Health & Science Desk
Daily health and science brief, drawn from a six-persona AI analyst roster: Clinical Wire, Pandemic Watch, Pharma Pipeline, Research Front, Public Health Monitor and Longevity Ledger.
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Kenya has confirmed its first-ever Ebola case and death — a citizen returning from Congo — as a separate, contested outbreak at a Russian Siberian plague-research institute triggers CDC monitoring and a planned Trump-Putin call. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk report GLP-1 drugs appear to slow biological aging on molecular clocks, and Pacific Life Re closes a $3 billion U.S. longevity reinsurance deal.
Bias-reviewed: LOW Independently rated by Kimi for political-lean, source-diversity, and framing bias before publish. Final orchestration and the published call are made by Claude, a U.S. model.
Today’s Snapshot
Ebola reaches Kenya; Russia plague lab death triggers CDC alert; GLP-1 aging data drops
Kenya confirmed its first-ever Ebola case and death on October 6 — a citizen who had been living in Congo and returned to Nairobi — as international health authorities track what PBS and UN OCHA describe as a fast-moving outbreak. Simultaneously, a contested and still-murky incident at a Russian Siberian institute dedicated to studying plague has drawn CDC monitoring and prompted U.S. President Trump to schedule a call with Putin; an infectious disease expert writing in STAT News urges 'attention, not panic.' On the therapeutic front, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk disclosed that patients on their GLP-1 weight-loss drugs age measurably less quickly on molecular 'aging clocks,' a signal that moved the longevity-finance community as Pacific Life Re simultaneously closed a $3 billion longevity reinsurance agreement with American National, marking the firm's entry into the U.S. market. Utah approved three new health AI pilots — including drug management and women's health — that could ultimately issue care plans and medications without human review, raising immediate questions about oversight and equity.
Synthesis
Points of Agreement
Pandemic Watch (Vasquez) and Clinical Wire (Brennan/Gupta) both read the Kenya Ebola case as a confirmed, institutionally-backed event requiring immediate response, and both read the Russian Siberian plague incident as pathogen-unconfirmed and requiring data before clinical or public alarm — Vasquez emphasizing CDC surveillance access, Brennan/Gupta anchoring on the 'Contested' independent model flag. Pharma Pipeline (Crane) and Longevity Ledger (Adeyemi) agree that the GLP-1 aging-clock disclosures are asset-class events regardless of clinical validation status, with Crane locating the signal in future reimbursement pathway disruption and Adeyemi locating it in annuity liability tail extension. Longevity Ledger and Public Health Monitor (Okonkwo) both identify the DiMe AgeTech data — 75% of adults 50+ want to age at home — as a structural signal about where healthspan investment should flow, though they differ on who captures the dividend.
Points of Disagreement
Clinical Wire and Longevity Ledger are in productive tension on the GLP-1 aging-clock data: Clinical Wire demands peer-reviewed study design, effect sizes, and clock-methodology disclosure before treating the signal as actionable, while Longevity Ledger argues the capital-markets and insurance-pricing implications do not wait for peer review — the direction of the probability distribution is what moves reinsurance deals, not the p-value. Public Health Monitor and Pharma Pipeline diverge on the Utah AI pilot story: Okonkwo reads the removal of human review as a distributional harm risk concentrated in underserved populations, while Crane's asset-analytical lens would read the same pilots as market-access innovation for drug management in underserved geographies — a disagreement about whether the primary risk is algorithmic bias or access gap. Pandemic Watch's structural vigilance on the Russian plague incident is explicitly flagged as potentially running ahead of the transmission data; Clinical Wire's call to hold the alarm until pathogen confirmation is the more conservative and currently more defensible position.
Pivotal Question
For the GLP-1 aging story: will Lilly or Novo Nordisk publish peer-reviewed data specifying which aging clock was used, the comparator arm design, and a clinical endpoint (not biomarker) follow-through protocol? If yes, Clinical Wire's skepticism softens and Longevity Ledger's capital framing gains clinical backing. For the Russia incident: will CDC obtain genomic sequencing or clinical pathology data confirming or ruling out Yersinia pestis — and will that data be shared publicly? That single data point resolves the Contested status and either closes the tail-risk scenario or opens it.
