Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00Republican Party candidates for Trump's party for 2028, for the
00:00:032028 presidential elections. If Trump loses these
00:00:07elections,
00:00:09the vice president or Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State or
00:00:12who? Well, the first thing I would say is that next Wednesday,
00:00:16the Wednesday after the elections, will be the first day of the 2028
00:00:20elections, and soon we will see how the
00:00:24answer to that question begins to emerge. Rubio and Vance are
00:00:28obviously the favorites, and soon we will see their strategies,
00:00:31and to my surprise, Vance seems to be
00:00:34distancing himself more from Trump, not much, but more than
00:00:37Rubio. Rubio is being Trump's silent accomplice,
00:00:41especially in foreign policy. He has been very discreet in
00:00:44domestic politics. He has spent a lot of time physically
00:00:47close to Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if he continued
00:00:50to do so. To compensate, he doesn't have Trump's
00:00:53aggressiveness or Vance's, but perhaps he wants to give the impression that he is
00:00:57more likely to continue with the policies of
00:01:00tariffs and others than Vance. Vance has already
00:01:04made it clear that he doesn't entirely agree with the war with Iran, and
00:01:07he could well start to distance himself in other areas too. That
00:01:11is, if this had happened 20 years ago, neither of
00:01:14the two candidates would have been considered a defector from the incumbent
00:01:18president, but this president is very sensitive, and the
00:01:21MAGA universe is very sensitive, even to the
00:01:25slightest deviation from what Donald Trump wants, and
00:01:29so far we see, we see that Vance deviates a little more than Rubio, and
00:01:32that is probably what we will see, at least during the
00:01:35first few months after the elections, while
00:01:38both try to understand the situation. That
00:01:42is interesting, because the general opinion is the bet that Vance
00:01:45is the MAGA candidate, Trump's movement, and that Rubio
00:01:49is a kind of traditional
00:01:51Republican. That's true, and maybe I'm
00:01:54wrong, but I think the interesting thing is to observe what they say
00:01:57and do now, and what they are
00:02:00doing now is, in my opinion, quite different from the image of Rubio as a kind
00:02:03of country club Republican and Vance as a more
00:02:07combative type. Perhaps those are their personalities, but
00:02:11I expect Rubio to really distance himself from the president, and I
00:02:14don't see it. How do you see the Democrats for the 2028
00:02:18presidential elections, the day after
00:02:21these midterm elections, who
00:02:23will run for president? Well, I think that
00:02:26as of November 4th,
00:02:44integrate society.
00:03:00he is also a moderate Democrat who also has the potential to be a kind of
00:03:03delicate balance in relations
00:03:05So, regardless of with Israel. So I suspect that in the first
00:03:09few weeks after this election on the Democratic side, it will look
00:03:13like a big tent, a big tent of more moderate
00:03:16Democrats who can attract large state audiences and
00:03:20some leftist-type Democrats. Bernie Sanders
00:03:23is too old to run for
00:03:25president.
00:03:30He represents a district in the House of
00:03:33the tension, and we don't Representatives, and we haven't had a member of the House of Representatives who has been president in the United
00:03:37States since the 19th century. So I think
00:03:40someone will realize that the viable and interesting candidates,
00:03:43the potential candidates who are getting a lot of attention, are
00:03:47the more moderate ones. Professor
00:03:50Stuart, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. When we come back, we will continue
00:03:54analyzing what can happen in the crucial midterm
00:03:56elections on Tuesday in the United States. Don't go away. Thank you, we'll be right back.
00:04:18support to change some things in
00:04:36Every night there is the possibility of an
00:04:39unfiltered bombing. They should not
00:04:42treat our young people like that anywhere.
00:04:46Here it is asked, is there freedom of belief in the country? In
00:04:49Spain, it is heard that this type of phenomenon is not
00:04:53what generates change, they are the expression of a change, and
00:04:56it is debated. Its foreign policy will
00:04:595. And to understand what be like this. Conclusions with
00:05:02Fernando from Monday to Friday on
00:05:05CNN.
00:05:09To understand the world, you need to seek the truth.
