Virginia 5th District
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGuire | R | 48.5% (2) | 51% | $2.4M | $382k | — |
| Tom Perriello | D | 45% (2) | 45% | $3.8M | $684k | $19k / — |
| Cooke Harvey | I | 6% (1) | — | — | — | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 3 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 from Sep 23 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 600 LV | John McGuire R 51 · Tom Perriello D 45 | -6.0 |
| Sep 24 from Sep 21 | Expedition Strategies D-sponsored | 400 LV | John McGuire R 46 · Tom Perriello D 45 · Cooke Harvey I 6 | -1.0 |
| Aug 1 from Jul 29 | Expedition Strategies D-sponsored | 602 LV | John McGuire R 47 · Tom Perriello D 44 | -3.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snap | Tom Perriello for Congress 1 ads | Tom Perriello D | $1k | 2026 to date |
Meta in Virginia: $1.6M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $4.9M lifetime under the current map · Google in Virginia: $97.5M lifetime · Snap targeted at this district: $4k in 2026 · Snap targeted at Virginia: $100k in 2026.
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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.