Bias Flags
- Pandemic Watch: Structural vigilance on novel pathogen events; may over-weight tail-risk before transmission data matures — explicitly flagged in today's take
- Clinical Wire: Evidence-first framing can delay actionable clinical guidance; appropriate here given 'Contested' status of Russia incident and drugmaker-sourced aging-clock data
- Pharma Pipeline: Asset-lens framing on GLP-1 aging data runs ahead of clinical validation; under-weights patient access concerns in Utah AI pilot story
- Longevity Ledger: Economics lens prices reinsurance and capital events before biology is settled; Pacific Life Re deal framed as confirmation of biological-age deceleration when it is a bet, not a finding
- Public Health Monitor: Equity-first lens on Utah AI pilots may underweight the genuine access-gap problem these pilots are trying to solve in underserved geographies
Routing
Voices seated: Pandemic Watch, Clinical Wire, Pharma Pipeline, Longevity Ledger, Public Health Monitor
Five voices activated: Pandemic Watch leads on the Russia Siberian plague incident and Kenya Ebola confirmation; Clinical Wire provides evidence grounding on both outbreak stories and the Class I drug recall; Pharma Pipeline reads the Forbion $2.6B raise and Eli Lilly/Novo Nordisk GLP-1 aging-clock data as asset events; Longevity Ledger anchors the GLP-1 biological aging signal and the $3B Pacific Life Re longevity reinsurance deal as capital-allocation and healthspan-economy events; Public Health Monitor covers the Utah AI health pilots and their equity implications. Research Front was considered for the GLP-1 aging-clock story but Longevity Ledger's capital-event framing is primary and Clinical Wire covers the methodological skepticism.
Analyst Voices AI analysis
Pandemic Watch Dr. Elena Vasquez
Two distinct infectious-disease signals are running in parallel today, and they require very different calibrations. Kenya's first-ever Ebola confirmation is the more clearly grounded: a Kenyan citizen living in Congo returned to Nairobi over the weekend and died. PBS and UN OCHA both confirm Kenyan authorities made the diagnosis. This is a cross-border transmission event in a capital city with an international airport — the epidemiological profile that demands immediate contact tracing, ring vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV, and coordinated WHO response. The fast-moving descriptor in the reporting is not tabloid language; Ebola's early exponential window is genuinely narrow. What I do not yet have is the exposure timeline, the contact list size, or whether any secondary cases have been identified. Those numbers will define whether Nairobi contains this or exports it.
The Russia situation is a different animal — and I want to be precise about that difference. What the corpus confirms: a laboratory worker at a Russian institute dedicated to studying plague and other infectious diseases died of severe pneumonia, dozens of people were placed under observation, and CDC is monitoring. What is not confirmed: the causative agent, whether this is pneumonic plague (Yersinia pestis via respiratory route), whether a second death has occurred, and whether Russian authorities have formally acknowledged any of this. The DW Fact Check piece in the corpus explicitly flags that social media claims have outrun the verified facts. STAT News's infectious disease expert calls for 'attention, not panic,' and that is the correct posture — but attention means the CDC needs to extract genomic and clinical data from Russian counterparts, not reassuring statements. A laboratory exposure at a BSL-3 or BSL-4 facility studying plague is categorically different from a wild-type zoonotic spillover. The transmission dynamics, if any exist, would reflect the exposure pathway. Trump's scheduled call with Putin is diplomatically useful only if it produces actual epidemiological transparency.
My calibration flag is relevant here: I structurally weight tail-risk scenarios. But the prudent read is that this is a contested, low-data, potentially laboratory-contained event — not a community-spread outbreak. The R-value for pneumonic plague is not self-sustaining at low inocula without continued exposure. What I am watching is whether Russian authorities confirm the pathogen and whether any secondary cases emerge outside the institute's quarantine perimeter. That boundary is the leading indicator. The headlines are the lagging one.
Kenya's Ebola case is a confirmed cross-border capital-city event demanding immediate contact tracing; the Russian Siberian lab incident remains pathogen-unconfirmed and likely contained, but CDC surveillance access to genomic data is the pivotal variable.
