Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:07The legend says that the land of Pasundan was created
00:00:10when God was smiling.
00:00:13The beautiful natural landscape and the friendliness of its people
00:00:17are a gift
00:00:18in themselves.
00:00:23However, behind its millions of charms lies
00:00:27the potential for disasters that can appear at any time.
00:00:32it just happened so I immediately ran here sir.
00:00:35I looked for my family first. After
00:00:39I met my family, I was safe,
00:00:42all of them.
00:00:45The earthquake fault in West Java is a threat
00:00:48to the residents and infrastructure it
00:00:51passes through. So what
00:00:55mitigation steps can be
00:00:58taken when an earthquake occurs?
00:01:01We hope that the residents will
00:01:03follow what has been made and
00:01:07studied by
00:01:09variations between countries. When there are tariff variations the government. First, stay calm, and then if the earthquake is big, it would be
00:01:13best for us to crawl out
00:01:17or we look for a safe spot in
00:01:20the house. Use tools that can
00:01:23be used
00:01:24for.
00:02:07uses a technique called
00:03:21The Central Statistics Agency has just released the latest official statistical news
00:03:24as of November 5, 2026, regarding
00:03:27Indonesia's economic performance.
00:03:30The result is that Indonesia's economy recorded solid growth of up to
00:03:345.47% year-on-year in the third
00:03:38quarter of this
00:03:39look, many, especially those year. This figure surpasses the achievement of the third quarter of
00:03:42the previous year, which was only 5.04%.
00:03:46This economic growth
00:03:49with the conditions is mainly still supported by household consumption expenditure, which
00:03:51remains stable. The performance of household consumption in
00:03:55the third quarter of 2026 was still driven by
00:03:58an increase in the value of goods and services transactions online, increased
00:04:02public mobility and tourism activities, as well as various
00:04:05government policies in controlling
00:04:08inflation. In addition to household consumption, another driving
00:04:12component that pushed economic growth
00:04:15entrepreneurs and also 63 economists this quarter was gross fixed capital formation or PMTB, which grew solidly
00:04:18by 6.06%.
00:04:21Reflecting the growth of investment carried out by
00:04:25both the government and the private sector. Meanwhile,
00:04:28government consumption grew by up to
00:04:308.95%, in line with the realization of employee
00:04:34as growth in spending such as salaries and allowances for ASN, as well as the realization
00:04:37of spending on goods and services, especially
00:04:40because it's just manipulating numbers, actually, spending handed over to the community, namely the free nutritious meal program or
00:04:44MBG. From the production side, economic activity
00:04:48is also supported by several sectors such as the processing sector, which
00:04:51contributed to growth up to 1.20%,
00:04:55followed by trade at 0.94%,
00:04:58construction at 0.62%,
00:05:00and information and communication
00:05:02at 0.49%.
00:05:07trade. If we look at Regionally, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Java, and Sulawesi in the third quarter
00:05:10grew above the national growth rate.
00:05:13Bali and Nusa Tenggara recorded the highest growth at
00:05:166.08%, followed by Java
00:05:19at 5.84%, and Sulawesi
00:05:22at 5.68%.
00:05:24The economic growth report for the third quarter generally shows quite
00:05:28encouraging figures. But is this positive growth
00:05:32truly of quality and felt evenly by all Indonesian
00:05:35people, including those outside Java? Can Indonesia
00:05:38maintain this growth momentum so that
00:05:42it's not just a number on
00:05:43paper?
00:05:51Good evening, viewers. You are watching Indonesia Bicara tonight
00:05:54with me, Maya Karim. As we mentioned in the
00:05:57opening, there is quite encouraging
00:06:01achievements related to economic growth in the third quarter of 2026.
00:06:04However, with these achievements, an important question arises: Does
00:06:08economic growth truly reflect the strengthening of purchasing power and
00:06:11an increase in people's welfare? How
00:06:15strong is Indonesia's economic foundation, and what challenges must be anticipated in the
00:06:19future? We will discuss this with the resource persons who have joined us in
00:06:23TVRI Studio 2. There is the Acting Deputy
00:06:261 of Bakom RI, Mas Fitra Faisal.
