Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
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00:02:09about current events in Serbia as well as possible scenarios for forming government in
00:02:13Bosnia and Herzegovina and expectations from the next
00:02:15four-year mandate and some other topics. Next,
00:02:19we talk with political analyst Srećko Latalo. Good day to you and welcome.
00:02:22Good day. Glad to hear from you. I would like to follow up on what
00:02:26we were just watching. So Nenad Nešić,
00:02:29a colleague from Belgrade, reported on the events of the Alta Bank
00:02:32case. Do you expect that the Alta Bank
00:02:36case will spill over to Bosnia and Herzegovina, given that that bank cooperated with
00:02:40the Government of Republika Srpska and accredited some
00:02:43quite expensive projects
00:02:47near Jahorina? You see, this
00:02:50is what was expected,
00:02:53what was expected,
00:02:56this de facto immediately after the election night,
00:03:00that these information about what all was happening
00:03:04and what was being done by the authorities in
00:03:08Serbia
00:03:11will slowly start to come out
00:03:14into the public, because it is obvious that this system
00:03:18is faltering, although again I must emphasize that all of this that is
00:03:22happening now is still being done by
00:03:25the old structures of power, so these are not now
00:03:29some new powers, it is not a student list, but these are
00:03:33old powers, this
00:03:37way, so it is very possible that
00:03:40part of those institutions are now trying
00:03:43to do what should have been done long ago, perhaps because
00:03:47they were waiting for the moment, perhaps because
00:03:50they are trying to fight for a place in that new
00:03:54system that is being prepared,
00:03:57but to be honest, I expect... many more
00:04:01similar activities
00:04:04that we will yet see and I think much bigger than what is
00:04:08being talked about now regarding Alta Bank, not
00:04:11only regarding what the government
00:04:15in Serbia did, but also what they did
00:04:18and connected
00:04:21people from the government of Republika Srpska,
00:04:24because, as is known, they also had
00:04:28accounts in that bank
00:04:32and projects and loans and so on,
00:04:35there are all sorts of stories, but it's not right to talk
00:04:39without any, let's say, concrete
00:04:42confirmations of details, so
00:04:45maybe it's better to leave that for another day. Yes, for
00:04:49many in the world, the victory of the student list in Serbia was a surprise,
00:04:53and we saw those different reactions,
00:04:56we saw Milorad Dodik who participated in the autumn campaign.
00:05:00He sent different messages during that campaign, then on
00:05:04election night, after leaving the SNS election headquarters,
00:05:08he congratulated the student list. Milorad Dodik had similar
00:05:11endeavors before, but do you expect that
00:05:15his daring move will succeed, that he will manage
00:05:18to open doors somewhere with the future government in
00:05:21Serbia, that he will continue to be someone
00:05:24who will be viewed as
00:05:28an interlocutor and partner? Well,
00:05:30you see, it is impossible at this moment
00:05:34to answer that question or any similar question
00:05:37because the dismantling
00:05:40of Aleksandar Vučić's government
00:05:44has de facto not even begun yet. There are still
00:05:48many things that need to be done procedurally and
00:05:52first, the election results need to be confirmed, a
00:05:55new parliament needs to be convened, and then a new government needs to be formed. Only
00:05:59then, when a new government is formed, which will probably not be until
00:06:03December, maybe even January, the question
00:06:06is whether Vučić's party will try
00:06:10to slow it down, block it, stop
00:06:13it, and so on. So only when a new government is formed can we
00:06:17actually see who will be in that government
00:06:20and what they will
00:06:24do, first and foremost related to Serbia, and therefore
00:06:27related to Republika Srpska. However, what
00:06:30I think is evident from these first not only
00:06:34statements but also actions of
00:06:38student lists, their political representatives, but also those
00:06:42institutions of power in Serbia that seem to be waking up now
00:06:45and starting to do something they should have done long ago, it seems
00:06:48quite evident that
