Bosnia and Herzegovina: N1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Broadcasts covered (19)

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# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS N1BOS


T H


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A U G U S T 6,2026


G D E L


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# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS


N1BOS


A U G U S T 6,2026


GLOBAL STABILITY FALTERS AS A
RESURGENT TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION UPENDS TECH SOVEREIGNTY AND MIDDLE EAST SECURITY,WHILE EUROPEAN
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
BUCKLES UNDER EXTREME
CLIMATE STRESS AND LABOR


# DAY-AT-A-GLANCE


August 6,2026,marks a critical inflection point in the erosion of post-war international norms and the rise of a transactional,"America First"geopolitical reality.The second Trump administration has fundamentally altered the global technology landscape by imposing an overnight ban on foreign access to advanced AI models,shattering the trust of key allies like Australia and forcing Europe and Asia to seek digital sovereignty or pivot toward Chinese-backed open-source alternatives.This technationalism coincides with a high-stakes standoff in the Strait of Hormuz,where the U.S.is bypassing traditional diplomatic channels,threatening "massive attacks"against Iran while Tehran and Muscat attempt


to negotiate a bilateral maritime framework that excludes Washington entirely.These macro-level shifts suggest a world fracturing into regional silos where security and technology are no longer guaranteed by global alliances but by localized leverage and raw


Domestically,the Balkan region is experiencing a profound institutional crisis.In Bosnia and Herzegovina,the collapse of the industrial sector is manifest in the protracted miner strikes at the Raspotočje pit,where workers are risking their lives underground to demand basic health insurance and unpaid wages.This labor unrest is shadowed by a pervasive culture of political clientelism,characterized by the "cjeduljica"(slip of paper)system of patronage,which has hollowed out state capacity.Meanwhile,Europe's physical infrastructure is failing against the backdrop of an unprecedented climate-energy nexus.Nuclear power plants across Slovenia,Hungary,and Romania have been forced to throttle electricity production because the Danube and Sava rivers are too low and too warm to provide adequate cooling.This environmental degradation is no longer a future threat but a present driver of energy rationing and economic


# MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS


U.S.Tech Isolationism:The Trump
administration's decision to block foreign nationals from accessing frontier AI models like Anthropic's "Fable"has sparked a global crisis of confidence in U.S.platforms,accelerating the push for digital sovereignty in the EU and Asia.
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Hormuz Escalation:Donald Trump has
threatened the biggest attack since WWII if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened,even as Iran and Oman finalize a deal to manage the waterway independently of U.S.oversight.
•


Balkan Industrial Collapse:Miners in
Zenica have remained underground for multiple nights in a desperate protest against the state's failure to pay wages and social contributions,highlighting the bankruptcy of the Federation's energy management.
•


European Energy Crisis:The Krško
nuclear plant and facilities in Romania and Hungary have reduced power output due to record-low river levels,forcing Budapest to extinguish decorative lighting and Bucharest to enter a state of energy emergency.
•


Ukraine War Intensity:A massive
Russian missile and drone strike on Kyiv and surrounding regions has killed at least 17people,while Vladimir Putin formalizes a new military branch dedicated to drone warfare.
•


Public Health Schism:U.S.Health
Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.has used his platform to challenge the scientific consensus on vaccine safety and autism,signaling a major shift in American public health policy toward skepticism and "environmental"investigations.
•


# KEY GOVERNANCE TOPICS


# Armed Conflict &Militarization


The war in Ukraine has entered a phase of
systemic infrastructure targeting,with Russia striking logistics hubs in Brovary and Kvitneva,while Ukraine targets Wildberries warehouses in Tula to disrupt the Russian domestic economy.
•


The establishment of a specialized "Drone
Force"by Putin and the death of a leading Russian drone manufacturer in a car explosion indicate an intensifying shadow war over autonomous technologies.
•


# Climate &Extreme Weather


Extreme heatwaves are destabilizing the
European grid;river temperatures in the Sava have exceeded 28°C,necessitating the throttling of nuclear reactors to prevent environmental catastrophe.
•