00:06:29Good evening, Mas Fitra. Good evening, Mbak Maya. And online, we are also
00:06:33connected with a public policy and political economy researcher
00:06:36from Celios, Mas Gusti Raganata. Good evening, Mas
00:06:39Gusti. Evening. Yes,
00:06:43yes, I'll go straight to Mas Fitra. Economic growth in the third
00:06:47quarter of 2026 is quite encouraging. The figure is
00:06:505.47%.
00:06:53Can you explain where this figure comes from?
00:06:56Yes, it's clearly from statistics, right? So if
00:06:59we look at whether the statistics are in accordance with
00:07:03the consensus and how to see the figure
00:07:06of 5.47%. So before this figure came out, actually
00:07:10I, as an economist, had already done several
00:07:14forecasts, right, with several econometric techniques, one of which
00:07:19Bayesian factor autoregressive,
00:07:22which looks at the probability of economic growth
00:07:26being in what range. So it has been forecasted and also the upper bound condition
00:07:30has been looked at. Well, from that side,
00:07:33I see from that model
00:07:36that the probability is 80% to fall between
00:07:405.4% to 5.5%, which
00:07:43is within the range of the realization
00:07:46of 5.47%, right? And if I
00:07:50look at the model again, this
00:07:53is a forecast model, not a statistical calculation model done by BPS,
00:07:57using high-frequency data, some
00:08:01examples of which are, first, if we look at
00:08:04the industrial activity, that has already
00:08:08entered the expansion territory in the third quarter, and also if
00:08:11we look at the trend, especially from the
00:08:14liquidity side and also the credit disbursement from
00:08:17banking, how investment credit increased by
00:08:2023.2% year-on-year and was also followed by
00:08:24working capital credit that also grew by
00:08:2711.8%, and that indicates
00:08:30industrial expansion, right? That's from the production side. Well,
00:08:34similarly, if we look at the consumption side, the
00:08:37Mandiri Spending Index, if we look at it in the third quarter of this year,
00:08:41grew by 6%. Even higher compared to the third quarter of last year, which was only
00:08:454.3%. Similarly, with trends, for example,
00:08:48QRIS, QRIS grew by 75.8%, which
00:08:52reflects the transaction conditions in the financial sector,
00:08:56for one. Well, is this data in line
00:09:01announced by BPS yesterday? Well, if we look at how
00:09:05the translation of investment credit and also working capital
00:09:09is, we also see it in the development based
00:09:12on the business sector. If we look at the business sector, the growth of
00:09:16the manufacturing or processing industry sector grew by
00:09:195.87%, higher
00:09:22than the previous position in the second quarter of
00:09:244.52%. And even more promising,
00:09:28and this is in line with the trend of
00:09:31tourist movement, especially domestic tourists
00:09:35or local tourists, domestic tourism grew
00:09:37year-on-year, if the Q3 data is
00:09:409.28%, and this correlates positively
00:09:43with figures such
00:09:46accommodation and beverages, which is 11.22%, and
00:09:50also financial services, which we also saw QRIS and e-money usage
00:09:53increase by 30.3%. This is also reflected in
00:09:57the financial and insurance sector, which also
00:10:01grew by 8.47%, even higher
00:10:04than its condition in the second quarter, which was 3.11%. Now,
00:10:08all these trends are quite consistent. The second interesting
00:10:12thing is the difference in
00:10:14external demand from international
00:10:19the second quarter, it was
00:10:22in deficit for two consecutive months.
00:10:25So, in the second quarter, it was in deficit for two months,
00:10:29and positive for one month, or surplus.