00:06:51Mr. Dodik and his government and his
00:06:55tycoons and all the people who were involved
00:06:59ovaj
00:07:02scrutiny very soon, because as is known,
00:07:05Mr. Dodik personally, his family
00:07:09have a lot of property, as far as I hear, some
00:07:12in Serbia, so I think
00:07:16we will, let's say, see that in some upcoming
00:07:19episodes. Yes, that student list structure is quite
00:07:22heterogeneous and sent different messages
00:07:26regarding the region, meaning different actors from
00:07:30the student list sent different messages, some of them
00:07:33scared voters from Republika Srpska who have dual
00:07:37citizenship. But when everything is considered, at least these
00:07:40first messages
00:07:42after the elections, what consequences can the election results in Serbia
00:07:46have on political relations in the region and here on
00:07:49relations between Serbia and Bosnia
00:07:53and Herzegovina specifically in the coming period? Well, you see, in my opinion, one should
00:07:56not be naive or hasty with any
00:07:59analyses. I don't perceive this
00:08:03as a victory of good over evil,
00:08:06but simply as the beginning of a process
00:08:10that, God willing,
00:08:13will lead to some democratization of
00:08:16Serbia, normalization, better functioning of their
00:08:19government institutions. If and
00:08:23when that happens, it will certainly have a great
00:08:27impact on the rest of the region, because Serbia is still the largest
00:08:31country, both politically and economically the strongest,
00:08:35so it will certainly
00:08:38have an impact on the situation in Bosnia and
00:08:41Herzegovina, primarily in Republika Srpska, but
00:08:45also on relations
00:08:47between the so-called political Sarajevo and Belgrade.
00:08:50But it must also be said that it will largely
00:08:54depend on our politicians, and I
00:08:57sincerely hope that they will recognize
00:09:01the opportunity that these election results provide
00:09:04them. On the other hand, I think it is also very
00:09:08important to say that these election results...
00:09:13the defeat of Vučić, who completely
00:09:16controlled the political scene, the media
00:09:20scene, the economic scene in Serbia,
00:09:23sends a very, very serious
00:09:26warning, I think to all
00:09:29politicians in the entire region, because let's
00:09:33be clear, Serbia, with
00:09:36Vučić in power, was de
00:09:39facto an autocracy.
00:09:43Let's be clear, Bosnia and Herzegovina is not much
00:09:46different, just a little more complicated, because we have three
00:09:50autocracies in combination,
00:09:53but what is one message that really resonated with me and which I think is
00:09:56very, very important, perhaps the most important of all at this
00:10:00moment for the beginning of this
00:10:04process, it was that message, that
00:10:07conclusion of some of the political representatives of the student
00:10:10list, that
00:10:13Vučić did not defend that, that is, that Serbia was not
00:10:17threatened by external enemies, but primarily
00:10:19by internal ones. I think that absolutely
00:10:23the same statement applies
00:10:27to Bosnia and Herzegovina and probably to the rest of the Balkans. From your
00:10:30answer, I have two additional questions.
00:10:34First, it concerns how, as a long-time political
00:10:37analyst, you explain that a group that actually
00:10:41emerged from student unrest
00:10:44managed to defeat a government that ruled for 14 years
00:10:48the way it ruled, and you say autocratically, which had
00:10:51all levers in its hands, control of the media,
00:10:55control of money, control
00:10:57of the police, how do you explain that? Well, you see,
00:11:01there are several explanations, that is,
00:11:04it is probably most realistic,
00:11:07most realistic, some combination of those solutions,
00:11:11from retrograde Mercury to
00:11:14the folk proverb, "the pitcher goes to the well
00:11:17until it breaks," meaning everything sooner or
00:11:21later comes to an end,
00:11:24so the big question was whether those
00:11:27results would really be as they turned out to be.
00:11:30Here, also, let's say, these
00:11:34elections in Serbia sent a message primarily, for example,
00:11:37to voters and citizens of Bosnia and
00:11:41Herzegovina, which is that the victory
00:11:44of the student list, that is, a political or
00:11:48the beginning of a political
00:11:51change, is the result of a very high turnout.