The UN warns that a "super El Niño"could push 50million people into acute hunger by 2027,with the most severe impacts predicted for Central and South America.•


# Tech Sovereignty &AI


The weaponization of AI access is now a
primary tool of U.S.statecraft,with the ban on Anthropic models being framed as a national security necessity to prevent foreign adversaries from launching automated zero-day cyber attacks.
•


Emerging technologies like underwater
and satellite data centers are being prototyped in China and Singapore to bypass land and water constraints,signaling a new frontier in critical infrastructure geography.
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# Leadership Dynamics &Governance


In Bosnia,the "cjeduljica"corruption
scandal reveals the extent to which meritocracy has been replaced by partisan slips of paper,leading to the appointment of unqualified loyalists across the civil service.
•


FIFA is facing a leadership mutiny as Jani Infantino's plan to privatize parts of the World Cup has been blocked by UEFA and other confederations,with legends like Luis Figo calling for his immediate resignation.•


# DEEP DIVE:TRENDS AND THEMES


# The End of Technical Interdependence


For decades,the global tech industry operated on a model of open collaboration and shared platforms.The Trump administration's sudden revocation of access to AI frontier models represents the definitive end of this era.This is not merely a trade dispute;it is the balkanization of the mind.By treating AI as a "cyber-weapon"rather than a commercial tool,the U.S.is forcing even its closest allies to build redundant,less efficient systems to ensure they aren't "unplugged"by Washington's shifting political winds.This trend is likely to drive a massive capital flight from U.S.cloud services toward sovereign cloud initiatives in Europe and


# Infrastructure Fragility in the "Boiling"Era


The simultaneous reduction in power at Krško (Slovenia),Paks (Hungary),and Cernavodă (Romania)reveals a systemic vulnerability in European energy policy:the reliance on rivercooled thermal and nuclear power.As the "boiling"era makes stable river levels a thing


of the past,the continent faces a permanent energy deficit during summer months.The desperation of Romanian authorities,who blasted rocks with explosives to divert water toward their nuclear plant,serves as a grim preview of the "climate-engineering-bynecessity"that will define the next


# INTERNAL DYNAMICS &DOMESTIC INSTABILITY


# Bosnia and Herzegovina:The Exhausted Mandate


The "Trojka"coalition is increasingly
viewed as imposed and ineffective,failing to address the fundamental economic grievances of the working class while participating in the same patronage networks they once criticized.The miner protests are a symptom of a state that can no longer provide the basic "social contract"—wages for work and health care for the sick.
•


Milorad Dodik's opportunistic celebration
of the Trump victory indicates a strategy of "trading"state assets and sovereignty for personal and political survival,betting that a transactional U.S.administration will lift sanctions in exchange for regional concessions.
•


# Germany:Industrial De-structuring


The Volkswagen crisis in Zwickau is a
bellwether for German industrial decay.The potential closure of a flagship electric vehicle plant,a key pillar of the "Green Transition,"threatens the economic stability of entire regions and suggests that the German model of high-wage,highenergy manufacturing is terminal.
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# EXTERNAL DYNAMICS &GLOBAL POSTURE


# The Fragmentation of Global Maritime Policing


The U.S.naval posture in the Middle East is transitioning from "Global Policeman"to "Aggressive Combatant."Trump's rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz signals a willingness to use kinetic force to resolve economic blockades,a departure from the "freedom of navigation"missions of the past.Conversely,the Iran-Oman negotiations show regional powers attempting to build a "postAmerican"security architecture,where local actors manage critical chokepoints without Western intermediation.This reflects a broader global move toward minilateralism,where small groups of regional states solve problems that global institutions like the UN or NATO are too paralyzed to


# THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


Market sentiment is increasingly dominated by energy security premiums and the fallout from U.S.regulatory shifts.The global toy collectibles market,estimated at $35billion,remains a bright spot,but industrial sectors are in freefall.Supply chains are being fundamentally rewired by tech bans and maritime


