Ohio 15th District
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Leonard | D | 48% (1) | 48% | $1.3M | $98k | $26k / $644k |
| Mike Carey incumbent | R | 45% (1) | 45% | $4.2M | $370k | — / $347k |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 3 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 from Oct 9 | Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC D-sponsored | — LV | Don Leonard D 48 · Mike Carey R 45 | +3.0 |
| Sep 24 from Sep 22 | Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC D-sponsored | 500 LV | Don Leonard D 46 · Mike Carey R 45 | +1.0 |
| Aug 9 from Aug 6 | Hart Research Associates D-sponsored | 401 LV | Mike Carey R 41 · Don Leonard D 37 · Brennan Barrington L 10 | -4.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.
Meta in Ohio: $6.9M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $6.9M lifetime under the current map · Google in Ohio: $177.2M lifetime · Snap targeted at Ohio: $1.7M in 2026.
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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.