Bias flag — Structural vigilance on novel pathogen events; may over-weight tail-risk before transmission data matures — explicitly flagged in today's take
Clinical Wire Dr. Sarah Brennan & Dr. Anil Gupta
On the infectious disease front, we want to add a methodological note to Dr. Vasquez's read. The Kenya Ebola confirmation has the institutional backing — Kenyan health authorities, PBS, UN OCHA — that makes it clinically actionable. The Russia story does not. 'Died of severe pneumonia' and 'died of pneumonic plague' are not interchangeable diagnoses, and the corpus is explicit that fact-checkers have identified unsubstantiated claims circulating in parallel with the genuine public health question. The CDC monitoring posture is appropriate; clinical alarm without confirmed pathogen identification is not. We note that the independent model flags the Russian incident as 'Contested' — the underlying facts are less settled, and we will hedge accordingly.
On the Class I drug recall: Vitruvias Therapeutics Inc. has an active Class I recall for a superpotent drug. Class I is the FDA's highest severity classification — meaning there is a reasonable probability of serious adverse health consequences or death. The corpus does not provide the specific drug name, formulation, or indication, but a superpotency failure means patients receiving this product could be exposed to doses significantly above the labeled amount. Clinicians should check FDA MedWatch for lot numbers and patient notification status. Sterling Pharmaceutical Services LLC carries two separate Class II recalls for lack of assurance of sterility — a sterility failure in injectable or compounded products is a serious infection risk even at Class II, and the repetition of the same firm across two recall events in the same 14-day window is a quality systems red flag worth regulatory scrutiny.
On the GLP-1 aging-clock data from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk: we are watching this carefully, but the corpus provides drugmaker-sourced readouts, not peer-reviewed trial data. 'Aging less quickly according to molecular clocks' is a biomarker endpoint, not a clinical outcome. Epigenetic clocks measure methylation patterns associated with biological age — they are interesting correlates, but the translation from clock deceleration to reduced all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, or functional decline requires prospective endpoint trials. The press release precedes the peer review. We do not dismiss the signal; we ask for the study design, the comparator arm, the effect size, and whether the clock used was Horvath, GrimAge, PhenoAge, or a proprietary variant — each has different predictive validity.
The Class I Vitruvias Therapeutics superpotent drug recall carries the FDA's highest severity designation; the GLP-1 aging-clock claims are drugmaker-sourced biomarker data, not peer-reviewed clinical endpoint evidence.
Bias flag — Evidence-first framing can delay actionable clinical guidance; appropriate here given 'Contested' status of Russia incident and drugmaker-sourced aging-clock data
Pharma Pipeline Richard Crane
Forbion has closed a €2.6 billion raise across a pair of venture funds — the firm's largest to date — and the BioPharma Dive framing is accurate: this is a European biotech industry that has structurally fallen behind U.S. and China capital deployment. What this number tells me is that institutional limited partners still see European early-stage biotech as an asset class worth expanding exposure to, even in a fund-flow environment where the ICI data shows $19.7 billion leaving long-term mutual funds and ETFs in a single week. That's a notable divergence: risk-off in public markets, but private biotech capital is still being raised at scale. The Forbion close suggests the LP base believes the public-market volatility is creating vintage-year opportunities in private drug development — a not-unreasonable thesis if you have a 10-12 year fund horizon.
On Lilly and Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 aging-clock disclosures: Dr. Brennan and Dr. Gupta are right to be skeptical of the biomarker framing, but I want to layer in the asset angle. If these companies can demonstrate — even preliminarily — that their GLP-1 agonists slow biological aging, the addressable market expands dramatically beyond obesity and diabetes. The current IRA negotiation framework under Medicare Part D prices these drugs as metabolic treatments. A longevity indication would require entirely new health-economic modeling, a new reimbursement pathway, and potentially a new patent life cycle on reformulated or combination products. Lilly's 10-K risk factor novelty score in the latest SEC filing cycle sits at 19.7% — relatively low — suggesting the company is not yet flagging longevity-indication risk factors as materially new disclosure items. That will change if the aging-clock data enters clinical trial design as a primary endpoint.
