Alaska 1st District
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich | R | 48.6% (4) | 46.5% | — | — | — |
| Bill Hill | I | 45% (4) | 46.6% | — | — | — |
| Eric Hafner | D | 5.8% (2) | 5.9% | — | — | — |
| Jim C. McDermott | L | 2.9% (2) | — | — | — | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 4 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 23 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 from Oct 28 | AtlasIntel | 522 LV | Bill Hill I 46.6 · Nick Begich R 46.5 · Eric Hafner D 5.9 | -40.6 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 23 | The New York Times/Siena University | 610 LV | Nick Begich R 44 · Bill Hill I 37.2 · Eric Hafner D 5.6 | -38.4 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 23 | The New York Times/Siena University | 562 LV | Nick Begich R 51.8 · Bill Hill I 48.2 | — |
| Oct 30 from Oct 23 | The New York Times/Siena University | 576 LV | Nick Begich R 47.7 · Bill Hill I 40.4 · Eric Hafner D 6 | -41.7 |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 659 LV | Nick Begich R 51 · Bill Hill I 49 | — |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 668 LV | Nick Begich R 50 · Bill Hill I 43 · Eric Hafner D 5 | -45.0 |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 694 LV | Nick Begich R 48 · Bill Hill I 42 · Eric Hafner D 5 | -43.0 |
| Oct 3 from Oct 1 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | Nick Begich R 52.7 · Bill Hill I 47.3 | — |
| Oct 3 from Oct 1 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | Nick Begich R 49.8 · Bill Hill I 39.9 · Eric Hafner D 6.9 | -42.9 |
| Oct 1 from Sep 24 | The New York Times/Siena University | 476 LV | Nick Begich R 53.04 · Bill Hill I 46.96 | — |
| Oct 1 from Sep 24 | The New York Times/Siena University | 487 LV | Nick Begich R 48.87 · Bill Hill I 36.78 · Eric Hafner D 8.59 | -40.3 |
| Oct 1 from Sep 24 | The New York Times/Siena University | 504 LV | Nick Begich R 46.59 · Bill Hill I 35.06 · Eric Hafner D 8.19 | -38.4 |
| Sep 11 from Sep 8 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | 800 LV | Nick Begich R 57 · Bill Hill I 43 | — |
| Sep 11 from Sep 8 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | 800 LV | Nick Begich R 51 · Bill Hill I 35 · Eric Hafner D 11 | -40.0 |
| Sep 11 from Sep 8 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | 800 LV | Nick Begich R 45 · Bill Hill I 31 · Eric Hafner D 9 | -36.0 |
Money
No FEC committee matched the names in this race in the current snapshot.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.
Meta in Alaska: $2.0M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Alaska: $29.4M lifetime · Snap targeted at Alaska: $339k in 2026.
All house battlegrounds → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.