Croatia: N1 Croatia

Broadcasts covered (25)

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# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS


N1HRV


S E P T E M B E R 17,2026


# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS


N1HRV


S E P T E M B E R 17,2026


GEOPOLITICAL REALIGNMENT ACCELERATES AS THE EUROPEAN UNION PIVOTS TOWARD CANADA AMID INTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCANDALS AND THE COLLAPSE OF DOMESTIC POLITICAL


# DAY-AT-A-GLANCE


September 17,2026,marks a critical inflection point for European "strategic autonomy"as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen utilized her State of the Union address to propose a radical expansion of the European project:offering Canada status as the first associate member of the European Union.This move,framed as a "Save for the Future,"represents a desperate defensive maneuver against the looming threat of U.S.isolationism and potential trade hostilities under a returning Trump administration.The proposal immediately triggered threats of massive tariffs from Donald Trump,signaling a potential trade war that could fracture the traditional Transatlantic alliance and force a total re-evaluation of global supply chains for critical minerals,energy,and AI


In Croatia,the government is besieged by a cascading environmental and public health crisis centered on the illegal dumping of toxic waste in Gospić.The discovery of approximately 37,000tons of hazardous industrial,electronic,and medical waste—much of it imported—has exposed systemic failures in regulatory oversight and sparked a localized "Nimbi"effect,as other regions violently reject plans to relocate the contaminated material.The crisis has mutated into a governance failure,with the Prime Minister resorting to misogynistic rhetoric to deflect from allegations of "environmental terrorism"and systemic corruption within the Ministry of Health and the State


Regional stability in the Balkans has been further unsettled by the Hague's first-instance verdict sentencing former Kosovo leaders Hašim Tači and Jakup Krasnići to 25years in prison for war crimes.The verdict triggered immediate unrest in Pristina and exposed the fragile nature of reconciliation in the region,coinciding with renewed tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the glorification of Ratko Mladić.Collectively,these events portray a European Union struggling to manage its internal decay and historical ghosts while simultaneously attempting to forge a new,resilient democratic bloc with North American partners to survive an increasingly anarchic international


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# MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS


The "Canada Pivot"and Transatlantic
Fracturing:The EU has officially invited Canada to join as an associate member,focusing on a technological and energy alliance covering the Arctic,critical minerals,and AI.This is a direct challenge to the U.S.hegemony over Canadian trade and a preemptive strike against Trump's protectionist agenda.
•


The Gospić Toxic Waste Crisis:A
massive environmental scandal involving the illegal burial of toxic industrial waste has become a national security issue for Croatia.The failure of the state to monitor cross-border waste traffic has led to soil and groundwater contamination,triggering a political firestorm in the European Parliament.
•


Hague Sentencing of OVK Leadership:
The conviction of Hašim Tači and his associates for war crimes has re-opened deep wounds in Kosovo and Serbia.The 25-year sentences are viewed by many in Pristina as an attack on the liberation struggle,leading to clashes with police and international missions like EULEX.
•


The Divergent Energy Future:Reports highlight a growing schism in European energy strategy:Finland is doubling down on nuclear power with the world's first permanent repository for radioactive waste (Onkalo),while Germany struggles to balance its renewable transition with the need for massive battery storage and potential hydrogen imports from Africa.•


Red Sea and Yemeni Escalation:The
Houthi movement is expanding its reach toward the Bab-el-Mandeb strait,threatening not just oil shipments but 20%of the world's web traffic via undersea cables,as the UN warns that military solutions are failing.
•


# KEY GOVERNANCE TOPICS


# Armed Conflict &Militarization


Russia continues massive missile strikes on
Kijev,Dnipro,and Zaporožje,targeting energy infrastructure and residential areas,while Ukraine retaliates with drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.
•


The Sudanese Navy is struggling to
intercept Iranian-backed smuggling of arms and people along the Red Sea coast,highlighting the maritime dimension of the ongoing civil war.
•