00:10:32We grew by 5.29%. Now,
00:10:36in the third quarter, we had a surplus
00:10:39for three consecutive months: 130 million dollars, then it became
00:10:433.5 billion US dollars, 3.3 billion,
00:10:460.7 billion US dollars in the third quarter. And we can see
00:10:50its translation, first, from exports. Previously, in the second
00:10:53quarter, it was 4.06%, becoming 4 point
00:10:5759%, and then imports also decreased significantly. Previously,
00:11:01it was exposed to rising energy prices, but because
00:11:04there was a normalization mode,
00:11:08imports also decreased quite a bit, from previously
00:11:129 point 9.4%
00:11:14to 7.3%. Now, this indicates
00:11:18that, first, there is external demand that is also triggered
00:11:21by trade diversion. This trade diversion comes
00:11:24from what? The United States implemented Section 301
00:11:28of the Trade Act of 1974,
00:11:31which then provided tariff
00:11:34between countries, and Indonesia's tariffs in this case become more
00:11:38competitive compared to other trade partners for the United States,
00:11:42there is also trade diversion, where the United
00:11:46States, which usually imports from Vietnam or imports from Thailand,
00:11:49imports from Indonesia. Well, one of them is also, if we look at
00:11:53the international trade data announced last Monday, trade partners,
00:11:57especially from the United States, increased by 25%,
00:12:00usually 10-15%. Now, this indicates
00:12:04that the trend is actually in line and falls within
00:12:08the upper bound. Indeed, even though if we talk about consensus,
00:12:12it's 5.2% to 5.3%, but
00:12:15if we talk about the probability of it entering the upper bound, it's
00:12:18quite large, over 80% probability using the Bayesian technique
00:12:22earlier. So, in the end, if I look at it, 5.47%
00:12:26is not surprising, although, of course, the
00:12:29challenge is that there is uneven growth among
00:12:33several consumer groups. Now, this is what we can
00:12:36see, whether this figure is relevant to the
00:12:40public's feelings or not. We will discuss this again if there is
00:12:43time. Okay, good. So the 5.47%
00:12:47is seen from several indicators that Mas has explained a lot. I want
00:12:50to turn to Mas Gusti. Mas Gusti, how do you read the economic
00:12:54growth of Indonesia at 5.47% in the third quarter
00:12:58of 2026? Does this indicate a strengthening
00:13:01economic fundamental or are there seasonal factors and government
00:13:05stimulus that also contributed to it?
00:13:07Yes,
00:13:10actually, what Mas said is interesting. So, the
00:13:13BPS results for this quarter, 5.47%,
00:13:17were higher than the previous quarter's announcement. But in terms of
00:13:20household consumption, QoQ, or quarter-on-quarter,
00:13:24it actually contracted by 0.57%, minus
00:13:27that is. That's one. Second, that's also validated by
00:13:31the weakening of the Consumer Confidence Index from Bank Indonesia. It weakened
00:13:34this month, right? And that also,
00:13:38earlier we also talked about investment, right? Where actually
00:13:41government spending was aggressive on villages
00:13:45and so on, so construction credit all went
00:13:49there. And that doesn't reflect that the credit went
00:13:53to the private sector or the community. Right? We also know that some
00:13:56other think tanks also mentioned that the trickle-down effect,
00:14:00so to speak, didn't grow downwards. The impact was minimal.
00:14:03And that also created a trade-off, which made
00:14:07our fiscal burden heavier, actually. Where the victims
00:14:10are the regions, where transfers to regions are getting thinner. We see
00:14:14some regions having difficulty paying employee salaries
00:14:17themselves. And also, construction growth is not
00:14:21in sync with KPR growth, which is 4.3%, right? And it's
00:14:25clear that construction growth was driven by village-owned enterprises, actually, right? Almost
00:14:2821,000 more units, right? Village-owned enterprises
00:14:32were built, and we know the impact is still not there, and it's not
00:14:35significant yet. And I think the jump in the
00:14:39transportation sector that we read in the BPS report, 8%,
00:14:43we have to look at it in more detail, whether it's actually included in
00:14:46the warehousing sub-sector or if transportation is also included, because
00:14:50there's the delivery of transportation to each
00:14:53village-owned enterprise, right? If that's included, it's reasonable,
00:14:57for example, for it to grow 8%, right? So,
00:15:00the growth recorded by BPS is very interesting, actually,
00:15:05which ones fit, right? And actually, the
00:15:09economic movement is only the movement of government spending, whose trickle-down
00:15:13effect, in my opinion, is not spread enough to the
00:15:16community. That's it. Okay, I'll go straight to Mas Fitra. It doesn't
00:15:20reach the bottom. How does Mas Fitra explain what was said earlier about
00:15:24village-owned enterprises and other
00:15:27things? First, if we look at the trend of government spending, year-on-year,
00:15:31we have to see that the trend is declining.