# Key Economic Vectors


Energy Costs:Oil prices dropped 5%on rumors of a 60-day Hormuz deal,but longterm energy stability is threatened by nuclear throttling and low hydro-output.•


Labor Crisis:Volkswagen is considering
cutting 100,000jobs and closing four German factories as the EV transition falters under high costs.
•


Banking Integration:Bosnia and
Herzegovina has officially applied for SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area),a critical move for facilitating cheaper remittances and European trade integration.
•


Debt &Arrears:Bosnian mines owe 175
million KM in health insurance contributions,illustrating the systemic insolvency of the Federation's state-owned enterprises.
•


# LEADERSHIP CHANGES


The day's events highlight a shift toward disruptive appointees in the U.S.and embattled incumbents in international


Robert Kennedy Jr.(U.S.HHS
Secretary):Emerging as a highly contentious figure,he is prioritizing investigations into vaccines and ultraprocessed foods,fundamentally challenging the NIH/CDC status quo.
•


Jani Infantino (FIFA President):
Currently in "crisis mode"following the failure of his privatization plan;his authority is being openly questioned by UEFA and legendary players.
•


Denis Ljamin (Russian Military):
Appointed by Putin to lead the new "Unmanned Systems Force,"signaling Russia's commitment to long-term autonomous warfare.
•


Mattias Jaisle (Newcastle United):
Appointed as manager following Eddie Howe's departure,signaling a shift toward German-style high-pressing tactics in the Premier League.
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# EDITORIAL POSTURE &STORY HIERARCHY


The network's Lead Stories focused on the local and immediate:the Zenica miner strike and the anniversary of the Omarska camp.These stories lean into national trauma and the failure of the current administration to protect the working class.The broadcast then pivoted to Global Threats,specifically the Kyiv bombings and the Hormuz crisis,maintaining an underlying tone of pessimism and cynicism regarding the durability of peace.Buried Stories included the specific details of "slavery"in Italian agriculture,which were presented as a far-off "terrible image"rather than a systemic European failure.Conspicuous Omissions included any meaningful discussion of Bosnia's specific plan to transition away from coal,despite the coal mines literally collapsing under the weight of their own debt during the


# GEOPOLITICAL FRAMING


The day's reporting paints a world where the "Strongman"model of leadership is ascendant and the "Bureaucratic/Institutional"model is in


# COUNTRIES and LEADERS


Donald Trump (United States):Framed
as "consequential"but highly aggressive and transactional.Quoted as threatening that Iran will "get hit very hard"if the Strait isn't opened,portraying a leader who views military force as a first-tier negotiating tool.
•


Vladimir Putin (Russia):Portrayed as a
technocratic warmonger,adapting his military for a new era of drone strikes while domestic Russian logistics (Wildberries)become vulnerable to counter-attacks.
•


Milorad Dodik (Republika Srpska):Characterized by critics as a "trader"who is "ready to trade both living and non-living property"to stay in power and protect his assets under the new U.S.administration.•


Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine):Depicted as desperate but principled,constantly pleading for air defense systems to prevent "horrific human casualties"as his cities burn without adequate protection.•


# NON-STATE &CORPORATE ACTORS


Volkswagen:Framed as a failing symbol of
German strength,no longer a guarantor of regional prosperity but a source of "anger,disappointment,and despair."
•


Anthropic:Portrayed as a pawn of U.S.
geopolitics,whose cutting-edge safety research is being weaponized by the state to enforce technological hegemony.
•


Bosnian Miners:Depicted as abandoned
heroes of an old economy,literally "trapped"in a system that extracts their labor but refuses to pay for their health insurance.
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# INFORMATION WARFARE ENVIRONMENT


The informational landscape is currently defined by Historical Revisionism and Strategic


Narrative Seeding:In Serbia and Croatia,
the "Oluja"(Operation Storm)anniversary is being used to re-litigate the 1990s,with Belgrade framing it as "the face of Vučić's Serbia"while Zagreb celebrates it as a "brilliant military victory"without precedents.
•