00:05:13Let's go back to the time when we had to be much more
00:05:16human, that's why we follow the facts, wherever they
00:05:19lead us, no matter how far we have to
00:05:23go, from the internal story, there are new
00:05:26statements from President Donald Trump, to an external
00:05:29perspective, we delve into the data, ready for whatever
00:05:33comes. Lorenzo was shot by an immigration
00:05:36agent, we face the world. Is it
00:05:39legal for a 3-year-old child to appear alone? Find
00:05:43joy in new perspectives and new
00:05:46horizons, every day, no matter where
00:05:50life takes you, we follow what matters
00:05:53to you, we forge a path to truth
00:05:57and understanding of the world.
00:06:25Everyone would say, well, it's gold, for me, my first medal
00:06:29is my bronze medal, so it has a very special
00:06:32sentimental value to be the first of my career. I'm very
00:06:35happy, it was a race that I really enjoyed. Thank God,
00:06:38I got the bronze medal, and with that
00:06:42I had a bonus for the other medals. In my mind
00:06:46it was, I have nothing to lose and everything to gain. I can
00:06:49already get a medal, why not get more? Each one has its
00:06:53value, it was a turning point for this competition, yes I can,
00:06:57I want more and I'm going for more, no, and well, thank God,
00:07:01I got gold, I got silver, and we're going back to Mexico very happy
00:07:04with three medals.
00:07:16I'm Sale Merghi in Tel Aviv, we are
00:07:20CNN.
00:07:26Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing what can happen in Tuesday's elections in
00:07:30the United States and what will happen next, because the day after
00:07:33these midterm elections the race for the 2028
00:07:37presidential elections begins. We have
00:07:39with us Michael McDonald, director of the
00:07:43U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida. Let's go with
00:07:47him. Professor McDonald, thank you for being with us. Well, all the
00:07:50polls indicate that the Democrats will do very well in these
00:07:54midterm elections, but how
00:07:57reliable are these polls? Because in the
00:08:00Brazilian elections last Sunday, they
00:08:03messed up. How accurate are these polls
00:08:06that predict a Democratic victory on Tuesday in the United
00:08:10States? I analyze electoral data, so what I do is
00:08:14consider all factors, not just look at polls.
00:08:17We can deduce from history that
00:08:21Democrats will do quite well in these elections. Generally,
00:08:24in a midterm election, when the president's approval is very
00:08:28low, the other side has a very favorable
00:08:31election year. So we start from there, from what
00:08:34we consider the fundamentals. Then
00:08:37we analyze the polls and see where they stand, and
00:08:41they also seem to suggest that there has been a shift towards more
00:08:44Republican states in terms of where the most closely contested
00:08:48races are. You don't have to believe me, you can analyze
00:08:52the campaigns and see where they send their representatives.
00:08:56For example, President Trump went to Mississippi, a traditionally
00:09:00Republican state, to campaign and try to
00:09:03secure votes for the Republican candidate. That is
00:09:07very unusual and would only happen if the
00:09:10election race had leaned towards the.
00:09:21I also see it in the data, so according to several
00:09:24indicators, the election seems to be leaning towards the
00:09:27Democrats. Were the polls accurate in
00:09:30the 2018 and 2022
00:09:33midterm elections?
00:09:36Well, yes and no. That is, polls have
00:09:40a margin of error. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong,
00:09:44and there is usually a margin of error, but that error, if
00:09:48we analyze the long history of polls, sometimes goes in the
00:09:51direction of the Democrats, sometimes in the direction of the
00:09:54Republicans. In fact, I suspect that right
00:09:57now the polls probably underestimate the
00:10:01Democrats' chances, and I say this because the
00:10:04polls are based on what pollsters believe the 2026
00:10:07electorate will be. So the
00:10:10polls may be favoring the Democrats. Yes,
00:10:14the polls are too optimistic about the
00:10:17Republicans. If we make a comparison with 2022
00:10:21and think about the electorate of that year, we could think that
00:10:25the current electorate in 2026 is similar to that of
00:10:282022, but that was a good year for the
00:10:31Republicans, and this one, according to all the data
00:10:34we can analyze, polls, early voting, the
00:10:38direction the campaigns are taking, seems to be a very
00:10:41good year for the Democrats. So
00:10:44if you think the electorate is going to be like in 2022,
00:10:48you are making a mistake, a mistake that will favor
00:10:51the Republicans, so you are overestimating.