00:11:55And what my colleagues, for example, told me before those
00:11:58elections is
00:12:00that, in essence, the elections would be decided by turnout, and
00:12:04they told me that if the turnout was over 60
00:12:08to 65%, Vučić would surely lose, up to about
00:12:1260%, the results would be close,
00:12:14and I think that is
00:12:18precisely that, again, a conclusion
00:12:21that is important and a message that is very important for everyone.
00:12:25us, if we want change,
00:12:28change is possible, no matter how impossible it may seem to
00:12:32us at this moment, but sooner or
00:12:35later everything changes,
00:12:38but for something to change, people must
00:12:41become active. My second question is precisely on that topic, it concerns
00:12:45the spillover of this unrest
00:12:48into the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We know that during that pre-election campaign in
00:12:52Serbia, in Banja Luka, it was not allowed for students from
00:12:55Serbia to come and present that, nor for professors to actually give lectures,
00:12:59and we know what happened to those students, cyclists who set out to
00:13:03enter Bosnia and Herzegovina, but we had
00:13:05on that election night not only young people,
00:13:09but also other citizens of Banja Luka in the streets, a clear
00:13:12message, one of them was, "Mile, you are
00:13:15next." Is there a possibility, given that we
00:13:19have finished the election process, that we will wait two years for the next local elections,
00:13:23and four years for general elections. That this dissatisfaction
00:13:26will spread to Bosnia and Herzegovina, or due to the fact that our
00:13:30elections are far away and that we have such a system as we have, we cannot
00:13:34experience something similar? Well,
00:13:36you see, on the one hand, as I
00:13:40said, the constitutional
00:13:43or administrative structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina
00:13:46makes the possibility of such
00:13:49processes a little more difficult, perhaps a little
00:13:52more complicated, because it makes it so.
00:13:55Yes, we are de facto a fragmented
00:13:57society that functions in
00:14:01three parallel universes
00:14:04of ethno-politics. It is perhaps difficult
00:14:07to expect all the cards to align at the same
00:14:11time in all three ethno-political universes,
00:14:15but on the one hand, it is not impossible.
00:14:17For example, we saw in 2014,
00:14:20then Milorad Dodik recognized
00:14:24the moment when, after the floods,
00:14:27when processes began in the Federation, that he very
00:14:30successfully stopped them
00:14:34from spreading to Republika Srpska. However, on the other
00:14:38hand, I think that precisely in Republika
00:14:41Srpska, specifically, there is a much greater danger of those processes
00:14:44from Serbia spilling over than perhaps in the Federation, so I would
00:14:48perhaps dare to say that it is possible
00:14:52that these processes will now start in Republika Srpska. Before,
00:14:55more strongly, will perhaps the Federation, that is, students in
00:14:59the Federation, catch up with their
00:15:02colleagues from Republika Srpska? I mean, you see, these are stories
00:15:06that have not yet been told, which in principle
00:15:09depend on all of us individually and collectively. Yes, in the end,
00:15:13the students in Serbia did not do it alone, that's right, but I think the
00:15:17key question is whether we, how long
00:15:21will we be satisfied living in a country that is
00:15:25with people who are, in my opinion, wonderful,
00:15:28the vast majority of them, but which, even
00:15:32today, means it has water reductions, where in Republika Srpska,
00:15:36for example, the question is how long
00:15:38their electricity system will be maintained without
00:15:42coal, where both entities are
00:15:45increasingly indebted, and
00:15:49where financial stability depends on new
00:15:52borrowing, which will, I think,
00:15:55very soon, I think, prove to be a problem for Republika Srpska, as they
00:15:59will no longer be able to count on that at least at this moment. So it's a snowball that
00:16:02keeps growing, that's right, so I think that's the key
00:16:06question. And here, Bosnia and Herzegovina, I think in a way,
00:16:09the war that was particularly brutal in
00:16:13Bosnia and Herzegovina has made us here in this country
00:16:17somewhat more resilient
00:16:20to these external or internal adversities. When I say external,
00:16:24I mean within our country, not outside BiH.
