House

Connecticut 5th District

Seat held by Democrats · incumbent Jahana Hayes D running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsJahana Hayes D +6.051% in the average of 1 pollster since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$2.2Mraised by listed candidates; Jahana Hayes leads with $1.7M

Outside spending$281independent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingLeanfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Jahana Hayes incumbent	D	51% (1)	51%	$1.7M	$1.1M	$281 / —
Chris Shea	R	45% (1)	45%	$466k	$54k	—

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 1 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 1 from Sep 29	OnMessage Inc. R-sponsored	400 LV	Jahana Hayes D 51 · Chris Shea R 45	+6.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.

Meta in Connecticut: $597k Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Connecticut: $18.2M lifetime · Snap targeted at Connecticut: $6k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.