# Climate &Extreme Weather


Nepal faces a catastrophic humanitarian
crisis with 1,300confirmed dead due to floods and landslides triggered by permafrost melting and record monsoon temperatures.
Storms and "pijavice"(waterspouts)hit the Istrian coast,prompting high-level meteorological alarms and localized flooding.
•
•


# Critical Infrastructure Security


The stability of the European power grid is
under threat from reactive power imbalances as coal plants are phased out,necessitating a rapid rollout of gridstabilizing "mega-batteries."
•


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Undersea internet cables in the Red Sea
are now considered a primary target for asymmetric threats by Houthi forces.
•


# Diplomacy &Statecraft


Ursula von der Leyen's State of the Union
speech focused on an European Security Alliance as a potential counterweight or supplement to NATO,emphasizing "strategic autonomy."
•


Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney
emphasized that the new EU-Canada alliance is a sovereignty-enhancing measure intended to reduce vulnerability to U.S.economic exploitation.
•


# Legal Warfare &Regulatory Risk


Croatia is facing EU-level scrutiny for
failing to implement the Waste Directive,with the European Parliament investigating "legal loopholes"that allowed toxic waste to cross multiple borders undetected.
•


Former Croatian Minister Alen Ružić is
facing multiple court defeats regarding illegal terminations at KBC Rijeka,signaling a breakdown in administrative legality.
•


# Tech Sovereignty &AI


EU and Canadian leaders are moving
toward a technological alliance on AI and quantum computing to ensure democratic control over foundational technologies.
•


Discussion of "AI Agents"as a tool for
cybersecurity and corporate governance,though concerns remain about "human-inthe-loop"oversight and the risk of automated errors.
•


# DEEP DIVE:TRENDS AND THEMES


# The Weaponization of Waste


A significant trend is the emergence of "waste as a security threat."The Gospić case is not merely an environmental failure but an example of organized environmental crime that exploits the lack of digital tracking and cross-border cooperation.The involvement of Europol suggests that waste trafficking is now a top-tier revenue source for organized crime,comparable to drug trafficking.The public reaction in Croatia—characterized by deep institutional mistrust—shows that environmental degradation is now a primary driver of domestic political instability and civil


# The End of Political Decorum


There is a visible erosion of parliamentary and executive discourse.The Croatian Prime Minister's use of the term "mucica"(little pussycat)to dismiss an opposition deputy,coupled with deputies accusing the government of being a "mafia mecca,"indicates that content-driven debate has been replaced by "cheap emotions"and "economy of attention"tactics.Analysts suggest this toxic communication is a deliberate strategy to marginalize complex problems in favor of populist soundbites,effectively paralyzing meaningful


# Energy Sovereignty:The Finnish vs.German Model


A strategic divergence is hardening within the EU regarding the green transition.Finland is presenting itself as a "pioneer"by combining nuclear power with the Onkalo repository,viewing it as a green,climate-positive solution.In contrast,Germany's transition is


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shown to be increasingly dependent on speculative hydrogen imports from Africa and massive battery storage projects that face high financing risks.This tension threatens the cohesion of the EU's single energy market as states choose fundamentally different paths to carbon


# INTERNAL DYNAMICS &DOMESTIC INSTABILITY


# Croatia:Factionalism and Environmental Failure


Prime Minister Plenković is facing "sharpened knives"within his own party as local HDZ mayors rebel against the central government's attempts to redistribute toxic waste from Gospić to their jurisdictions.•


The formation of a "Scientific Council"for
the Gospić crisis has been criticized as a political shield rather than a technical body,especially given the appointment of the Rector of the University of Zagreb,who lacks waste management expertise,to lead it.
•


Public sentiment is reaching a boiling
point,with pro-environment protests in Gospić uniting the left and right of the political spectrum against a perceived corrupt center.
•


# Germany:The Rise of the Far Right


Chancellor Friedrich Merz has canceled
high-profile international travel to deal with record unpopularity and the surging support for the AfD,which now polls at 30%nationally.
•


Internal CDU/CSU pressure is mounting as
the party blocks have dropped to 20%,suggesting a potential leadership crisis ahead of regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
•