00:10:58From what we know about early voting and mail-in voting,
00:11:02will there be a high turnout in these elections?
00:11:06Yes, definitely. When comparing current turnout with
00:11:10that of 2018 and 2022, I see that it is similar to that of
00:11:142018. This is very significant, as the
00:11:172018 elections recorded the highest
00:11:20turnout in a midterm election since
00:11:231914.
00:11:35Well, I can analyze who is voting right now. It's not
00:11:39about polls, but about early voting data, and
00:11:42we have data by states with party registrations. I can
00:11:46see which party votes more and which less, and I can say that
00:11:50Democrats and independent voters, people who do not have
00:11:53party registration, are voting at much higher
00:11:56levels than in 2022 or 2018,
00:11:59but Republicans are either
00:12:03very similar to those in 2022 or even
00:12:06lower in some states. So we are
00:12:10not seeing as much energy among Republicans as among Democrats
00:12:14and independent voters. And there's another really
00:12:17important point. We have data on race and Hispanic
00:12:21ethnicity in a couple of states, and I can analyze
00:12:24who votes in that category, and we can see that the electorate
00:12:28will be much more diverse than in 2022 or
00:12:312018. African Americans and Latinos
00:12:34in astonishing numbers, two or three
00:12:37times more Latinos voting than in 2022 or
00:12:402018. That's what is happening right now.
00:12:44If this trend continues, the 2026 elections
00:12:48will have the most diverse electorate we have ever
00:12:51had in the history of the United States for a midterm election.
00:12:55Wow, tell me something about the day after these elections. Everyone will
00:12:59be reading results and especially within the Democratic
00:13:03party, seeing how the moderates did and how the
00:13:06socialist Democrats did. What should we
00:13:09look at to see how that will affect the
00:13:13Democratic candidacy in
00:13:162028? Well, I think the big question we have right
00:13:19now is the control of the U.S. House of Representatives. We can see that
00:13:22the Republicans have strategically withdrawn
00:13:26from some House races, which
00:13:28practically guarantees that the
00:13:32Democrats will get a majority. The question
00:13:35is, how wide will that majority be? If it is very
00:13:38narrow, it will make it difficult to govern in the House, but
00:13:42if it is larger, it will give the Democrats some room to maneuver
00:13:45in their management. In the state, we all want
00:13:48to know, as there are many very close Senate races,
00:13:52and Republicans currently have the advantage.
00:13:56Uh-huh. For Democrats to get a majority in the Senate, according to
00:13:59the polls, they need to win some close races in traditionally
00:14:03Republican states, and they could do it. The polls suggest
00:14:06it's possible. In that case, we want to know if Democrats
00:14:09get a majority, and just like in the House of Representatives,
00:14:13we want to know the size of that majority, because even a
00:14:17difference of one or two senators is a very precarious
00:14:21margin. I think that will be
00:14:24what people will focus on next. It is possible that by
00:14:28Wednesday there will be elections that have not yet been decided because of how
00:14:31close they are. Therefore, I would not be surprised if
00:14:35on Wednesday we are waiting for more votes to be counted in some
00:14:38states, which could determine who will control the
00:14:42U.S. Senate. Would you
00:14:44be surprised if President Trump challenged or did not
00:14:48recognize the elections in such and such a state, saying that
00:14:51they were supposedly fraudulent and
00:14:55accept them? What could happen? Well, he has already
00:14:59done so throughout his political career, so I would not be surprised if
00:15:02he continued. And he is already giving signals in that regard. The
00:15:05Department of Justice has already initiated lawsuits, although the one in
00:15:09California has not progressed much, it has had some unfavorable
00:15:11rulings. But in California and Washington, the
00:15:15Department of Justice alleges that the vote of non-citizen
00:15:18people could influence the elections. In
00:15:21Alaska, there is a complaint about a candidate who has the same name
00:15:25as the current Republican senator, and the Department of Justice states that this
00:15:29could generate confusion among voters. But remember that in
00:15:32Alaska that issue already arose about two months ago and
00:15:35reached the Supreme Court, where it was asked whether that candidate, Dan
00:15:39Sullivan, with the same last name Sullivan as the current senator,
00:15:43should or should not appear on the ballot, and the answer from the
00:15:46U.S. Supreme Court was affirmative. So I don't
00:15:50think that lawsuit will prosper, but what it is doing
00:15:53is laying the groundwork for possible legal challenges,
00:15:57and if, for example, control of the Senate depended on the outcome of the
00:16:01elections in Alaska, what will happen to the lawsuit? Perhaps
00:16:05a lost lawsuit, but you could.