00:16:27So
00:16:31what is perhaps at the same time somehow
00:16:34an advantage for us Bosnians and Herzegovinians
00:16:38is that we, well, it's good as long as it doesn't
00:16:41shoot. We have become stubborn, but then
00:16:45perhaps because of that, we avoid the possibility of
00:16:48realistically making this country at least a little
00:16:52better, which I think is absolutely not difficult. And
00:16:55here, very concretely,
00:16:58now, we had our elections, now
00:17:01some new governments need to be formed. By the end of
00:17:05the year, we will lose 300
00:17:08million euros from non-refundable funds of the European
00:17:12Union just because our political representatives who are
00:17:15currently in power were not ready to pass
00:17:19two laws and one decision. I mean, in today's
00:17:22global crisis, even much richer countries
00:17:26will make sure
00:17:30to do what needs to be done so they don't lose
00:17:33380 million euros. Yes,
00:17:36over the weekend, for us, afternoon, we had a meeting of the Security
00:17:40Council of the United Nations. Bosnia and Herzegovina,
00:17:43OHR, Altea mission, were discussed.
00:17:46After hearing those messages, what is your conclusion, does
00:17:50the position of the United States still dominate,
00:17:54which significantly shapes the messages coming
00:17:58from the Security Council? Well, yes, I mean, that's
00:18:02perhaps, let's say, a big slap for the European
00:18:05Union that this America,
00:18:09which realistically has a very
00:18:12chaotic policy, both internal
00:18:15and external, still
00:18:19has, I dare say, a more positive and
00:18:22concrete, much more concrete influence and engagement in
00:18:25Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Balkans than the European
00:18:29Union. I have heard from several sources
00:18:32what is now being written in the media that, for example,
00:18:36a message was sent to Vučić
00:18:39on Sunday afternoon
00:18:42not to embark on those
00:18:46activities that he allegedly planned. All of us who followed
00:18:49those elections in Serbia saw that special
00:18:53purpose units and vehicles were ready
00:18:56and deployed in the city center around the assembly and so on.
00:19:00So a call from Washington,
00:19:04whatever that Washington is today, is
00:19:08obviously still much
00:19:10more important and has a much greater effect
00:19:13in the Balkans
00:19:16than, unfortunately, the European Union.
00:19:20I think something similar is happening here in Bosnia and
00:19:23Herzegovina. We have seen in the past year,
00:19:27and even two years, despite the agreement that
00:19:31Milorad Dodik made with the American administration, because
00:19:35of which he, that is, after which
00:19:39they removed him and his family and their
00:19:41numerous companies from the list of American
00:19:45sanctions, that he still did not go
00:19:48further in that traditional process of
00:19:52initiatives for secession and so on and so forth,
00:19:55which, in my opinion, is perhaps the only
00:19:59potential cause of some more
00:20:03serious, bigger problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina, that is, these
00:20:06unilateral attempts
00:20:10to change either the constitutional
00:20:13order or borders. I think
00:20:17that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in a strange
00:20:21way stable in its instability.