# EXTERNAL DYNAMICS &GLOBAL POSTURE


# EU Strategic Autonomy


The EU is increasingly framing the outside world as a hostile threat matrix.Von der Leyen's speech explicitly linked Russian aggression,Chinese economic pressure,and U.S.unpredictability as reasons for the EU to build its own "Security Alliance."The move to incorporate Canada as an associate member is a strategic play to secure a democratic supply chain for critical minerals (lithium,cobalt)and energy,reducing dependence on both the U.S.and autocratic regimes.The EU is projecting power not through military force,but through "Regulatory Statecraft"—using its market size and standard-setting power to tether other democracies to its


# Balkan Fragility


The Hague's sentencing of the OVK leadership has placed the EU in a defensive position in Kosovo.While the EU calls for reconciliation,the local population views the international justice system as biased,potentially undermining the EU-led dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.This creates an opening for external actors to further destabilize the "soft underbelly"of


# THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


The global economic outlook is dominated by the threat of a renewed trade war and the volatile energy market.Trump's threat of


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"very serious tariffs"against the EU in response to the Canada deal has sent shockwaves through market sentiment.Simultaneously,the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted oil shipments to Europe,driving fuel prices to record highs and fueling inflation.In the tech sector,a "gold rush"for battery storage projects is underway,though high interest rates are delaying green hydrogen projects in


# Key Economic Vectors:


Commodities:Oil prices surging due to
the Hormuz blockade and Red Sea supply disruptions.
•


Trade Policy:Preemptive Canadian-EU
"Save for Future"pact to counter U.S.protectionism.
•


Energy Investment:Finland's nuclear
repository costing billions but promising lower long-term costs compared to Germany's renewable grid.
•


Unemployment:Munich reports the lowest unemployment rate among German cities,despite national economic pressures.•


Inflation:Skyscraping fuel prices causing
rising costs for basic foodstuffs in the Balkans.
•


# LEADERSHIP CHANGES


Political and corporate leadership is in a state of flux due to legal setbacks and shifting geopolitical


Mark Carney (Canada Prime Minister):
Emerging as a key globalist leader,positioning Canada as the "most European non-European state"to diversify away from U.S.reliance.
•


Hašim Tači (Former Kosovo President):
The primary loser of the day;his 25-year sentence effectively ends his political career and removes a key figure from the Kosovo-Serbia normalization process.
•


Alen Ružić (Croatian Minister of Labor):Severely weakened by repeated court losses regarding his tenure as head of KBC Rijeka;his position as Minister of Labor is increasingly untenable given he is legally found to have violated labor rights.•


Krunoslav Capak (Director of HZJZ):
His appointment to the Gospić Scientific Council is being challenged as a conflict of interest,as he leads the institution that produced the initial (and contested)toxicological findings.
•


Dalibor Paus (IDS):Sacked as head of his
party's parliamentary club due to dissenting views on the Gospić waste crisis,highlighting the intra-party fractures the scandal is causing.
•


# EDITORIAL POSTURE &STORY HIERARCHY


The broadcast prioritized domestic environmental scandals and high-level EU diplomacy.The lead story was consistently the Gospić waste crisis and the associated political fallout,including the "mucica"rhetoric.This was followed closely by the "State of the Union"and the EU-Canada associate membership proposal.The network adopted a skeptical and alarmist tone regarding the environmental crisis,framing it as a betrayal of public trust.The Hague verdict on Tači was treated with gravity and caution,focusing on the risk of regional violence.Buried stories included the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Yemen,which was framed as a "forgotten crisis"despite the potential for global internet


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disruptions.Conspicuous Omissions included any detailed analysis of the specific companies responsible for the Gospić dumping,focusing instead on political blame,and a lack of critical questioning regarding the feasibility of Canada actually joining the EU under existing


# GEOPOLITICAL FRAMING


The subtext of the day's coverage suggests a world where traditional "strong"leaders (Trump,Putin)are viewed as existential threats to be managed through new,unconventional alliances.The EU is portrayed as "principled but slow,"desperately trying to innovate its way out of a strategic