00:16:07It's there simply to obstruct the process, to delay as
00:16:11much as possible the achievement of a Democratic majority in the
00:16:14Senate. But do you foresee a scenario in which Trump says I don't recognize
00:16:18any of the results, these elections were fraudulent? Well, his
00:16:22Justice Department is already giving signs that it will present that argument in
00:16:26three states, so I suspect that if Trump could present
00:16:29that argument, he would do it. Would he succeed? I don't
00:16:33think so, unless something really abnormal happened in the elections.
00:16:38But right now nothing like that is happening, and the courts have already
00:16:42ruled against the claims that Trump is currently
00:16:45making. I suspect that the courts will not look favorably on that
00:16:49type of accusation if it goes to court. If
00:16:53Trump loses one of the chambers of Congress or both chambers of
00:16:56Congress, do you think that will make him more moderate,
00:17:00that is, more inclined to dialogue with
00:17:04the opposition or more extremist in the two
00:17:08years he has left in his term? You are asking me to get
00:17:11into Trump's head, and that is something I don't want
00:17:13to do. I have no way of knowing. Professor
00:17:17McDonald, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. When we come back, my
00:17:21To understand the world, elections in the United States and what comes
00:17:25next. Don't go away, we'll be
00:17:27right back.
00:17:33You have 5 minutes, we have five things for you,
00:17:36a podcast with the five most important topics of the day,
00:17:40just ask your smart device, give me the latest
00:17:43news from CNN. Next, I'm going to tell you the five things
00:17:47you need to know at this time. Updated every hour, free
00:17:50of charge or commitment, stay informed from anywhere
00:17:54and at any time. Subscribe to
00:17:57our newsletter, listen to the five things you need to know
00:18:01throughout the day. Tuesday, election night in the United
00:18:04States. What is at stake is very important.
00:18:08Will Democrats win or will Republicans maintain control
00:18:12of Congress? While voters decide, CNN analyzes
00:18:15the most important issues, the key races, the voting
00:18:19data, and what all this means for the country. Join our
00:18:22journalists for a day with live reports, real-time
00:18:26results, in-depth analysis. Election night in the
00:18:29United States, Tuesday on
00:18:31CNN.
00:18:42In that setting of goals and
00:18:44relationships, we must maintain
00:18:48everything that has been achieved. Let's not talk about other chapters such as
00:18:51equality between men and women, such as
00:18:55working conditions, such as the distribution of wealth, which is
00:18:59one of the problems that globalization has had, that is, well,
00:19:02you have to be thinking about a distribution of wealth that
00:19:05works and does not create tensions, that part of
00:19:10have time for that, of recent times is
00:19:14very, very based on that tension produced by the global economy.
00:19:17by the global economy.
00:20:02Would you like to have a healthier life? Join me to
00:20:05discover new tips, the advances in science, and the current
00:20:09methods that can help us improve our mind and
00:20:12body in a consultation with Dr. Huerda, a CNN
00:20:16podcast. Live from Mexico
00:20:20City,
00:20:22a story can change everything. A look at
00:20:26the reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
00:20:29determined to rise. It evolved very quickly, and we never thought
00:20:33it would become a Category
00:20:36is happening, let's go with my colleague Ione Molinares to
00:20:40Washington.
