House

New Mexico 1st District

Seat held by Democrats · incumbent Melanie Ann Stansbury D running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsMelanie Ann Stansbury D +18.053% in the average of 1 pollster since Sep 20
Money$1.7Mraised by listed candidates; Melanie Ann Stansbury leads with $1.7M
Outside spending$127independent expenditures for and against the listed candidates
Implied ratingSafefrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

CandidatePartyPoll avgLatest pollRaisedCashOutside for / against
Melanie Ann Stansbury incumbentD53% (1)53%$1.7M$311k$127 / —
Ndidiamaka OkparekeR35% (1)35%———

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 1 in the window

Field datesPollsterSampleResultD − R
Oct 9 from Oct 1Research & Polling Inc. for Albuquerque Journal380 LVMelanie Ann Stansbury D 53 · Ndidiamaka Okpareke R 35+18.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.

Meta in New Mexico: $566k Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in New Mexico: $15.9M lifetime · Snap targeted at New Mexico: $14k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.