00:15:34If we look at the first quarter, the growth
00:15:38of government spending was 21.8%,
00:15:41then in the second quarter, it was 15.97%.
00:15:45Now it's not even a double-digit number, it's only
00:15:478.95%. What does that mean? It means that in this context,
00:15:51there has been a normalization of government spending, meaning it has become more
00:15:55efficient. And from the other side, if we look at
00:15:58the multiplier effect, it has become much higher. Why? Because if we look at
00:16:02the government component or government spending, it's only 7%
00:16:06of the variable. Because the biggest variable is still consumption,
00:16:09around 50%. But what's also interesting
00:16:12is the trend of PMTB, gross fixed capital
00:16:15formation. Now, we have to see that there has
00:16:18been a shift in the economic structure that was previously
00:16:21driven by the demand sector, but this is now driven
00:16:25by the investment sector, gross fixed capital formation. How do we
00:16:29see that in Q1, PMTB grew by
00:16:325.96%, then continued in Q2, growing by
00:16:366.87%, although there was moderation in Q3
00:16:40at 6.06%.
00:16:42But Q1, Q2, Q3, even in Q4
00:16:46of 2025, which grew by 6.12%,
00:16:50on average, it was already above economic growth and already above consumption
00:16:53growth. Now, if friends who do investment
00:16:57and infrastructure modeling will surely understand
00:17:00that there is a lag in consumption, and
00:17:04there is already a theoretical concept by Jean-Baptiste
00:17:07Say, who stated that supply creates its own demand.
00:17:11So, the importance or presence of this industry will also
00:17:15generate demand, even though there is a time lag. And we can
00:17:18also see that the pattern is somewhat similar
00:17:21to the trend of banking credit. The trend of banking
00:17:24credit that I mentioned earlier for investment is 21.2%, for working capital
00:17:28it's 11.89%. This means it's for business
00:17:32expansion, and that is reflected in the PMI figure in October,
00:17:36even though this is past the second quarter, but it will eventually
00:17:39have an impact in the fourth quarter, where our
00:17:42PMI became 54. Indeed, if we look at the loan
00:17:46growth in consumption, it's only 4.6%. But
00:17:49this is the thing: eventually, industrial activity
00:17:52will then provide
00:17:55a kind of pull-up demand from
00:17:59the consumer side, because they consume because of what? Because they have
00:18:02money. Now, where does that money come from? When there's
00:18:05industry. Now, indeed, if we look again,
00:18:09from the consumption trend, it was still above
00:18:125%, 5.04%. But
00:18:15indeed, the growth, if we look at it, from Q1 was 5.52, then
00:18:195.06 in Q2, 5.04 in Q3,
00:18:22this is actually still stagnant or still stuck in
00:18:26the 5% range, unable to move up. Why? Because it really
00:18:30needs a boost from the industry side, which also translates
00:18:33into actors who are quasi-government or and
00:18:37also collaborate with other investors. We can
00:18:41also see its translation to banking credit
00:18:45demand because there are business sectors that are growing, but on the
00:18:48other hand, of course, there is also how
00:18:51the community, especially those in the middle class,
00:18:55who still haven't received the most benefits, because if we look, there's
00:18:58a kind of disproportionality. If we look at consumption, consumption is
00:19:02dominated by the top 20% income group, which controls 45 to
00:19:0650%. The bottom 40% only controls
00:19:0917%, and the rest are in the middle. Now,
00:19:13that's why if we
00:19:17in the middle, are struggling because why? They don't
00:19:20get social assistance, and they are not rich. This means that if we compare
00:19:24based on expenditure groups, the bottom 40%, even though they are
00:19:27in the marginal group, or in Islam,
00:19:31called the poor, but if we look at their growth
00:19:34incidence curve, in the last 5 years, it's been positive. Why? Because of social assistance,
00:19:38PKH, and even part of MBG is included here. Now,
00:19:41meanwhile, the problem is this middle group. How can
00:19:45we then increase consumption opportunities for this
00:19:49middle group? It's by, as I said earlier, building the industry, as per
00:19:53the fifth principle, industrialization. But
00:19:55industrialization is not enough; there must be absorptive capacity from
00:19:58the people. Speaking of investment, which sector is
00:20:02then the focus of the government? But
00:20:05before I continue.