00:20:43The explosion, well, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
00:20:46facade. We hear the protagonists.
00:20:50They mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43,
00:20:54where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this
00:20:57Mexican Air Force plane bound for Romania to
00:21:01have a complete view. We are here as
00:21:04migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
00:21:08stories to know and many perspectives to analyze.
00:21:11Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to Friday
00:21:14on CNN.
00:21:18I'm Juan Carlos López, welcome to Clash of Opinions.
00:21:22Diplomacy, you know well, what is said in private is not what is said in public, well
00:21:26here we know what is said in private.
00:21:29Clash of Opinions, Sunday on CNN. Hello,
00:21:33I'm Annes Openheimer, I invite you to visit my YouTube channel, Openheimer
00:21:36presents. If you register there, we will send you our programs
00:21:40free every week after growing on CNN and my
00:21:43columns and
00:21:44comments.
00:21:48I'm waiting for you, help us.
00:21:55you need to seek the
00:21:58truth. Let's go back to the time when we had to be
00:22:02much more human, that's why we follow the facts
00:22:05wherever they lead us, no matter how far we have to
00:22:09go, from the internal story, there are new
00:22:12statements from President Donald Trump, I take an external
00:22:16perspective, we delve into the data, ready for whatever
00:22:20comes. Lorenzo was shot by an immigration
00:22:22agent, we face the world. Is it
00:22:26legal for a 3-year-old child to appear alone before a judge?
00:22:29Find joy in new perspectives and new
00:22:32horizons, every day, no matter where
00:22:36life takes you, we follow what matters
00:22:40to you, we forge a path to truth
00:22:43and understanding of the
00:22:45world.
00:22:53I am Mexican-British, I have been working as a journalist
00:22:57for 20 years, in Mexico City, in the United
00:23:01States, and now in Miami for CNN. CNN
00:23:04América is a multiplatform program where you will
00:23:08have information from all areas that will allow you to
00:23:12understand the world from whatever angle you are looking at it. In
00:23:16those 3 hours, you will not only have information from a political
00:23:19and economic point of view,
00:23:23but also health, from a women's perspective, but
00:23:26above all, it is a space where we can have conversations, not
00:23:30to polarize, but to
00:23:59polls be right in indicating that the Democrats, that is, the opposition, will win
00:24:03one or perhaps both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm
00:24:06elections in the United States? That is, will
00:24:10these elections mark the beginning of the end of the era of
00:24:14President Trump's enormous power, or on the
00:24:16contrary, will pollsters be wrong, will they mess
00:24:20up as they were wrong in Brazil in the elections last
00:24:23Sunday? Practically all polls in the United
00:24:26States indicate that President Trump is very likely
00:24:30to lose his majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps
00:24:34also in the Senate. Even Fox News
00:24:36polls, the network that usually sympathizes with Trump,
00:24:40predict a Democratic victory. And
00:24:43that would make Trump lose a lot of power, because the
00:24:47Constitution does not allow him to be re-elected. And for
00:24:50the first time in his term, in his second term, at least, he would not control
00:24:54Congress. If Democrats win,
00:24:57they could block Trump's legislative projects, they could
00:25:01investigate corruption allegations against the president and his family, and
00:25:04perhaps they could even get Republican
00:25:08immigration policy and other issues. And if
00:25:11Trump loses these midterm elections and his
00:25:15popularity remains as low as it is now, many
00:25:19legislators from his own Republican Party could distance
00:25:22themselves from him in the remainder of his term because they will be
00:25:26thinking about their own political future leading up to the 2028
00:25:29elections. So the big question is, will
00:25:32the polls be right?