The GAO report on Medicare Part D vertical integration — reissued with revisions on October 6 — is a sleeper story for pipeline watchers. The finding that owned pharmacies accounted for roughly 28% of Part D drug utilization and approximately 24% of total pharmacy payments for four large plan sponsors in 2023 is a structural market-access signal. If CMS acts on this, the distribution economics for specialty drugs — including GLP-1s and any future longevity-indication biologics — could shift materially.
Forbion's $2.6B close in a risk-off public fund-flow week signals LP conviction in private biotech valuations; Lilly's muted 10-K risk-factor novelty (19.7%) suggests the company is not yet treating longevity as a material disclosure event — that will shift if aging-clock data enters trial design.
Bias flag — Asset-lens framing on GLP-1 aging data runs ahead of clinical validation; under-weights patient access concerns in Utah AI pilot story
Longevity Ledger Dr. Soren Adeyemi
Two events today deserve to be read as the same economy story wearing different clothes. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk disclosed that patients on their GLP-1 drugs appear to age measurably less quickly on molecular aging clocks. On the same day, Pacific Life Re closed a $3 billion longevity reinsurance agreement with American National — the firm's explicit entry into the U.S. longevity risk transfer market, after establishing infrastructure across the UK, Netherlands, and Canada. These are not coincidental. The reinsurance capital markets and the drug development pipeline are now pricing the same underlying variable: the probability that a meaningful fraction of the aging population will live longer in better biological condition than current actuarial tables assume.
The GLP-1 aging-clock signal — and I take Dr. Brennan's methodological caution seriously — does not need to be clinically validated to move the longevity-economy math. What matters for pension funds, annuity writers, and long-term care insurers is the direction of the probability distribution. If GLP-1 prevalence continues to expand across the 50-plus cohort, and if even a fraction of the biological-age deceleration signal holds up in longer-term follow-through, the liability tails for annuity books lengthen. That is exactly the risk Pacific Life Re is pricing and transferring. The $3 billion deal is not about today's actuarial tables — it's a bet on where biological age and chronological age diverge over the next two to three decades.
The DiMe 'AgeTech' playbooks released today add a third node to this story: three in four adults aged 50 or older want to age at home, and seven in ten are comfortable using technology to support independent living. That is a massive revealed preference for healthspan investment over institutionalized lifespan extension — and it has direct implications for where the longevity dividend accrues. If GLP-1-driven healthspan gains and AgeTech infrastructure reduce nursing home utilization by even a modest fraction, the Medicare and Medicaid liability projections shift in ways that dwarf the drug cost debate. The question — and it is the right question — is who captures that dividend: the insurers through reduced long-term care exposure, the state through deferred Medicaid spending, or the individuals who remain functional longer.
Pacific Life Re's $3B U.S. longevity reinsurance entry and Lilly/Novo's GLP-1 aging-clock disclosures are converging capital bets on biological-age deceleration lengthening annuity liability tails — the economy story underneath the science headline.
Bias flag — Economics lens prices reinsurance and capital events before biology is settled; Pacific Life Re deal framed as confirmation of biological-age deceleration when it is a bet, not a finding
Public Health Monitor Dr. James Okonkwo
Utah has approved three new health AI pilots covering drug management and women's health, expanding a program that the Healthcare Dive coverage describes as already controversial. The distinguishing feature — and the one that should concern any public health practitioner — is that these pilots could ultimately allow AI to provide care plans and medications without human review. That is not a futuristic scenario; it is the explicit design goal of the expansion. The populations most likely to interact with AI-delivered care in Utah's pilot framework are those with the least access to conventional physician oversight: rural patients, Medicaid enrollees, underinsured individuals. If the AI system produces care plans calibrated on training data that underrepresents these communities — a well-documented problem in clinical AI literature — the errors will fall disproportionately on the groups the program is nominally serving. The absence of human review removes the correction mechanism.