Propaganda/RAK Dispute:Five
associations of genocide victims have filed a complaint against RTRS for allegedly calling the Mothers of Srebrenica a "money factory,"a clear instance of weaponized disinformation aimed at delegitimizing victims of war crimes.
•


AI-Enabled Scams:"Scam factories"in
Southeast Asia are now using AI to clone voices and images,creating a "globalized audience"for fraud that is becoming indistinguishable from reality.
•


# HYPOTHESES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK


The European Energy Pivot:If river
levels do not recover by 2027,the EU will be forced to abandon its "River-Cooling"strategy,leading to a trillion-euro emergency investment in offshore wind and sea-water-cooled nuclear facilities.
•


Trump's "Grand Bargain"in the
Balkans:There is a high likelihood that the U.S.will lift sanctions on Dodik in early 2027in exchange for a "normalization"deal that weakens the central Bosnian state but stabilizes the regional power balance in favor of Belgrade and Zagreb.
•


The Rise of Open-Source AI:The U.S.
ban on AI access will fail to stop technology transfer;instead,it will supercharge the Chinese open-source ecosystem,making Beijing the default provider of AI tools for the "Global South."
•


# STRATEGIC FORESIGHT


Short Term (1-4Weeks):Expect intensified labor unrest in the Federation of Bosnia as miner protests spread to other sectors.In the U.S.,the finalized "Hormuz Deal"could lead to a temporary crude oil price crash,followed by extreme volatility as the U.S.Navy maintains its presence.Short-term internet terminal shutdowns by Starlink will cause temporary disruptions in SE Asian scam operations before they migrate to new hardware at different


Medium Term (1-6Months):The EU will likely introduce digital sovereignty laws mandating that critical AI models be hosted on European soil.In Germany,the Zwickau plant's fate will trigger a broader recession across East Germany,fueling support for populist factions.U.S.Health policy will see regulatory rollbacks on several vaccines,leading to localized measles outbreaks at record


Long Term (1-5Years):Global finance will be forced to overhaul encryption as quantum computing threats move from the lab to the real world to avoid catastrophic loss of confidence.The "Strait of Hormuz"


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management will likely remain a shared Iranian-Omani responsibility,marking the permanent end of U.S.maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf.


# RISK ASSESSMENT


Risk:Sudden collapse of the Bosnian energy grid due to labor strikes and insolvency.Triggers:Failure to pay miner health insurance by the end of August.Likelihood:High.Impact:Massive power outages and social unrest in major cities.Mitigations:Immediate emergency injection of funds from the Federal budget and restructuring of Elektroprivreda debts.•


Risk:Kinetic military conflict in the Strait
of Hormuz.Triggers:A failure of the Oman-Iran maritime negotiations or a U.S."pre-emptive"strike against IRGC naval assets.Likelihood:Moderate-High.Impact:Oil spike to $150+,global supply chain freeze.Mitigations:Direct U.S.-Iran backchannel communication and Omani mediation.
•


Risk:Systemic failure of the European
summer power supply.Triggers:Sava and Danube river temperatures remaining above 28°C for more than 14consecutive days.Likelihood:High (recurring).Impact:De-industrialization of Central Europe and energy rationing.Mitigations:Accelerated transition to non-thermal cooling $\mathrm{a n d}\qquad\mathrm{g r i d}$interconnection remodeling.
•


Risk:Global cyber-attack launched by
"autonomous"AI agents.Triggers:Proliferation of "Fable-class"models via data leaks or state-backed Chinese opensource releases.Likelihood:Moderate.Impact:Crippling of critical infrastructure (banking,power)in seconds.Mitigations:International cooperation on frontier AI regulation and "patch-first"AI defense deployments.
•


Risk:Rapid resurgence of preventable
diseases (Measles)in the U.S.Triggers:Official HHS messaging questioning MMR safety leads to vaccination rates dropping below 80%.Likelihood:High.Impact:Thousands of pediatric hospitalizations and deaths.Mitigations:Strong state-level public health counter-campaigns and transparent debate on scientific data.
•