# COUNTRIES


Canada:Framed as a friend and stable
partner;described by Carney as a nation that "nobody is going to tell us what language we speak"and one that seeks to be "sovereign and prosperous"via rapprochement with Europe.
•


Russia:Portrayed as a hostile,
aggressive foe;von der Leyen noted the Unija faces its "most insecure position so far"due to aggressive Russia.
•


Croatia:Framed as chaotic and corrupt
regarding domestic affairs;the waste scandal is called a "tragedy"and "environmental terrorism"by concerned citizens.
•


Finland:Portrayed as competent and
forward-thinking regarding energy;a geologist noted feeling "proud that Finland is taking action"on nuclear waste.
•


# LEADERS


Ursula von der Leyen:Framed as
principled but vague;critics like Mirjana Rakić noted she uses a lot of "we need to"but lacks concrete deadlines.
•


Donald Trump:Portrayed as a hostile
and erratic foe;he described Canada as a "terrible trade partner"and threatened that the EU-Canada deal would be a "hostile act".
•


Andrej Plenković:Framed as arrogant and defensive;his dismissive "mucica"comment to Ivana Kekin is being used to characterize him as a leader losing control.•


# NON-STATE &CORPORATE ACTORS


Houthi Movement:Framed as a terrorist
threat capable of asymmetric global damage;they are "unilaterally opening another front"toward the Bab-el-Mandeb.
Scientific Council (Gospić):Portrayed as inept or compromised;local activists express doubt about its independence from the government.
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# INFORMATION WARFARE ENVIRONMENT


The "meta-narrative"of the day is a struggle between "institutional transparency"and "populist


Narrative Seeding:The Croatian
government is attempting to seed the narrative that the Gospić crisis is "opposition hysteria"and a "Nimbi effect,"while the opposition is seeding the narrative of "environmental terrorism."The truth lies in the Europol reports which suggest a systemic failure of cross-border waste monitoring.
•


Misogynistic Distraction:The "mucica"
comment is a classic psychological operation to shift the focus from a technical failure (toxic waste)to a cultural grievance (sexism),effectively dividing the public and muddying the waters of accountability.
•


Propaganda:Trump's rhetoric regarding the EU-Canada deal as a "hostile act"is a clear attempt to intimidate Canadian voters and fracture the European consensus before the Montreal summit in October.•


# HYPOTHESES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK


The "Arctic Entente":The EU-Canada alliance will likely solidify around Arctic security and critical minerals.As the U.S.retreats from climate-focused internationalism,Canada will become the primary resource hub for the EU's green industrial strategy,potentially leading to a formal "Transatlantic Democratic Market."•


Balkan Unrest:The Hague verdict will
trigger a significant rise in radicalization in Kosovo,potentially leading to the withdrawal of some international personnel as the security situation for EULEX and KFOR deteriorates.
•


Croatia's Governance Crisis:The Gospić
scandal is likely to lead to a cabinet reshuffle or the fall of high-ranking officials.The discovery that toxic waste has reached groundwater will likely trigger a massive,decades-long cleanup funded by the EU,further straining Croatia's relationship with the Commission.
•


# STRATEGIC FORESIGHT


Short Term (1-4Weeks):Protests in Croatia will intensify as the "Scientific Council"fails to provide a convincing remediation plan before the fall rains.In Kosovo,further clashes between the OVK supporters and police are highly probable.•


Medium Term (1-6Months):The
Montreal Summit in late October will be the site of a geopolitical showdown between the EU,Canada,and the U.S.administration.Expect formal tariff implementation from the U.S.against Canadian-made European components.
•


Long Term (1-5Years):The EU will likely
successfully integrate Canada as an associate member,fundamentally shifting the global balance of power and creating a "Third Way"for democracies that are neither U.S.-led nor China-dependent.Environmental crime will become a central pillar of EU security policy,with a "Green Interpol"likely created.
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# RISK ASSESSMENT