The Kenya Ebola confirmation carries a public health equity dimension that the outbreak framing can obscure. A Kenyan citizen living in Congo who returned to Nairobi for care — that movement pattern reflects the reality that healthcare-seeking behavior crosses borders when local systems are under-resourced. The speed of Ebola's early phase means that contact tracing in Nairobi will need to account for transportation hubs, informal housing density, and the social networks of returning migrants. These are not variables that appear in a standard WHO outbreak response template calibrated for rural Congo. Urban capital-city Ebola response requires a different resource allocation model.
I want to note the MuckRock Data Liberation Project story in the corpus: thousands of patient harm incidents across four states are now publicly available for analysis. This kind of systematic data release — covering adverse events in hospital settings — is exactly the infrastructure needed to evaluate whether AI-delivered care pilots like Utah's produce distributional harms before they scale. The timing is useful. The question is whether Utah's AI oversight framework will incorporate harm surveillance data of this kind before removing human review from the loop.
Utah's AI health pilots removing human review from care plans will concentrate algorithmic risk in Medicaid and rural populations — the communities least represented in clinical AI training data and least able to detect or appeal errors.
Bias flag — Equity-first lens on Utah AI pilots may underweight the genuine access-gap problem these pilots are trying to solve in underserved geographies
Simulated Opinion
If you had to form a single opinion having heard the roundtable, weighted for known biases, it would be: Kenya's Ebola confirmation is the day's most actionable public health event — confirmed, cross-border, capital-city, fast-moving — and it deserves more institutional attention than the Russia story, which is currently more media event than epidemiological crisis; the CDC should press for pathogen-level data from Moscow but the community-transmission threat is speculative until the quarantine perimeter holds. The GLP-1 aging-clock disclosures are genuinely interesting as a convergence signal — Lilly and Novo are surfacing biomarker data at almost the same moment a $3 billion longevity reinsurance deal closes in the U.S. market, and that co-movement is not coincidental — but Clinical Wire is right that biomarker endpoints are not clinical outcomes, and Longevity Ledger is right that capital markets don't wait for the trial to complete. The most underappreciated story is Utah's AI health pilots: removing human review from drug management and care plans in a state with significant rural and Medicaid populations is a policy experiment whose distributional consequences will be invisible until they are large, and the MuckRock hospital harm data release creates, for the first time, a plausible surveillance infrastructure to catch those harms — if anyone is watching.
Independent Cross-Check — Kimi
Consensus 13 Contested 1 Developing 1
Nigerian Air Force ATR 42 aircraft crash in Ondo State kills 25 people Consensus
Kenya confirms first Ebola case and death in fast-moving outbreak Consensus
Trump scheduled to call Putin about reported plague death at Siberian research institute Consensus
Laboratory worker dies at Russian plague research institute in Siberia, dozens quarantined Contested
Swedish police shoot and wound armed man outside Royal Palace in Stockholm Consensus
Crew-12 mission scheduled to depart ISS after eight months Consensus
Northrop Grumman CRS-24 Cygnus spacecraft scheduled to depart ISS on October 9 Consensus
Actress Eva Marie Saint dies at 102 Consensus
Christa Pike conscious after failed Tennessee execution attempt Developing
Simu Liu marries Allison Hsu in France Consensus
US trade deficit reaches $105.6 billion high Consensus
UN endorses new world map reflecting actual size of Africa Consensus
Pacific Life Re completes $3 billion longevity reinsurance deal with American National Consensus
Major CJNG regional boss 'El Tanque' (Iván Cazarín) captured in Zapopan, Mexico Consensus
M 4.7 earthquake strikes Kermadec Islands, New Zealand Consensus
Watch Next
- CDC disclosure on whether pathogen-level genomic or clinical data has been obtained from Russian authorities on the Siberian institute death — this resolves the 'Contested' status and either closes or opens the community-transmission question
- Kenyan health authority contact-tracing update: secondary case identification or lack thereof in Nairobi within 72 hours is the key containment indicator for the first-ever Kenya Ebola event
- Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk preprint or peer-reviewed submission on GLP-1 aging-clock methodology — which clock (Horvath/GrimAge/PhenoAge/proprietary), effect size, and whether clinical endpoint trials are being designed around the biomarker signal
- FDA MedWatch update on Vitruvias Therapeutics Class I superpotent drug recall: lot numbers, affected indications, and patient notification status
- Utah AI health pilot implementation timeline and oversight framework publication — specifically whether human-review removal requires regulatory sign-off or is at pilot discretion
Historical Power Lenses AI analysis
Napoleon Bonaparte 1799-1815
Napoleon's genius was to act decisively on incomplete information, accepting that waiting for perfect intelligence was itself a strategic choice — usually the wrong one. The Russia plague-lab incident maps directly onto his calculation at Austerlitz: he had incomplete order-of-battle data but read the enemy's intent from behavioral signals (the quarantine perimeter, the sudden opacity from Moscow) rather than confirmed facts. The CDC's monitoring posture is Napoleonic in the correct sense — probe forward, extract what data you can, but do not commit forces (public alarm, travel advisories) until the flanking position (pathogen confirmation) is clear. Where Napoleon failed — the Russian campaign of 1812 — was precisely when he substituted wishful inference for surveillance: assuming Moscow's fall would end the war without confirming Russian willingness to negotiate. The trap here is identical: assuming the quarantine holds without independent verification.