$\mathrm{o f}$


# GAPS &BLIND SPOTS


The Role of China in Hormuz:While the
broadcast focuses on the U.S.,Iran,and Oman,China's role as the primary buyer of Iranian oil and its potential to guarantee the Strait's security is completely ignored.
•


Bosnia's Green Transition Reality:The
news highlights miner suffering but fails to mention if there is any functional plan for renewable energy to replace the coal pits that are clearly dying.
•


Technical Details of the AI "Jailbreak":
The Trump administration cited a vulnerability in Fable 5as the reason for the ban,but the broadcast provides no technical verification of whether this was a real flaw or a political pretext.
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The "Wildberries"Context:The strike on
the Russian Amazon equivalent is mentioned,but the broadcast doesn't explain its importance to the Russian military logistics or its impact on civilian morale.
•


# CONTRARIAN NARRATIVE SCENARIOS


# The "Paper Tiger"Hegemony


The U.S.AI ban and threats in Hormuz may not be a show of strength,but a desperate cover for waning influence.By cutting off AI access,the U.S.admits it can no longer compete on innovation alone and must resort to blockade tactics.If Europe successfully builds its own models,the U.S.loses its primary leverage over the continent's digital economy.Black Swan:A total U.S.techinfrastructure divorce where the Dollar is decoupled from the global digital trade


# The Organized Crime/State Fusion


The reported "clashes of criminal groups"in East Sarajevo (Elez vs.Ždrale)might not be traditional crime,but state-sanctioned paramilitary housekeeping.As regional leaders (Dodik,etc.)prepare for a new geopolitical alignment,they may be purging "loose ends"from the previous decade's smuggling and intelligence networks.Black Swan:A high-level assassination of a Trojka leader that triggers a state of emergency and the postponement of local


# RECOMMENDATIONS &IMPLICATIONS


# For Statecraft/Public Sector:


Security:Allies must immediately begin
developing non-U.S.dependent cyberdefense stacks to mitigate the risk of being "turned off"during a diplomatic crisis.
•


Economic:Bosnia should prioritize the
SEPA integration as a survival mechanism against the collapse of its traditional industrial sectors.
•


Diplomatic:Small and middle powers
should pivot toward Omani-style "niche diplomacy"to manage regional flashpoints where major powers have become too erratic to lead.
•


# For Private Sector/Investors:


Supply Chains:Manufacturing reliant on
Central European power (Germany,Hungary)must diversify to regions with sea-cooled energy assets.
Tech Allocation:Avoid over-exposure to U.S.-only AI platforms;invest in opensource and localized LLM deployments to ensure business continuity.
Logistics:Maritime insurance premiums for the Persian Gulf will remain high;factor in the permanent possibility of a 30-day Strait closure in all contingency planning.•
•
•


# LEGISLATIVE ROUNDUP


Recent legislative actions show a trend toward economic integration in the


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Balkans and protectionism in the U.S.and


# BILLS DISCUSSED/DEBATED:•


Bosnia SEPA Application:A strategic
move to integrate Bosnia into the European payment system,intending to lower transaction costs and boost foreign investment.
◦


Croatian Veteran Pension Laws:
Proposals to increase pensions based on length of service in the "Oluja"operation,aimed at securing the veteran voting bloc.
◦


U.S.AI Export Controls:The Trump administration's emergency ban on AI model access for foreign nationals,intended to prevent "military diversion."◦


# HEARINGS &PRESS EVENTS:•


Zenica ZZO Press Conference:
Detailing the 175million KM debt of the coal mines and the temporary 30-day health card extension for miners.
◦


Strait of Hormuz Fox News
Interview:Trump's threat-heavy segment detailing his intent to force the waterway open through "massive attacks."
◦


# KEY STORIES


The Zenica Miner Siege:Miners remain
in the Raspotočje pit for a second night demanding 2.5million KM in unpaid wages and health insurance for May and June.
•


Kyiv Infrastructure Devastation:
Russian strikes kill 17,hitting railway stations and logistics centers;Zelenskyy blames lack of air defense.
•