00:23:24You're back with us on Indonesia Bicara. We are discussing Indonesia's
00:23:28economy growing beyond market expectations.
00:23:32And we still have Mas Fitra here, and
00:23:35connected online is Mas Gustri Ragata from Salio. I'll return
00:23:39to Mas Fitra. There was a pending question earlier. You mentioned
00:23:42that the investment value increased. Actually, which sector
00:23:46is the government focusing on to continuously
00:23:49increase the investment value, not just in terms
00:23:52of its value, but also able to absorb and create jobs?
00:23:56So, when we talk about economic multiplier effect, there are six
00:24:00core infrastructures or six core sectors, namely energy, then
00:24:04ICT, water sanitation, water resources, then housing,
00:24:07and also transportation. These are what can ultimately
00:24:10provide a large multiplier effect, providing an
00:24:14economic impact that can ultimately boost economic growth to even 8%.
00:24:17Now, if we also look at developments, here we can also see
00:24:21the translation in the processing industry, which has
00:24:24already reached 5.87% in the third quarter. And if
00:24:27we look again, the main actor is not the government,
00:24:30but one of them is the state-owned enterprise and also
00:24:34co-investing with private investors,
00:24:38because if we look at the government's role, over time, if we look,
00:24:41its role will not be larger, even if year-on-year,
00:24:44it grew even smaller than in the second
00:24:48quarter, which was 8.95%. This means that the economy
00:24:52has, if I, from the beginning of the year, explained that
00:24:55the government needed to jump-start the economy, because after
00:24:59COVID, there was indeed a kind of comorbidity
00:25:02where there was a scarring effect due to the pandemic, so the industry dropped.
00:25:06So, in the end, a jump start was needed. That's why in the first quarter,
00:25:10there was 12.8% growth in government spending
00:25:14year-on-year, then in the second quarter, there was growth of
00:25:1715.97%, although that also came from a low base effect in
00:25:21the previous year. But if we look at the
00:25:25third quarter, it is getting smaller in proportion,
00:25:28or if we look at the year-on-year growth, it means we can
00:25:32see that, first, the multiplier effect of government spending
00:25:35has become larger. Second, the economy has been successfully weaned
00:25:39from fiscal dominance, in this case, more towards
00:25:43private sectors and private actors. Now, if
00:25:46we also look at yesterday, Mbak Maya, we have
00:25:50already started exporting
00:25:53battery cells. These battery cells, not
00:25:56many can do that because it's a complex
00:26:00process. Previously, it was nickel ore, then we processed it into
00:26:04cathode material, mixed hydroxide precipitate, then
00:26:07it became lithium cells, and even some of the electrolytic
00:26:10aluminum, we can then build
00:26:14a kind of case for the battery
00:26:17cells. And from here, with a factory
00:26:21with a capacity of 8
00:26:24GWh, we are able to entertain 120
00:26:27to 150,000 electric cars in the world.
00:26:30Although not many, this is just a start. Now, if we look at
00:26:34the journey of the value chain, in the context of the
00:26:38production network, we have then focused
00:26:41on value-added industries, and that will generate
00:26:45jobs. Now, if we look at the developments, especially in the first
00:26:49semester, in the second quarter, our FDI came in at
00:26:5227.2%. Now, year-on-year,
00:26:55although on Wall Street, it's different between Wall Street and Main Street.
00:26:59We see how our stock market is in the red,
00:27:03right, Wall Street, but on Main Street, it's still okay
00:27:06and still going strong. But, of course, we also have to pay attention
00:27:10to the conditions on Wall Street. How the government is
00:27:14also focusing on improving the financial sector, as proven by the improvement
00:27:18in the financial sector in the third quarter, which also
00:27:21grew quite significantly. In the third quarter, it grew
00:27:25by 8.47%, even higher than its position in the second quarter.