J.P. Morgan 1837-1913
Morgan's response to the Panic of 1907 was to absorb systemic risk before it became contagion — he cornered the key institutions and forced a coordinated resolution before individual failures cascaded. Pacific Life Re's $3 billion longevity reinsurance entry into the U.S. market is a Morganesque move: they are not betting on a single drug or a single company, they are absorbing the systemic longevity-risk liability that annuity writers and pension funds cannot efficiently hold on their own balance sheets. Morgan understood that the lender of last resort captures the best terms precisely because they move when others won't — Pacific Life Re is entering the U.S. longevity reinsurance market at the moment GLP-1 data is making actuarial tables look increasingly obsolete, which is exactly when the pricing is most favorable for a counterparty with capital and a long horizon.
Andrew Carnegie 1835-1919
Carnegie's vertical integration of the steel supply chain — from ore to rail to finished product — eliminated the margin leakage at every handoff. The GAO's finding that four large Medicare Part D plan sponsors' owned pharmacies accounted for approximately 28% of drug utilization and 24% of total pharmacy payments in 2023 is Carnegie's model applied to drug distribution: the plan sponsor, the PBM, and the pharmacy are increasingly under common ownership, and the margin at each stage flows to the same consolidated entity. Carnegie would recognize immediately that the GAO report is not a regulatory curiosity but a description of an industry that has already completed its vertical integration — and that the policy question is not whether to prevent it but whether CMS can claw back any of the margin the integration has captured from the public payer.
Thomas Edison 1847-1931
Edison's strategy was never purely invention — it was regulatory capture through first-mover standardization. He who sets the technical standard controls the ecosystem. Utah's health AI pilots — allowing AI to issue care plans and medications without human review — are a standardization battle in slow motion. The firms whose AI systems get embedded in Utah's Medicaid and drug management infrastructure in 2026 will be extraordinarily difficult to displace in 2030, regardless of whether competing systems are superior, because switching costs in clinical workflow are enormous and reimbursement codes will be written around the incumbent architecture. Edison lost the AC/DC war to Westinghouse precisely because he over-committed to a technical position before the regulatory infrastructure was set. The Utah pilots are the moment when the technical position is being set — and whoever captures that standard captures the market.
Sources Cited
14 sources — show
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- pbs.org/newshour/health/man-living-in-congo-who-went-back-to-kenya-is… News / analysis
- unocha.org/news/todays-top-news-ethiopia-ebola-outbreak-occupied-pale…
- cbc.ca/news/world/pneumonic-plague-trump-putin-russia-9.7372058 News / analysis
- cnbc.com/2026/10/07/trump-putin-russian-plague-death-cdc-pneumonic-.h… News / analysis CNBC profile
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- technologyreview.com/2026/10/06/1145836/weight-loss-drugs-glp1-lilly-…
- reinsurancene.ws/pacific-life-re-completes-3bn-longevity-reinsurance-…
- biopharmadive.com/news/forbion-venture-capital-growth-fund-fundraise/…
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- muckrock.com/news/archives/2026/sep/29/we-got-data-on-thousands-of-pa…