it could be because
00:29:22PKRT has
00:29:25certain seasonal patterns, for example, in the second quarter
00:29:28yesterday, there were many holidays. School holidays,
00:29:31then religious celebrations
00:29:35and so on, that also encouraged
00:29:39consumption, so
00:29:42it decreased, the share is still quite high,
00:29:46then from Dofasyn Business, yes, earlier
00:29:50TPT decreased, is it because
00:29:52there is a government program like
00:29:56intern hub, paid intern hub
00:29:59including working. Yes, well,
00:30:03so conceptually, the intern hub program
00:30:06will contribute to the total
00:30:10working population, the intern hub program
00:30:13of the Ministry of Manpower absorbed around 46,000 workers
00:30:17in the first batch in August
00:30:202026, while TPT experienced
00:30:24a decrease compared to August 2025
00:30:28because there was still absorption of labor.
00:30:311.4 million people, so
00:30:34the increase in labor in other sectors was quite high,
00:30:37especially agriculture and construction,
00:30:40well, conceptually of course, the intern hub
00:30:43program will reduce unemployment, but how much
00:30:47it will reduce unemployment,
00:30:50of course, we look at the number of people
00:30:53participating in the intern hub, if it's more,
00:30:57then the impact will be greater.