Montana 1st District
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | D | 47.6% (5) | 48.8% | $4.3M | $726k | $823k / — |
| Aaron Flint | R | 43.1% (5) | 48.5% | $2.9M | $408k | $2.5M / $235k |
| Nick Sheedy | L | 3.8% (3) | — | — | — | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 5 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 9 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 from Oct 31 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 311 LV | Sam Forstag D 48.8 · Aaron Flint R 48.5 | +0.3 |
| Oct 21 from Oct 5 | Montana State University Billings | 287 A | Sam Forstag D 49 · Aaron Flint R 32 · Nick Sheedy L 4 | +17.0 |
| Oct 14 from Oct 12 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 329 LV | Sam Forstag D 50 · Aaron Flint R 46 | +4.0 |
| Oct 14 from Oct 12 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC D-sponsored | — LV | Sam Forstag D 48 · Aaron Flint R 45 | +3.0 |
| Sep 24 from Sep 19 | American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | 314 LV | Aaron Flint R 45.9 · Sam Forstag D 45.4 · Nick Sheedy L 5.4 | -0.5 |
| Sep 24 from Sep 19 | American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local | 314 LV | Generic Candidate O 9.5 | — |
| Sep 23 from Sep 20 | Impact Research D-sponsored | 500 LV | Sam Forstag D 47 · Aaron Flint R 44 · Nick Sheedy L 2 | +3.0 |
| Sep 10 from Sep 9 | Public Policy Polling for The Bench D-sponsored | 536 RV | Sam Forstag D 45 · Aaron Flint R 43 | +2.0 |
| Sep 7 from Aug 27 | Rutgers-Eagleton for Montana Free Press | 375 RV | Aaron Flint R 42 · Sam Forstag D 41 · Nick Sheedy L 5 | -1.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.
Meta in Montana: $359k Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Montana: $31.5M lifetime · Snap targeted at Montana: $8k in 2026.
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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.