Critical Infrastructure Collapse
(Digital):Houthi attacks on Red Sea undersea cables.Triggers:Escalation of military action in Yemen or Iranian orders to disrupt "web traffic."Likelihood:Moderate-High.Impact:Catastrophic,as 20%of global web traffic flows through this area.Mitigations:Urgent redundancy planning for global data routing and undersea cable protection missions.
•


Trade War Escalation:U.S.tariffs on the
EU and Canada.Triggers:Formalization of the EU-Canada associate membership.Likelihood:High.Impact:Severe,leading to a skipping of fuel prices and supply chain breakdowns.Mitigations:Accelerating the "Arctic Project"for resource independence and diversifying to African hydrogen.
•


Balkan Security Breach:Re-ignition of Kosovo-Serbia conflict.Triggers:Public anger over the Hague verdict or glorification of war criminals in Belgrade.Likelihood:Moderate.Impact:Regional destabilization.Mitigations:Enhanced KFOR presence and renewed diplomatic pressure on both Belgrade and Pristina.•


Public Health Emergency (Croatia):
Toxic waste seepage into the Adriatic watershed.Triggers:Seasonal flooding in Gospić before cleanup begins.Likelihood:High.Impact:Devastating for tourism and local health.Mitigations:Immediate sealing of the dumping sites and emergency groundwater filtration.
•


EU Political Fracture:Rise of the AfD and
collapse of the German center.Triggers:Defeat of the CDU in regional elections on September 20.Likelihood:Moderate-High.Impact:Paralysis of EU decision-making.Mitigations:Re-evaluating energy prices and fuel subsidies to appease the electorate.
•


# GAPS &BLIND SPOTS


The transcripts do not mention which
specific European companies were the origin of the waste dumped in Gospić,leaving a major hole in accountability.
•


There is no detailed legal analysis of how
"Associate Membership"for Canada can bypass the Lisbon Treaty,which currently limits membership to European states.
•


The specific technological capabilities of the Houthi "electronic warfare"that redirected Ukrainian-bound drones to other territories are mentioned but not explained.•


The reports fail to verify the exact status of
the internet cables in the Red Sea following the Houthi threats,leaving the actual level of current disruption unknown.
•


# CONTRARIAN NARRATIVE SCENARIOS


The "Canada Feint":The associate membership proposal is not a serious diplomatic plan but a tactical distraction by von der Leyen to force the U.S.back to the negotiating table on trade.By appearing to "steal"Canada from the U.S.orbit,the EU is playing a high-stakes game of chicken that it hopes will end in a more favorable Transatlantic deal rather than a formal new


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Black Swan Event:The Gospić waste scandal reveals a much larger,continent-wide network of illegal toxic dumping involving high-level government officials across three EU states.If proven,this could trigger a systemic legitimacy crisis for the European Green Deal,as it would expose that the "green"transition in the West was built on illegal toxic dumping in the


# RECOMMENDATIONS &IMPLICATIONS


# For Statecraft/Public Sector:


Maritime Security:Increase naval patrols
and electronic protection for undersea cable corridors in the Red Sea as asymmetric threats target digital infrastructure.
•


Environmental Oversight:Establish a
mandatory,blockchain-based digital tracking system for all hazardous waste movements across EU borders to eliminate the "loophole"economy.
•


Diplomatic Agility:Prepare for a "multi-
track"Transatlantic relationship where the EU maintains security ties with the U.S.while building a separate economic/resource bloc with Canada.
•


# For Private Sector/Investors:


Energy Strategy:Transition to nuclear-
backed energy solutions in the EU where possible,following the Finnish model,as renewable-only strategies face increasing storage and grid-stability costs.
•


Supply Chain Resilience:Diversify
sourcing for critical minerals away from U.S.-dependent supply chains toward EUCanadian joint projects to mitigate tariff risks.
•


Cyber Compliance:Invest in quantum-
safe encryption and AI-driven cybersecurity agents to protect sensitive data as geopolitical actors target digital infrastructure.
•


# LEGISLATIVE ROUNDUP


The day was marked by urgent legislative reactions to environmental failures and strategic shifts in EU membership