00:20:24We heard messages regarding the OHR. Will
00:20:27the OHR get a new head, or will
00:20:30we watch this agony we have today with the Office
00:20:34of the High Representative? Until someone agrees,
00:20:37and we actually know who should agree,
00:20:41according to my information, that is not even a topic
00:20:44in international circles anymore. What was clearly
00:20:48told to me by my sources, both American and European,
00:20:52is that until these American mid-term
00:20:56elections, which are
00:20:59now in a day or two,
00:21:03or tomorrow, tomorrow,
00:21:05nothing will change, nothing will
00:21:08happen. So everyone is
00:21:11now focused on that, of course the American administration,
00:21:15that is, Democrats and Republicans,
00:21:18and without a clearer stance from America
00:21:22on that issue, Europe, unfortunately, has nothing to
00:21:25do, so I think that question
00:21:29will be resolved or
00:21:32addressed in December at
00:21:34the next Pika meeting, although again,
00:21:37I expect that in December,
00:21:40some concrete new initiatives and so on could already
00:21:44begin, because I think the Americans currently
00:21:48have what they want. And that is full control over
00:21:52the OHR through the deputy, that is, the acting
00:21:56official, and we will see what happens
00:21:59next. Yes, his report was
00:22:02quite merciless towards Milorad Dodik, so the question
00:22:05arises where are the results of Dodik's lobbying in
00:22:09the United States? That is, I think anyone who follows
00:22:12American politics, foreign policy, can clearly see
00:22:16that despite that
00:22:20speech, that numerous
00:22:23Republican and Democratic politicians in
00:22:27America take a very strong stance towards
00:22:29Dodik, that they constantly almost
00:22:33communicate with the White House to
00:22:36warn Trump that in their opinion, those sanctions
00:22:39should not have been lifted. According to my information, Dodik was
00:22:43warned several times by Washington that those
00:22:46sanctions could be reinstated if he
00:22:50again attempts some radical moves. So I think in any
00:22:54case, Dodik is in a not so simple
00:22:58situation, he lost
00:23:01most of his foreign partners
00:23:05from Orban to Vučić, regardless of the fact that he is now going
00:23:09to the Great Maga rally in Florida.
00:23:13Well, listen, I mean, when a person, let's say, enters
00:23:16that process, starts paying
00:23:20American lobbyists to maintain
00:23:23some kind of status with the American
00:23:27administration, then it's hard to get out of that. I mean,
00:23:30everyone likes money, especially when it
00:23:33comes from the budget of Republika Srpska, which the citizens
00:23:37of Republika Srpska pay for. So if
00:23:40they are satisfied and happy that they are paying
00:23:43their leader for his business successes,
00:23:46then why should we complain? Yes, since we've already
00:23:50started with Dodik, he said today that SNSD will not accept
00:23:54a partnership with a political bloc from the Federation that would include
00:23:57the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina. How do
00:24:00you comment on this setting of conditions and
00:24:03how do you think the new government in Bosnia
00:24:07and Herzegovina will be formed in this atmosphere, if at all?
00:24:11Well, I think this was
00:24:14expected. SNSD and HDZ have
00:24:16de facto sent messages immediately after
00:24:20our elections, maybe just not as clear and concrete as
00:24:23Milorad Dodik's message today. But for example, HDZ previously
00:24:27sent messages that it does not want the Democratic Front in power, now Milorad Dodik
00:24:31says he does not want the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina. What does that leave, or
00:24:34what kind of space does that leave for the Party of Democratic Action, which will
00:24:38obviously be part of that coalition? Well,
00:24:42you see, by all accounts, three parties without which it
00:24:45will not be possible, at least at the state level, are SNSD,
00:24:49HDZ, everything else
00:24:53is in question. As we know, I mean, we had
00:24:56situations before where we had different
00:25:00coalitions at different levels.
00:25:03I mean, in the Federation, it will also be very
00:25:07difficult to form a ruling coalition without
00:25:10the SDP. So I think Bakir
00:25:14Izedbegović is facing a very
00:25:17difficult choice. because I think most
00:25:21of these processes point to
00:25:25SDP as a better partner, according to my information,
00:25:28even in some meetings with
00:25:31Western diplomats, it was suggested to him that
00:25:35BSDP would probably be a better and more functional
00:25:39uh partner.
00:25:42However, I think two things: one
00:25:45thing is that the speed
00:25:49of forming the state government will probably again
00:25:52depend on the Americans. According to some
00:25:55information, American representatives are already
00:25:59in communication with all local officials.
