House

Texas 28th District

Seat held by Democrats · incumbent Henry Cuellar D running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsHenry Cuellar D +20.054% in the average of 1 pollster since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$4.9Mraised by listed candidates; Henry Cuellar leads with $3.0M

Outside spending$7.1Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingSafefrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Henry Cuellar incumbent	D	54% (1)	54%	$3.0M	$657k	$389k / $5.8M
Tano Tijerina	R	34% (1)	34%	$1.9M	$113k	— / $944k

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 2 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 13 from Oct 7	DCCC Targeting Team D-sponsored	536 LV	Henry Cuellar D 54 · Tano Tijerina R 34	+20.0
Aug 22 from Aug 18	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	600 LV	Henry Cuellar D 45 · Tano Tijerina R 34 · Marlon Duran G 6	+11.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

Platform	Advertiser	Tied to	Spend	Window
Google	TEXANS FOR HENRY CUELLAR CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN	Henry Cuellar D	$109k	last 4 weeks

Meta in Texas: $10.1M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $4.5M lifetime under the current map · Google in Texas: $208.1M lifetime · Snap targeted at this district: $14k in 2026 · Snap targeted at Texas: $595k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.