# BILLS DISCUSSED/DEBATED:•


Affordable Housing Act:A proposed
EU regulation to address the 10million unit housing shortage,though criticized for potentially infringing on property rights by banning second-home purchases not for long-term rent.
◦


Waste Management Act (Croatia):
Urgent amendments to introduce GPS tracking and video surveillance for all waste transport,following the Gospić crisis.
◦


High Education &Science Act:
Controversial Croatian legislation pushed through urgent procedures to allow specific senior professors to delay retirement,characterized as a "service to personal wishes."
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# HEARINGS &PRESS EVENTS:•


State of the Union Address:Ursula
von der Leyen's annual speech setting the agenda for strategic autonomy and the Canada alliance.
◦


EU-Canada Summit Announcement:
Planned for October 29-30in Montreal to finalize the details of the new "Save for Future"alliance.
◦


Gospić Scientific Council Briefing:A
closed-door meeting of experts to recommend remediation strategies for the toxic waste crisis.
◦


# KEY STORIES


The Hague Convicts Kosovo Leaders:
Hašim Tači,Jakup Krasnići,Kadri Veselji,and Redžep Selimi receive sentences of 13to 25years for war crimes,leading to clashes in Pristina and international tension.
•


The EU-Canada Associate Membership
Proposal:Von der Leyen and Mark Carney announce plans for a deep strategic alliance covering energy,technology,and defense,sparking threats from Trump.
•


The Gospić Toxic Waste Scandal:
Discovery of 37,000tons of hazardous waste buried illegally in Croatia leads to a national political crisis and EU Parliament debates.
•


Trump's Tariff Threats:Former U.S.President Donald Trump threatens "massive tariffs"and a cessation of trade with the EU if the Canada deal proceeds.•


Finland's Nuclear Bet:The opening of
the Olkiluoto 3reactor and the Onkalo repository positions Finland as a leader in long-term nuclear waste solutions.
•


Red Sea Undersea Cable Threat:Houthi
forces threaten internet infrastructure as they advance toward the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
•


Nepal Floods:Climate-induced disasters
in Nepal leave 1,300dead and thousands missing after unprecedented rock and ice avalanches.
•


The "Mucica"Political Row:Prime Minister Plenković dismisses deputy Ivana Kekin with a misogynistic slur,sparking a nationwide debate on political discourse.•


Sudan's Gold and Sea War:Fighting in
Sudan centers on gold mines and the Red Sea coast,with Russia seeking a naval presence at Chinese-built bases.
•


German Political Crisis:Chancellor Merz
cancels travel as the AfD surges to 30%in national polls,threatening the stability of the coalition.
•


Paris Ballroom Scene:A profile of the
ballroom community in Paris as a refuge for the Black and Queer community against rising racism and marginalization.
•


Nuclear Fusion Record:The Wendelstein
7-X stellarator achieves a world record for plasma discharge,signaling a potential long-term energy breakthrough.
•


Hormuz Blockade Impact:European
companies search for alternative oil sources as Iran-backed forces maintain pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.
•


Srebrenica/Mladić Controversy:Ongoing
regional tensions over the burial and glorification of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić in Belgrade.
•


AI Agents for Cybersecurity:Tech
experts discuss the deployment of AI agents to manage complex municipal and corporate cyber-defense systems.
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Berlin Tourism Tips:A segment on
avoiding the Alexanderplatz "tourist trap"in favor of the Museum Island and historical monuments.
•


Money in Relationships:A study of
gender roles and financial transparency among European couples,showing persistent discomfort with discussing income.
•


Oversized Women's Football
Experiment:A Swiss experiment using supersized pitches to show the physical challenges faced by female footballers playing on male-standard fields.
•


Earthship Sustainable Living:A profile
of a community in the Netherlands living in houses built from recycled tires and bottles,producing their own heat and power.
•


Munich Youth Portrait:A look at growing
up in Munich,highlighting the high cost of living but also the high quality of life and cultural opportunities.
•


Bahrain History and Economy:A
documentary on Bahrain's transition from pearl diving to oil and its strategic importance in the Persian Gulf.
•


# ABOUT THIS REPORT


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