00:27:29Now, this is an interesting point. We also have
00:27:32to see how we can balance the development of Main
00:27:36Street and Wall Street. Okay, I'll continue on job creation.
00:27:39I want to turn to Mas Gusti. Mas
00:27:43Gusti, how do you see the condition of job
00:27:46creation and then compared to the quality
00:27:49of wages that should also be read along with the
00:27:51economic growth
00:27:54figure? Well, if our economy is indeed growing above 5%,
00:27:58then who is it growing for? That's one. Second, because we have several surveys,
00:28:02also found from friends in Kadın or friends elsewhere,
00:28:05they feel that all entrepreneurs feel that their economy
00:28:09is deteriorating, their business is deteriorating, right? So actually the numbers mentioned by Mas
00:28:12Fitra earlier and also the community's achievements are actually growing for whom? And then we
00:28:16also, I noted earlier regarding the government's fiscal policy not
00:28:20financing much anymore, moving to the private sector for example. Well, perhaps what we read
00:28:24from other records is also that 26,661 KDMP
00:28:28outlets use quasi debt from
00:28:30Himbara SOEs and this will also become
00:28:33another problem, it will become another problem, right?
00:28:37In the future, if it continues to use Himbara's money and because they have to return
00:28:41the money from the KDMP loan that we don't know how they will
00:28:44return that loan money from Himbara. Indeed, government development
00:28:48has decreased, right, according to BPS, but it uses SOE money or
00:28:51Himbara like that. Then when we talk about job creation,
00:28:55if in the industry itself, yes, because there was
00:28:59a weakness in the rupiah, our exports might become attractive, as Mas
00:29:02Fitra mentioned, but it is also vulnerable to global economic weaknesses that
00:29:06are indeed still volatile, because we know geopolitically, the economy in
00:29:10Indonesia is also problematic like that, the global economy, I mean,
00:29:14is also problematic. Well, then if they
00:29:17export, but if the raw materials are also imported, then that is also pressured by the rupiah
00:29:21exchange rate too, right? So it's the same thing, that's what I mean, in the sense that job
00:29:25opportunities will also be difficult to create if the raw materials themselves are expensive, right?
00:29:28So as a result, job opportunities will not open up that much
00:29:32because they will cover the cost of purchasing imported raw materials, which
00:29:36will be more expensive when the rupiah exchange rate is under pressure
00:29:39like that. And we also see lately, eh
00:29:42the average person waits 1 year for fresh graduates currently,
00:29:45that's why I'm also interested to see how the government's
00:29:49internship hub program is actually to close these gaps
00:29:52like this. In the past, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, fresh graduates
00:29:56were unemployed for at most 1 month, 2 months, then got full-time jobs. Now they
00:30:00are forced to intern first.
00:30:02And they wait for up to 1 year for full-time work.
00:30:06That's why I'm questioning who this 5% growth is for,
00:30:10with those beautiful words or statistics. Who actually feels this?
00:30:13Meanwhile, surveys from
00:30:17conducted by LPMUI also state that many government
00:30:21policies are not suitable or improve the situation and this has resulted
00:30:25in the acceptance rate
00:30:28of President Prabowo, which was surveyed,
00:30:30also continuing to decline. And it reached almost 50% currently.
00:30:34This is a turning point, right? Can these
00:30:38data really restore the situation like this? Because when we talk about growth, it must be real,
00:30:41truly felt by the people at the bottom. Now, when we talk about the people at
00:30:45the bottom, maybe those at the bottom, maybe farmers, are now talking better
00:30:49when the price of pictures is bought higher, but the question is, can rice
00:30:52be obtained easily? That will become another problem, right?
00:30:56Rice may exist, but it's not easy
00:30:59to get, so food security also becomes weak like that.
00:31:02Hmm, eh, Mas Fitra answered earlier, who is this growth for,
00:31:06and then there are concerns that need to be answered.