Hormuz Maritime Deal:Iran and Oman
near a joint control agreement for the Strait,potentially removing the need for U.S.naval "protection."
•


Anthropic Model Ban:Trump blocks
foreign access to Fable 5AI,citing security flaws and the risk of automated cyber warfare.
•


VW Zwickau Closure Threat:Thousands
of jobs in East Germany are at risk as Volkswagen considers shutting its most modern EV plant.
•


European Nuclear Throttling:Low rivers
force Krško,Paks,and Cernavodă to slash energy output during a heatwave.
•


Omarska Camp Anniversary:Victims
commemorate 34years since the opening of the camp,where 700people were murdered.
•


RFK Jr.Vaccine Debate:The HHS
Secretary confronts CNN over the link between vaccines and autism,promoting new "environmental"studies.
•


The "Cjeduljica"Scandal:Reports of
Bosnian politicians using handwritten notes to appoint unqualified party members to civil service jobs.
•


Quantum Computing Breakthrough:
Researchers at ETH Zurich manipulate single atoms to build quantum computers that could break current banking encryption.
•


Galapagos Tortoise Return:158giant tortoises reintroduced to Floreana Island after 150years as "ecosystem engineers."•


Italian Farm "Slavery":Four migrant
workers burned alive in a vehicle after protesting exploitative conditions in Italian fruit fields.
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Roma Policing in Greece:Greek police
deploy 24-hour patrols in Roma neighborhoods,leading to accusations of racism and stigmatization.
•


Stevan Filipović Assault:A director in
Belgrade is beaten after photographing men writing political graffiti;he blames the "face of Vučić's Serbia."
•


Mo Salah's Turkish Reception:
Thousands of fans flood the airport in Trabzon as the Egyptian star signs a twoyear deal.
•


FIFA Privatization Collapse:Infantino's
botched attempt to sell World Cup rights to private investors leads to calls for his resignation.
•


Berghof Documentary Center:
Expansion of the Hitler documentation site at Obersalzberg as interest in Nazi history spikes.
•


German Volunteer Craft Year:A new
program in Germany allows youth to try four different crafts over a year to combat the skilled labor shortage.
•


Underwater Data Centers:China
launches a submerged server site off Shanghai to use natural ocean cooling.
•


London Cost Crisis:Analysis of how 41
pounds a day is the "budget"limit for tourists in the increasingly expensive UK capital.
•


The Prodigy in Sarajevo:The legendary
band to play Grbavica stadium as a kick-off to the Film Festival.
•


Diamond Vision Sunglasses:Infomercial
for ergonomic magnetic glasses to "luxury"your eyes.ADVERTISEMENT.
•


Confisox:Promotion for zippered
compression socks to treat swelling and circulation.ADVERTISEMENT.
•


# ABOUT THIS REPORT


Today's Media Trends is a public interest experiment in applying deep thematic trend analysis to television news coverage from around the world to explore how responsibly applied advanced AI can help journalists and scholars better understand the overarching trends,themes and patterns of our global


# No data is used to train or tune any AI


Each morning,in collaboration with the Internet Archive's TV News Archive,we apply Google's Gemini 3to deeply examine yesterday's coverage from each television news channel to tease out the overarching themes and trends of its news coverage into a richly annotated thematic analysis.Each highlevel insight is connected back to the original broadcast,allowing journalists and scholars to understand the dominate themes and trends and instantly click out to the underlying sources for


By helping journalists and scholars see the broader trends and patterns of global news coverage,this analysis helps them identify relevant stories and coverage they might not otherwise have encountered and uncover connections,emphases and narrative shifts that enable more comprehensive reporting and deeper,evidence-based


This report is entirely machine generated using Gemini 3and may include errors and omissions.Please verify all findings.No data is used to train or tune any AI


For questions or suggestions,please contact kalev.leetaru5@gmail.com.To learn more or subscribe to our free daily newsletters,visit https://blog.gdeltproject.org/announcing-our-new-daily-todays-trends-on-capitol-hill-todays-


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