00:26:02Especially with the election winners, they have clearly
00:26:05stated that they want a quick formation
00:26:08of government. It is also said that
00:26:12uh one of the reasons is uh the quick
00:26:15adoption of the law on state property, which is
00:26:18necessary for those various investments that
00:26:22American uh American companies, which are in agreement with
00:26:25Dodik, expect or need for
00:26:29starting those investments. Uh
00:26:31however, on the other hand, what I would also like to
00:26:35emphasize is that I mean, after all
00:26:39these years, I really wouldn't even uh analyze
00:26:43whether SDP or the Party for BiH or DF
00:26:46SNSD is better, or not. It's more about the position of the Party of Democratic
00:26:49Action, whose potential partners actually determine
00:26:53with whom it can and cannot work. So,
00:26:57however, what I want to emphasize is that
00:27:00uh... I think all of us, journalists,
00:27:04analysts, uh, and even citizens of Bosnia and
00:27:09who will be in power, not on what that government will do.
00:27:13And in a way, I think that more
00:27:16or less all these major political parties, meaning from
00:27:19SNSD, HDZ, SDS, SDA, SDP, and
00:27:23so on, have unfortunately become very successful
00:27:26in imposing topic,
00:27:30totally avoiding...
00:27:32the question of what and how those governments will de facto function. So,
00:27:36I'm saying all this precisely in the context of these events in
00:27:39Serbia. Honestly, as a citizen, and even as a political
00:27:42analyst who, you know, I've been doing this job for 30 years,
00:27:4630 years, from the beginning of the war until today,
00:27:49I follow all important events in this country. I
00:27:53have to say that as an analyst, as a citizen of this
00:27:56country, I really don't care at all
00:27:59whether it will be SDA, whether it will be SDP, will it? Will it be our
00:28:03party, will it be the Party for BiH or IDF?
00:28:06So, what is important to me is that I have
00:28:10water in Sarajevo, that I have, that
00:28:13my child has a better education, has better prospects for
00:28:17employment, uh, that I don't think about
00:28:21whether we will have electricity, that we don't think about whether that
00:28:24wall on the highway that tilted
00:28:27after a few years of opening that section will collapse, whether it will fall
00:28:31on my head when I pass by there, and so on. So I think
00:28:35we have really let our political
00:28:38representatives have their way, so that
00:28:42they skim the cream off
00:28:45the milk, and give citizens very, very
00:28:48little for their very good salaries. Uh,
00:28:52with that message, we will end this conversation. Thank you very much for being our guest, for analyzing
00:28:56these political events in our country and in the
00:28:59region. Thank you for the invitation, Srećko. The political
00:29:03analyst was with us for the past 25
00:29:05minutes. Stay with us for live today. Here's what awaits us in the continuation
00:29:09of our get-together.
00:29:16We investigate the story of financial ties between Alta Bank, the Government of Republika
00:29:19Srpska, and projects on Jahorina. We are looking for an answer to the question of where the
00:29:23millions of amounts that have been attracting a lot of public attention in recent
00:29:26months ended up.
00:29:29While discussions are taking place in Republika Srpska about responsibility for the election
00:29:32result of the opposition, the Serb Democratic Party is going through one of its deepest
00:29:36internal crises in the last few years. Demands for changes
00:29:40in the party leadership are growing louder, and
00:29:44the opposition bloc, the case of Ljubiša Petrović, and the future of the SDS.
00:29:47About the situation in the oldest party in Republika Srpska,
00:29:50political circumstances and economic challenges, we will debate with a member
00:29:54of the SDS presidency, Nikola
00:29:56Zlojutro.
00:29:58Elections for Congress in the United States of America, the war in Ukraine, political
00:30:02turmoil in Israel, rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, and the increasingly
00:30:06pronounced rivalry between China and the United States mark the current
00:30:09international moment. At the same time, the European Union is trying
00:30:12to strengthen its security and defense capabilities while the world seeks
00:30:16a new phase of geopolitical
00:30:19realignment? All these topics will be analyzed by journalist and foreign policy
00:30:23commentator Milovan
00:30:24Jovanović.
00:30:28And all this announced after
00:30:29the commercials.
00:30:39This can only be 3D,
00:30:42great.
00:30:45Only at Fis, in the home textile departments, look for a blanket
00:30:49for 12.90, bedspreads from
00:30:5214.90, towel 4 marks
00:30:5640. Kitchen apron 6
00:30:59KM.