00:25:35Electoral experts tell me that, well, there's always a margin
00:25:39of error, but they are quite, quite confident in their
00:25:42data. First of all, they tell
00:25:46me the polls in the 2018 and
00:25:492022 midterm elections in the United States
00:25:52were quite accurate. Secondly, U.S. electoral
00:25:56history shows that the opposition
00:25:59party usually wins midterm elections. No matter
00:26:03who is in the White House, Republicans or
00:26:05Democrats, the opposition tends to win the
00:26:09midterms. Thirdly, Trump's travel schedule
00:26:13in recent days speaks for itself, and the states
00:26:15where Republicans are putting more money into electoral propaganda
00:26:19also speak for themselves. These are indicators
00:26:22that Trump's own party is on the
00:26:25defensive. President, has
00:26:29been traveling to support candidates.
00:26:32Republicans in states that until now were solidly Republican,
00:26:36like Texas or Kansas, are on the
00:26:39defensive trying to save their positions, instead of being
00:26:43on the offensive, trying to win rival
00:26:47districts, and besides all that, the electoral
00:26:50crime in the United States could hardly be more
00:26:54adverse for Trump. The price of gasoline is higher
00:26:57than at the end of former President Joe Biden's administration.
00:27:01The war between Ukraine and Russia, which Trump had promised
00:27:04to end on the first day of his term, continues
00:27:07its course, and the war against Iran, which Trump said would be an
00:27:11excursion, his words of a few
00:27:14weeks, has been going on for 8 months and shows no sign of
00:27:17ending either. We must also not forget that Trump had promised
00:27:21not to enter new wars, and in recent
00:27:24weeks another element has been added, a new element
00:27:27against Trump and his party: allegations of corruption in the
00:27:31government. According to Fox News,
00:27:34corruption has become, along with the high cost of living, the
00:27:38number one concern of voters.
00:27:41Many people are not comfortable with the fact that while prices
00:27:45are rising and many cannot make ends meet, Trump's fortune has
00:27:49skyrocketed. Look at this data that
00:27:52we have previously given: Forbes magazine
00:27:56says that Trump's fortune skyrocketed from
00:27:593.9 billion dollars in 2024, that is,
00:28:03the year before returning to the White House, to
00:28:067 billion dollars in
00:28:092026. You heard that right. It increased from
00:28:123.9 to 7 billion dollars
00:28:16in less than 2 years. What does
00:28:19Trump say? He says that he did not commit acts of corruption, but that he
00:28:22benefited from the rise in the stock market like many other
00:28:26Americans. But well, as the leader of the Democratic
00:28:29caucus in the House of Representatives told us on this program,
00:28:34the Democrats are going to investigate all this. They are going to investigate Trump's businesses
00:28:38and his family if they win these elections. For example, they want to investigate
00:28:41his cryptocurrency businesses.
00:28:44They want to investigate the $400 million plane that Qatar
00:28:48gave him, which is still not clear if it will remain in the hands of the
00:28:51US government or go to Trump's presidential library, meaning
00:28:55to Trump. They want to investigate the presidential pardons of several
00:28:58convicts, whose family and friends made donations
00:29:03to Trump's campaign and personal projects.
00:29:08the polls, Tuesday's elections will take place in
00:29:11a very adverse climate for Trump. But
00:29:15well, as we saw in Brazil last
00:29:18politics you should never say never, everything is
00:29:21possible, although all the indicators point to an
00:29:24overwhelming victory for the Democrats.
00:29:28Well, thank you for joining us. I invite you as always to my YouTube
00:29:31channel. There you will
00:29:34be able to see all our programs after they air on CNN, my columns and
00:29:38articles. Thank you, until next
00:29:40week.
00:29:45Opentimer presents, brought to you by.
00:30:00For more than 60 years, it has trained professionals with
00:30:03quality education, innovating, experimenting, and
00:30:06teaching entrepreneurship, combining international experiences,
00:30:10technology, and a global outlook to think beyond any
00:30:13border. And now you can also study online.
00:30:16Discover your career, more than
00:30:20a university, more than you expect.
00:30:32We are CNN, the world leader in news.
00:30:46Tuesday, October 27, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
00:30:50had double reason to celebrate. To the fourth
00:30:53term he achieved, something unprecedented in Brazil,
00:30:56was added his 81st birthday. His.