House

California 11th District

open seat · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsScott Wiener D +7.051% in the average of 1 pollster since Sep 20

Money$8.2Mraised by listed candidates; Scott Wiener leads with $5.8M

Outside spending$4.1Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingLeanfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Scott Wiener	D	51% (1)	51%	$5.8M	$614k	$2.5M / $82k
Connie Chan	D	44% (1)	44%	$2.4M	$582k	$1.5M / $22k

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 3 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 19 from Oct 16	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab	454 LV	Scott Wiener D 51 · Connie Chan D 44	—
Sep 17 from Sep 15	Tavern Research for Jobs and Democracy PAC D-sponsored	658 LV	Scott Wiener D 53 · Connie Chan D 47	—
Jul 19 from Jul 14	Lake Research Partners D-sponsored	500 LV	Scott Wiener D 45 · Connie Chan D 40	—

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

Platform	Advertiser	Tied to	Spend	Window
Google	CONNIE CHAN FOR CONGRESS	Connie Chan D	$116k	last 4 weeks

Meta in California: $11.3M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $6.2M lifetime under the current map · Google in California: $397.4M lifetime · Snap targeted at California: $3.4M in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.